It isn't often that I do multiple simultaneous analysis on the same coin, but when I do, that's when you know something big is happening. Bitcoin looks great! Bitcoin is trading right at the side-wards support line, and does look quite bullish. Price did yesterday correct back to the horizontal support zone exactly as my previous analysis predicted (See related ideas below for more details of my previous analysis), price had candlestick reversal candles when it hit the side-wards support and it really does look as though the upside is possible. I know that price is now likely to go up, but the question now simply is, WHERE.
There is 2 ways this trade will play out:
- Bitcoin trades up and hits the first horizontal resistance zone between 6800 and 6910, then breaks down once to the side-wards support once again, before finally having sufficient momentum to go to the upside.
- Bitcoin trades higher, breaks the first horizontal resistance zone between 6800 and 6910, then uses the first horizontal resistance zone as a support level, before then going to the higher horizontal resistance zone between 7230 and 7360.
Bear in mind, whichever scenario plays out, price will probably find minor/retest resistance at the 200 major moving average resistance at 6700 before the new up move begins.
I will update this idea if it receives sufficient attention.
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Price is looking neutral/slightly bearish on the recent 4 hour candlestick. This could imply weakness as the candlestick body is closely approaching the side-wards support line at 6560.
Now price can do one of two things
- Maintain support on the side-wards support line at 6560. - Price falls below the side-wards support line and fall lower towards the horizontal support zone between 6370 and 6260 before the up move.
Either way, there is still a bullish bias here in the short to mid term.
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Price is moving down in accordance with our previous update. Bitcoin had an upside move after hitting a low at 6420, correction slightly against the short term bearish impulse leg, then the bears jumped back in again.
Price will now make a downside move to the horizontal support zone as predicted between 6370 and 6270, then I will consider my options.
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Price has broken below the side-wards support line at 6630 and since then there has been candlestick reversal signals. Price also simultaneously found resistance at the 20 moving average, and has found resistance at the candlestick wick high with the 200 major moving average resistance also.
This implies that in or around this area could be acting as a resistance ceiling and it could signal a short term market correction to the downside before the next move up. The ideal place to look for a long opportunity is at the retest of the horizontal support zone in between 6370 and 6270.
If price breaks to the upside and has a candlestick body close above 6640, then I assume the downside correction is negated and more upside is to come.
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Price is looking quite hesitant at the side-wards resistance line. If price closes above 6670 then the bull trend will run, however if price stays below current levels and starts to make a downside move, then price will start a downside move to around 6370 and 6260 where I assume price will bounce and likely start a new bull run.
The support zone at 6370 is actually extremely strong. And I'f be highly surprised if it goes lower than this level.
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Price came down as predicted, and then had a rapid correction when it hit the 50 moving average which was a key level to watch!
Price is now trading above the bullish territory level, and now we can look for bullish bias trades. Everything is running perfectly in the analysis and now we can begin to make money! :-)
Anyone who wasn't patient enough and did their own thing, sorry for your losses. You really need to grasp some patience before you blow your accounts (And yes I'm talking about a few specific noobs who troll my posts just because they can't trade as well as TomProTrader can! ;-)
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Pretty much everybody here expose their Technical Analysis, trying to guess the next trend based on the movement of the "bitcoin value" and betting on short term. A lot of you are great at it,
But there isn't much analysis on the fundamentals. The reasons people buy/sell bitcoin, and why there isn't so much volume lately. Without them, TA is just a zero-sum game I'll give some ideas about it.
There is of course the intentions of whales, who hold huge amounts of bitcoin and so have a huge power of manipulation. We could think that their interest is to get the value higher, but it's not as simple as that... They also don't want bitcoin to crash. Which means they need other people exchanging bitcoin. Quite difficult to guess their intentions.
There are longs, people who bet that bitcoin is going to be a universal currency, much more valued than it is today. They are the main fuel for the rallies. But they got burned and probably wait for a better opportunity to get in the game, at a lower level than the $5'800 seen recently. Probably on some long-term trend that started back in the beginning of 2017... or even before.
