First of all I want to say I'm pretty happy with my ALTS at the moment. They all did a bullish move up in the past 24hrs. The question is now should I hold or short. The recent recovery looks, to me personally, a bit too good to be true. Bull trap??? Although... The recent BTC dip dipped in the recovery zone many analysts confirmed. Somewhere between 10500 and 8000 if Im not mistaken. What I saw today and what Im still seeing is BTC struggling to get passed this 11700-12k resistance. This to me could mean 2 things.
1 People are taking profit by short selling and/are accumulating BTC. A very plausible case. I mean, one thing your sure of, with not a lot of volume, is that the COIN you are shorting is going down. Your only problem is when to take profit when it recovers. With FIB retracement this is soo easy.
2 The big money investors are not in BTC yet. Did anyone see how much money went out of crypto in the past week??? I thought I was hallucinating... If Big Money or whales are not in BTC yet that means BTC might still be too expensive and they want to look for a new dip. My guess is around 8000USD. As you can see on the graph. Previous peaks, highs or lows can determine next supports.
My conclusion is that if BTC does not successfully surpass 12k with a big green candle the current market might become restless, take their profit and sell. Then they will re-buy one support lower on 8K. Im playing both scenarios at the moment. Im already invested in BTC. Got back in around 9900USD -10200USD and I've set some really low ALT buys in the exchange. I call these my fishing lines which I spread around 10% intervals on the way down.
I also have the feeling that it will go lower for the big guys to get in. The pump of today is once again dumb money that will get burned again to have a last ultimate shakeout. I still have 50% of my fiat ready to buy between 8 and 9k. If it breaks 12.5k I'm in there. Let's see how it plays out.
DeepseaDom
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@TimDeleeuw, Good strategy thanks however ... taking profit is never a dumb thing in my opinion. Every trader has some sort of plan or target and when he executes accordingly its a win. When you draw the fibs you can see where the action happens. Traders with loads of volume really manage to live of those small swings between 11800 and 10500. But I agree with you. BTC can retrace back to its november starting point around 8k. According to Elliott Waves we should see a nice recovery. Fingers crossed