Now that we've reached the long awaited target of 23K (22.4k to be exact), my bias favors a bounce higher in this range.
There are multiple reasons for this: 1. We've reached the oversold/ outside of the bollinger bands on high time frames on the RSI indicators I use. 2. We've reached bounce levels on the RSI that I use. 3. I've had this level on the chart since March 2021 and everytime we've hit one of these levels we've seen a strong reaction to it before falling further. (you can see this in the related ideas below) 4. Sentiment is at extreme lows with people posting charts that we're going to capitulate to 6k in the next month or two (LOL), my mom calling me and telling me that people are telling her bitcoin is a ponzi scheme.
I've been out of the crypto market fully since March and largely since December of 2021. This has been the level I've been waiting for to buy, so I've bought here (21.1k and 22.4k). Could BTC fall a little bit lower? Maybe. I would definitely start questioning this idea if it fell under 19k. However, I favor a bounce at these levels.
I think we're likely to see a large bounce going into the end of summer and into fall and I want to be positioned for it. Based off of the BTC.D chart, and the charts of alts, I think it's best to position in BTC only until we see a significant bounce in BTC and BTC.D starts to correct lower. Then I'll start looking for plays in altcoins again. Based on the altcoin charts, many of them look like they have another leg down so I don't want to start buying them yet.
I'm looking for a final target to exit BTC in the 43k-46k range. However, I've put a strong resistance level of 44k on the chart.
I've also added dates for key pivots in price action on the weekly level.
Let's see what happens from here.
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Even though BTC went below that 22k support, still think this idea is valid. I bought more at 19.6k and 19.1k. Now we sit and wait.
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Once BTC gets back over the 22.4k resistance, my first target on the upside is $32-33k
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Got the break above the 22.4k resistance. Let's see if it can hold/retest as support to see further continuation.
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There is a possibility that we break down from here if we get a rejection at the 22.4k level. I put a stop at my entry incase that happens.
I still have my two buys below at $19.6 and 19.1k. I'll likely keep those to see how price reacts to that level.
If we do sweep those lows, then the next buy zone will be $15-16k. That's where I'll be a buyer with the 22.4k purchase, should I get stopped out.
Still think this idea will play out (at least to 32k) but will have to reassess come mid-August if we get another low.
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All we've done is chop since I posted this. Here's a new idea:
@benjihyam, Look this chart. We share ideas about NUCypher months ago. USDT Dominance maybe start to look like H&S .... I just bet in the mid-term (2-3 month) we going to have a relief on altcoins. Good luck bro!
benjihyam
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@ryd2609, Yeah I agree that there will be some relief. I just think BTC moves first.
arvine11
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i think if price goes near 40k very likely price will retest 24k again then moving for new ath.