Bitcoin has broken out of the recent consolidation and is now testing the 11,600 to 12,300 resistance zone (has been on my chart for months). I shared our LONG entry price at 10,675 (see my previous article) and it has reached it's first target at 11,375 for a 700 point gain.
Technical notes and what we are anticipating for the week ahead:
We have reduced our risk by 1/3 and have two more targets. The 11,600 to 12,300 resistance zone has been a tough area to clear so our next target is placed strategically within this zone (shared with members).
Current prices are a location to lock in profits and reduce risk, NOT to add risk based on the rules of our LONG ONLY swing trade strategy.
The broader trend (as defined by the 9K support) is BULLISH. This has been the case for months. This means overall probability favors bullish break outs and HIGHER HIGHS. Shorting this market and expecting 8K is a low probability idea because it is not within proportion, and NO significant supports have been taken out. Funny how many "Gurus" were bearish at the start of the previous week.
A retrace to the 11K whole number support would be ideal for a new swing trade long idea since it was a previous resistance. There is no guarantee Bitcoin will deliver such an opportunity. IF 11K trades and a reversal pattern develops there, we will be prompted to share a new swing trade long.
Inflection points that can potentially be reached over the following week are the 12,300 and 13,600 AREAS.
Why not buy more now if we think it's going above 12K?
Professionals account for RISK FIRST, not rewards. Current levels require a much larger amount of risk which doesn't justify the potential reward based on the chances that price will clear this resistance easily. This view is based on the rules of our SWING trade strategy which is not to be confused with "investing".
If you are long from the 10,675 area, it is a good idea to raise your stop loss to break even after locking in some profit. This makes the trade risk free and IF price retraces to the entry, the outcome is still profitable.
Our trade ideas begin with location first, then confirmation. We do not REACT to information, we do NOT day trade and we do NOT short this market. Simple rules.
Our goal is to remove ourselves from the equation as much as possible and let the market work. No news, no oscillators, no opinions and no nonsense.
I hope you find my analysis helpful. If you do not agree with it, that's good because it takes opposing views to make a market BUT for the benefit of the community, at least share a chart or your reasoning rather than comments like "It's going to 8K first".
btc support is at 11250 now. strong buy at this price!
stoltznerm9
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Thanks Mark good work.
MachiavelliTrader
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I totally agree
andrenik
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Hi Marc, thank you for that last sentence. I find this post helpful as it is, but I wish that last sentence would become a rule for commenting on TradingView.
Nice Idea I agree with you.. but I think we're gonna see 12000 before election.. I'll be happy if you checkout my idea..
seba26-77
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genx7781
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As always awesome analysis and I have made significant amounts of money following his swing trades on my non position trades. Not sure why Marc is giving it away for free!
TopgOptions
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great explanation! my indicators still looking bullish for bitcoin: