Right now the price of bitcoin is acting quite interesting in 2 ways.
1. It did not go below the pitchfork support as well as the 10 EMA on a monthly chart (~7800 USD).
2. Every time the price can close above the previous opening price on a weekly chart, it usually means that we can expect another rally to the upside. This is especially true when the price of bitcoin has just retraced significantly or for those who can read Elliott wave, if it happens at the end of wave C. For this current retracement it has already retraced ~40% which is just slightly under 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This means by the end of this week, if the price can close above the previous week's opening at ~8065 USD, we could see the price rally up for the next few weeks or months and potentially making a new high above 14k.
In the graph here, I circled the event when the price did close above the previous week's opening and rallied up. I also triangled the event when the price did close above the previous week's opening but then soon rallied back down.
The differences between them might not be so obvious but for those who know Elliott wave, you should be able to see that most of the price action I circled tends to be at the end of wave C (in medium timeframe as well as a bigger timeframe). In contrast, most of the price action I make the triangle tends to be in wave A or middle of the B wave.
Keep a close eye on the price action toward the end of this week because if it can close above 8065 USD then it would be a very good sign that the price can rally to the upside for the next few weeks or so.
A few concerns I have here is that if it does follow this pitchfork, the price increase would be too fast and too unrealistic (even though I wouldn't mind if that happens as it would mean by the end of 2021/early 2022 we'll be at 100k XD). The price is also currently below 200 days EMA and there is no crossing of fisher transformer on the weekly chart just yet. So I might be catching the bottom a bit early and hence, position sizing is key.
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Just a quick update now that the weekly price has closed above the previous weekly opening price, it is quite likely we will see a rally to the upside for bitcoin.
The support for now would be 8065 USD, breaking below this would not be a very good sign and the price may retest 7800 and potentially 5500-6500 (no signs of this at the moment, however).
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Interesting price movement last week when it broke below 8065 and retesting 7800 but then rebound back at 10EMA monthly closing above 8065.
This is a good sign that the bullish is taking over of the bear. We are potentially looking at the price going back above 9k again within the next few weeks.
IMHO I think the price will do sideway movement in the 8k-13k range before breaking 14k and a potentially new high in 2020.
Trade closed: stop reached
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Unexpected price movement to the downside following last week positive sign when it's able to close over 8065.
Right now it came back all the way to the bottom of the 6-year Schiff pitchfork as described in my next trade idea.