24-hour update: the (short term bearish) scenario played out as predicted, so far.
Bitcoin lost the March support, and logged a retrace & moderate bounce to around $26,000.
There is a scenario where this holds as support, but my bias is towards a little more downside. The $25,000 range is a spicy confluence of support with key fibs, February highs, and 20/21w moving averages know historically to support bullish trends