A number of viable routes to $4000 are currently possible, two such probable routes are speculatively explored here using approx BITSTAMP prices.
1. —The current sell-off wave starting from the 24-JUL high at $8497, finds support at $5920 (nearby psychological $6000) which is a Fibonacci 0.618% of the wave-d triangle. —Then, a bounce occurs to retrace a Fibonacci 38.2% to $6900, coinciding with the trendline of the triangle, meeting the CBOE XBT futures expiry on 15-AUG-2018. —Followed by, a second sell-off leg towards $4000 by SEP/OCT.
2. —The current sell-off wave starting from the 24-JUL high at $8497, continues to unfold towards $5220 which is a Fibonacci 0.786% of the wave-d triangle. —Then, a bounce occurs to retrace a Fibonacci 38.2% to $6470, coinciding with CBOE XBT futures expiry on 15-AUG-2018. —Followed by, a second sell-off leg towards $4000 by SEP/OCT.
In summary, current guesswork suggests price to remain bounded between $5220 and $6900 —and possibly ending near either range by CBOE XBT futures expiry on 15-AUG-2018.