MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
2083 10 26
Golds Gain - Bitcoins Loss

Stock Charts -

Looking over these two charts, Bitcoin and Gold             . I like to predict patterns before they happen, and I see two patterns shaping up with Gold             and Bitcoin . Bitcoin is developing a classic double top pattern and Gold             a double bottom.

For Bitcoin , we will see confirmation of a double top only if the .382 support is met and held. For major market double tops, you measure supports with the previous bottom support ($49) breakout with the recent top ($1239). .382 Fibonacci level is usually the key area to find a support after the completion of the third wave of Elliot Wave pattern. Combining Elliot Wave with Double Top pattern idea, this would suggest a fifth wave failure for Bitcoin . Double Tops can have +/-3% differential from previous top. I also measured .382 level with the top to get a $452 difference. You can calculate the final outcome (Target 4) by subtracting the measured move (-$452) from .382 support/resistance, and you get ~ $310.

Gold             Take -

As for Gold             , we have the exact opposite happening. Gold             is forming a double bottom, and is ready for the next breakout. Political events have been known to have a major factor in price moves. IMO this debt ceiling debate will be hard fought which will cause unstability in the equity market, which benefits the metals. Also, we have a dovish Federal Reserve that wants to continue the $85 billion monthly bond purchases until mid-2014 and maybe through 2015. Combining unstability in US Government and a lacks Federal Reserve will push Gold             to my fourth target of $1700 XAU/USD             .

Deadline for US Debt Limit is early March according to US Treasury Secretary Lew

Here is a news brief on the next U.S. Government debt debate...

It was just last month that U.S. lawmakers brokered a deal suspending the debt ceiling through February 7 to end the government shutdown, and the Treasury Department could continue borrowing. After February 7, Treasury will still be able to use the "extraordinary measures" to stave off default.

With the current national debt at an unprecedented $17.1 trillion (One analyst thinks it could double to $34 trillion), any reasonably intelligent person would wonder how long this kicking-the-can band-aid will last. Both the Bipartisan Policy Center and Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew have estimated that the extraordinary measures would run out in a month or so, i.e. by March, 2014.

Now according to a report issued today by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), U.S. may be able to push the debt ceiling deadline to as late as June because the income tax receipts around the April 15 tax deadline may provide more cash cushion to meet scheduled obligations.





http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-to-reach-real-debt-limit-in-march-or-june-2014-cm304158#ixzz2mL63WCqU
snapshot


Bitcoins big negative divergence.

IT's not done going down just yet.
+1 Reply
looks like it is stabilizing, as for gold the buy didn't last long and is still dropping today www.bitcoinprices.info
Reply
myselfbtc
3 years ago
by bitcoin logic the true value of bitcoin = moon so your chart must be wrong j/k
Reply
coinomist
3 years ago
Thanks for sharing this idea. Just a thought of mine: This idea assumes, that loss in bitcoin will transfer to gain in gold. However, I am not sure if the majority of gold and bitcoin investors belong to the same class. People in on gold are typically 'save human being', wheres people in on bitcoins are more 'avantgardistic' and willing to take higher risks I would say. Also, I cannot see any significant interrelation between these two assets. For instance, April 2013, same behavior in both assets.
Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO coinomist
3 years ago
That's interesting thought on the psychological thinking of these two types of investors. I was under the impression that many of the "buy guns, seeds, ammo" and gold/silver, and or now bitcoin, fell in the same category. Although, the more tech savy "guns, seeds, ammo" crowd would opt for bitcoins.
+2 Reply
artiguste coinomist
3 years ago
Are you my brain ? You wrote exactly what I think !
Reply
coinomist artiguste
3 years ago
well i think it's obvious, i mean the thought, not that i am your brain ;-)
anyway, i am interested to see if this double top/bottom will show up.
+1 Reply
snapshot


5th Wave Failure ... now B to C drop
+2 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
snapshot
+2 Reply
Hatmans
2 years ago
Not bad
Reply
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