A simplified view of current Monthly/Weekly Elliott moves.
I have tried to keep it as clean and easy to see as possible. Forecasted figures here are purely based off the Advanced Get software. As time gets closer to these levels, I will look at forecasting via order blocks & extensions of smaller Elliott wave moves.
Wave 5 Daily
Which is also a 3 Weekly level
Expectations of a 4 move - as per the previous post
Depending on the depth of the 4th wave Will determine the extension up
Levels of interest
This leads to the extension levels here
A deeper corrective will lead to a weekly 5 at closer to 97K another dip for monthly 4. Followed up with a monthly 5 extension around $133,000 level.
Have a good weekend everyone!
Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
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smaller TF views -
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Need to drop down from Daily to get the move up to a smaller B - Agreement with Stochastic and Weekly Stochastic down as per next image.
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As per the Wyckoff breakdown -
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smaller fractal move and supporting the bigger timeframe schematic.
Thanks for your material, always very helpful and balanced. I have a question, can the final parabolic moves of BTC in both 2013 and 2017 be explained by normal range in the final monthly wave 5? By normal range I mean between 1 and 1.618 of the monthly wave 1. Because the final move in both 2013 and 2017 seemed huge. All the best
Mayfair_Ventures
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@pascma, Good question. the thing you have to take into consideration with Bitcoin is that it is still in its inception as a trading instrument. So major moves in 2013 would have been tech visionaries, followed by consultants, friends of these guys after a chat in the pub, then family members and lost friends from years before who saw your posts on Facebook. 2017 comes along and the world went ICO mad, you had companies raising 300m only to take Etherium and change the logo. You had the same consultants charging $5,000 a day rates to teenagers who thought they need consultants and the consultants who knew less than zero about the tech. So the moves where not controlled in any way and hyped to the max. After the second move, governments and banks realized the tech wasn't going anywhere and started to put controls in place. That made it attractive to fund investors, intelligent investors as a whole - by this time it is already up above levels of fair value. So companies like Grayscale are now shorting it (COT data shows still net short positions) But there is more interest. So in theory, this is the first-ever real Elliott wave move playing itself out. Obviously a lot more to it than that. But in general terms, it's only now becoming a real asset/tool.
pascma
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@Mayfair_Ventures, Thanks for replying, and especially this fast. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens this year compared with 2017 in terms of final move up and how crazy things will get. I am certainly retail, but also an engineer and data scientist, so find your posts extremely interesting. There is a lot of "to the moon and beyond" out there, which i find scary, especially when most people expect that without even any corrections!
Is is also interesting that your wave 4 is considering potentially some very deep retracements, at the deep end over 50% from the ATH. Both in 2013 and 2017 there were a bunch of corrections, but they did not seem to exceed 40%. Again, is this something that fits with your reply above? i.e. this 2021 move being more broad based from an institutional level?
And by the way, in terms of your excellent post from March 19, would you say the wave 4 correction is still on subwave 4 or is all the wave 4 shallower and both subwaves a and b already took place?
Best regards
Mayfair_Ventures
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@pascma, Thanks again! Yes I think the point is to not give retail the norm. As it hasn't gone 40% before as you say that doesn't mean it can't. There's an interesting range on the monthly and I feel the deeper drop will be a spike and go. So playing Wyckoff my ideal target would be the average level here in this post. But I would not be shocked one bit to see a fair value push (spike) to the deep area. As you say, moon shots need fuel, buyers need sellers. And if COT data shows net short yet retail are net-long - One that explains the overall sentiment and two, logically who wins more often? A deep drop in a controlled 4 move I feel is how it will be done. Have a great weekend, thanks for the comment. Always appreciated and nice to chat with other traders.
pascma
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@Mayfair_Ventures, Thanks. I will be following your posts with interest, see how these coming moves fit with your interpretation. Have a great weekend as well.
Mayfair_Ventures
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@pascma, Yes this one is interesting. If it breaks 50k it changes the dynamic but only a little. If it goes above 62. Then it's full calculation. I am now currently sitting on my hands.
pascma
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@Mayfair_Ventures, what do you mean by your statement above 62 is full calculation? i’m assuming if it goes above 62 that it was actually not a weekly wave 4 and that then possibly weekly 3 still ongoing?
Mayfair_Ventures
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@pascma, exactly yes. The software is showing 3 is complete. So I would like to see a move to no more than 58k and then down under 50k to make this 4 move an ideal situation.
pascma
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@Mayfair_Ventures, any chance you can share your current count from the start of monthly wave 1? i am going through the book you advise on EW. trying to learn as i go!
enjoy the weekend
Mayfair_Ventures
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@pascma, yes I will DM you with the screens It's on another software tool we use so will have to draw it up on here - Hence why I hid the first part going only from 3. Have a great weekend too!