Very short term, might reach for $11,284 again before retracing.
BTC's meteoric rise over 3 months was driven primarily by the US/China trade war.
Institutional money was pouring into BTC as a hedge against US/China trade war. (not because Wall Street has finally seen the light or whatever)
Immediately following announcement of the "truce" following the G20 meeting, Bitcoin has been in retreat.
Expect the retreat to slowly continue until there is a re-flare up of trade tensions or some sort of escalation. This is also the period where Altcoins should bloom.
Targets:
$9500 is a given (green trend line) $8500 around July 21 could signal a short term reversal to $9700 before continuing lower. $7200 target - .618 retace - Sometime during August or September 2019
Red box: Late October 2019 through End of year: 4800-6200 (orange box) possible Trump's reelection odds look down a year ahead of the election.
3k and below as some people have been calling for also becomes possible in this scenario.
But, Trump is almost certainly going to be re-elected and BTC will ultimately head to the moon as a result.
From there, it's only a question of when the trade war escalates into a shooting war.
China plays the long game, so my guess is they will attack US around 2022-2025.
Expect BTC to be over a million by then and the entire financial landscape forever changed.
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BTC at 11,250.
Going down from here. Don't FOMO
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Small update.
Daily candles are red. They won't turn green again until surpassing last week's high.
From a Gann fan perspective, it's inconclusive right now. If the daily breaks over into the 1/1 line that's bullish and if it breaks into the 2/1 line that's very bullish.
But at this point in time. My call is still BTC will decline down to 72XX in the short term.
Good luck!
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I'll consider this idea invalid if BTC's price surpasses $14,000.
$13,500 to $13,800 (maybe up to 14K) presents a potential double top formation.
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BTC is on a run but so far is running into strong resistance at the 4.618 advancement line.
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Using a combination of Fibonacci and geometry (Gann) to determine not only future price movements but also their potential time frames.
If nothing else, you have to admit this is pretty neat, when it works. ;)
My own personal opinion. But BTC's rise is done, short term. US/China trade war truce.
But this should be a good lesson for everyone.
If BTC got to almost 14K on China/US trade war fears... what do you imagine it will go to when we progress to a true economic war?
Sun Tzu praises the general who can win without bloodshed. The combined economic might of China, Russia and India threaten to create a land route for goods, bypassing US dominated sea routes.
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Adjustment of the fan. I didn't notice it was a little off until after public.
hey your content is appreciated, thanks, hope you also like my video sessions.
MaxL82
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Trade war is still ongoing. This "truce" means very little.
Plus, you forgot FED possible rate cut.
In any case, if you see 3k BTC ever again make sure you sell your house and go all in.
jdharward
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@MaxL82, I don't believe Fed rate cuts will impact BTC's price. Rate cuts are primarily used to fuel the continued stock market expansion.
The only real way I can see BTC hitting the 3k range is if it looks like Trump is going to loose the election.
Thank you for the comment!!
jdharward
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@MaxL82, To clarify on the Fed rate cut. Remember, that will be to devalue the US dollar, in relation to others such as BTC.
BTC is becoming a store of value.
MaxL82
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@jdharward, currency wars is what will make BTC popular. I believe at one point in near future demand for BTC will be so high there will be no people willing to sell.
To me BTC is already a store of value. If you don't have part of your savings in BTC you are wasting great opportunity long term.