The count speaks for itself, the support levels we ran into are clear as well. I told you where to long the last drop already before it happened in my previous idea. Let's go over it one more time and let's not get ahead of ourselves in this market full of fear.
I already told all of you to long Fibonacci support levels when we were going down. If you did so, you should also be in a long position that is now starting to get profitable (my long position turned out to be marked at 6860, and to be fairly honest with you, it should have been lower). As mentioned in the updates on my previous idea, I had limit long orders at: - 6950 (small) - 6850 (big) What I didn't mention is that I also placed a huge limit long at: - 6751.5 --> On BitMEX the market hit exactly that price, and filled some trades for 6751.5 dollar per BTC! Although my order was already laying there for more than a day, it was not one of the orders that got filled which is of course unfortunate. You cannot always be super lucky, and the position that I have right now will be more than sufficient for the plan I have in mind.
Try to imagine how many people (traders) have not drawn Fibonacci and have not looked at my TradingView updates... Of those, I dare to say that more than 50% shorted the bottom. That's what wales try to accomplish with their price manipulation and short term ugly charts they draw at the bottom of support levels (same for the top of resistance levels) making the average Joe fill their big limit orders over time...
How convinced am I about this count? Normally I would say I am convinced there is a much higher % chance of going up from here, with obvious support just beneith us, only very few Elliot counts I have seen so far can finish us where we've put the high. However, with all the fear in the market right now and the stock market dumping day after day again, nothing is certain.
As I've mentioned before: Fibonacci could not have saved you from the all out Corona fear crash we had earlier. Although 8400 0.5FIB support gave us one last pump of about 10% before the crash, and 7700 golden zone support held the price steady for 1 more day, so even in the worst conditions you will still see the effect of Fibonacci fairly easily... This means all of this is always in play, but doesn't necessarily beat the fear in the market over time!
First minor resistance is at 7030 (0.5 FIB), be aware!
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So far so good! 6900 is a MUST hold from my perspective, I would not tolerate an hourly close below that level, but I am feeling possitive about the price action and am happy with the profits so far. Let's see where/if we find higher support, 6970 and 6910 formed FIB support levels!
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I was about to share this new drawing a few hours ago, but forgot about it, looks like it is playing out rather nicely with the 3 and probably the 4 and 5 are in high probability zones as well!.
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5 is supposed to be the finisher of the bigger 3 in red zone which I didn't draw apparently. That's all super short term stuff, this is crazy bullish... However, I myself will get out for a moment when we cross the 8k mark, cash in and look at a new long opportunity from there. I have been making a lot of profits since the 3.5k low and I need to reconsider my long term plans for Bitcoin, spreading my portfolio into long term investement money (Ledger Nano S), groceries money (crypto.com credit card) and short term trading funds (BitMEX+Coinbase). The portfolio might otherwise become too big to keep on an exchange, I don't trust 99% of the exchanges, Coinbase might still get the benefit of the doubt for now.
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Next?
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This might a very bullish look on it short term, but I do feel like we might cross the 8k mark at latest by Monday.
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Already 1.5% pump from the 0.382, bears are super weak, but I still think there is a likely chance we can meet that 0.5. If we get a convincing higher low I will leave behind that thought.
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However, if we calculate the Fibonacci retracement levels for wave 3 of 3 alone, we have perfectly reached the 0.5 already. And have a little bit of room left towards that golden zone. The 0.786 would then align perfectly with the top of our 1 wave. That means if you haven't gotten in so far, 7300 and 7200 are the most likely pivots for this intra wave correction to bottom out. Round numbers for a change ;-)
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Scenario Correction Finished:
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Alternate:
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Only time can tell and patience is a virtue, but things start to get clearer with the hour. :-)
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Target almost reached, starting to ofload.
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I switched short at 8070, called it way too soon. This is a mistake I made, and it hurts. Half of my position got stopped out at 8300 and I believe the other half may still be sold in profit making up for the current realized loss. 7760 as 0.618 of our last short term move which started <7400 might be our support price from here, I hope bears at least try to get that far, so I can sell the second half in profit making up for current losses. Mistakes are made to learn from, TA is one thing, it isn't always perfect and it works best if you wait for the price action to confirm the call.
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We might still be in a corrective move towards 8.1k. However, this would be the only valid Elliott behind the recent moves if the correction is still in play:
very good, a strong upward movement was made, so the maximum descent can be in 7.5k or higher?
ItsShowtime
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@Mariuszkrc, Right now I would say the maximum retrace we might expect is towards +- 7.6k. However, 8.1k should already be a strong support, keep that in mind. And I will stay bullish as long as we don't break 7.3k! :)
UnknownUnicorn7099021
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your charts are some of the best. can you run through a tutorial of how you draw your fib lines and why you choose some highs and lows over others?
you can see the 7390 wick and hold on this head matches with 0.618 fib retracement from the wick high to the base of the pump.
why is your buy zone around 72 - 73?
ItsShowtime
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@radioactiveman12, Because in theory you should run the FIB retracement with the starting point at the first point in time and the ending point at the last point in time. No matter if the move was up or down. For the 0.5 FIB this doesn't matter. Also, some people do run it in the opposite directoin (finish to start), but they usually use other retracement % numbers than the usual we use here. ;-) Happy to help buddy!
Hodl4dearlife
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So we blew throught 7030 in the end. Your analysis is normally spot on and I have enjoyed your charts before. I am new to charting myself, just made this analysis to track a pattern I noticed. Take a look and let me know what you think and how you see this playing out.
ItsShowtime
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@Hodl4dearlife, Thank you for the compliment. Yes! I sold a quarter of my position at that price for profit taking, I'll be adding a bit more when/if we find new support today/tomorrow. I would never sell the whole position at once at such small resistance levels though. Some follower mentioned to me that we still have a FIB level ahead (also intra wave) and I told him I would be surprise if the 0.786 would hold, but he was right, up until now it has been holding. :-) You spotted those similarities very well! This is definitely something to watch out for, thanks for sharing! IMO, most of the reversals I have seen follow a similar pattern to this near the bottom, wales usually trick a lot of the traders into selling low for that exact reason. Wether we drop and hold at a resistance level with a higher low or we repeat the previous pattern like you indicated will be a very interesting to see. For now, the remainder of my long positioin would be stopped out break even and I am okay with that. :-)