We all know that BTC options expire on the last Friday of every month. See on this chart how this has been consistent with Bitcoin's every major rise since December, being around the bottom of every of those mini-phases.
The first Top was on the 2.236 Fibonacci extension from the bottom. The second was on the 1.236 Fib. Since we are past the danger of that turning bearish as the 0.764 Fib broke (1 minus 0.236), then the next top (third) according to the model should be either on the 1.236 Fib (which is at $64500) or on the 2.236 Fib (which is at $75800).
The RSI may be an additional tool for us to identify the next top with the help of the Lower Highs trend-lines (dashed) starting from the January 08 High. Notice also that with the exception of the January mini-cycle, the other two have made their tops closer to the month's last Friday.
So where do you think the High of April will be at?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Hey TS... this is a very interesting and unique way to study it for sure! If you take the average of the moves from low point nearest the last Friday positions that's about $19,100... added to the low nearest the March last Friday, gives us about $69,500 for our next mid last Friday high in April. That lines up fairly closely with the 1.0 autofib level on the BTC/USD 1D Coinbase chart.
Further, if we take the average of the moves up from one last Friday low point (lowest point nearest to) to the next it comes up at about $8,600... adding that to the $50,360 close as the low candle sitting next the March last Friday gives as an April last Friday position of $58,960. So if this pattern remains consistent whereby the high is reached after a last Friday and a pull back occurs before the next last Friday that may be a target with high probability for last Friday of this month.
gichababenson
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@cosmicnexus, from which dates have you added. Give the exact dates where you have summed and find the average
Hey TS... considering on the BTC/USD Coinbase 1D the last Friday in April saw a close of $57,799, my averaging method prediction was reasonably accurate... within 2%... I might test this on some other setups as well!