And there are the miners. Everyday, 1800 bitcoin ($11.5 millions at $6'500/btc) are mined. But their electricity costs can't probably be paid in btc, so they probably have to sell them, pushing price down. Since december, the hashrate increased by 300%, kicking out most of retail miners. OTOH, bitcoin value decreased by 3. Very recently, the hashrate was in stagnation, so my guess is that they can't make any profit below $7'000. They probably try to sell their btc at the highest value possible, but they can't wait for long as bills are coming every month.
There is of course other participants, institutional short sellers, the impact of MSM news, etc. But if everything is still... There is always the miners that have a bearish effect.
TomProTrader
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@titouille78, None of these factors matter. You can still use technical analysis to make profitable trading decisions. This is how I've tracked Ethereum and Bitcoins movements for over 1.5 months without a single hitch, because I am using a well versed trading strategy.
Fundamental factors in Cryptocurrency bear less value than fundamentals in other asset classes (In my opinion strictly). Also, you can see fundamentals within the price action, but this part is too long to explain here. Maybe I'll go into that another day.
VisionCodeX
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Just another dead-cat bounce....not sure why people are jumping in at these prices.
BTC's price action and volume says it all -- this thing wants to go lower before resuming any meaningful upside.
Not a buyer until~3K-4.5K.
Save your money.
TomProTrader
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@Akhokhar86, If you think a price has to go 50% of it's entire price to the downside before a buy, then you'll miss like 47 good buy opportunities, even if they're short term. Not to mention shorts.
Spend your money.
VisionCodeX
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@TomProTrader, I hear where you are coming from, however, I'm just looking at charts. It's telling you that the floor is not in. Sure, as most dead-cat bounces, we could see BTC move higher short-term, so if you are timing this, it's tradeable. But not much room to do so, better opportunities in the stock market.
People have been saying "buy the dip" and "this time is different" as BTC fell to 19K, 17K, 15K, 10K, 7K and now ~6.5K. Even the most optimistic bulls both on Wall Street and in the Venture Capital community say we have more downside before a serious uptrend can begin (redemptions have a lot to do with it).
Overall, I could care less about the BTC debate, I know it's a tradable, not a long-term investment. But right now, the risk/reward is not in your favor.
I do appreciate your analysis!
TomProTrader
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@Akhokhar86, Depends on how long you're analyzing Bitcoin over.
For short term it's excellent.
I think you're looking at it from an investment perspective.
Thanks for your thoughts.
Team_Bitfuture
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@Akhokhar86, Hello Sir, these people who say "Buy the dip" current a bear market, didn't understand.
"Buy the dip" is only successful in bull market.
VisionCodeX
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@OtenMoten, And BTC is in a bull market?
TomProTrader
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@Akhokhar86, Nope, but again this goes back to what I said yesterday... That you're only looking at it from an investment perspective, not a trading one, hence why you're missing all the action dreaming for 3k.
Sad but true.
VisionCodeX
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@TomProTrader, Lol, missing what action? So what's your near-term price target?
People also said I was dreaming when I said BTC was going to 6K when it was trading at ~12K. Sad for those that kept buying the dip...
But there isn't much analysis on the fundamentals. The reasons people buy/sell bitcoin, and why there isn't so much volume lately. Without them, TA is just a zero-sum game I'll give some ideas about it.
There is of course the intentions of whales, who hold huge amounts of bitcoin and so have a huge power of manipulation. We could think that their interest is to get the value higher, but it's not as simple as that... They also don't want bitcoin to crash. Which means they need other people exchanging bitcoin. Quite difficult to guess their intentions.
There are longs, people who bet that bitcoin is going to be a universal currency, much more valued than it is today. They are the main fuel for the rallies. But they got burned and probably wait for a better opportunity to get in the game, at a lower level than the $5'800 seen recently. Probably on some long-term trend that started back in the beginning of 2017... or even before.
And there are the miners. Everyday, 1800 bitcoin ($11.5 millions at $6'500/btc) are mined. But their electricity costs can't probably be paid in btc, so they probably have to sell them, pushing price down. Since december, the hashrate increased by 300%, kicking out most of retail miners. OTOH, bitcoin value decreased by 3. Very recently, the hashrate was in stagnation, so my guess is that they can't make any profit below $7'000. They probably try to sell their btc at the highest value possible, but they can't wait for long as bills are coming every month.
There is of course other participants, institutional short sellers, the impact of MSM news, etc. But if everything is still... There is always the miners that have a bearish effect.