COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Nothing matters except this: Keep It Simple, Stupid. All that complex analysis you've been reading day after day? Useless. Since Bitcoin bottomed, it has formed two simple buying setups. If you bought on each breakout, you've got huge profits. I signaled the second breakout for you, before it happened (as shown below).

Follow me for more no-nonsense, profit-making analysis. And for a complete guide to my trading strategy, buy my new book The Crypto Trader (details below).

If you want to look clever, read complicated indicator-filled charts. If you want to make money, just KISS.

Trade active: For me, this is a long-term buy. I sold near the top in late 2017 / early 2018, and I have been waiting patiently for the next bull market to begin. I will now be holding until 'the chart looks wrong'. When it 'looks wrong' is hard to define in a few sentences - my book goes into a lot of detail on this, but in basic terms, my initial stop-loss is slightly below my entry point - around 5900. I want to give this trend plenty of room to go up and down, without triggering my stop.

I will take all my profit only when the main trend is ending, as I did in 2017. BUT I may take a portion of profit along the way, in order to reduce my position if it is becoming far too large in comparison to my other trades (Money Management). So if this trend continues, my profit will grow and grow. But if the trend has a major reversal, my stop-loss will preserve my capital.
Comment: Wow, this second breakout is now even more powerful than the April breakout (in absolute terms, not percentage terms). It is tempting now to take some profit and reduce my position, but I am focusing on the long-term play. If I hold onto my position the best case scenario is a massive massive profit. The worst case scenario is I lose the (much smaller) profit I've made so far, if the trend falls back below the breakout point and I have to sell.

Some people might suggest I sell now and get back in at a lower point. The problem with that (as I know from long, bitter experience) is that the best, most powerful trends don't pause long for breath, sometimes they barely correct downwards at all, and so if you take your profit in the hope of buying back in at a lower price, you may find yourself staring upwards at a soaring price chart with no hope of getting back in.
Trade active: And so it rises and rises and of course I'm glad I didn't take my profit earlier.....but now the dilemma is even greater! The price is rising parabolically, so the likelihood is that it will fall hard in the end. But when is the end? Nobody can know that (however much they pretend they do).

That is why I usually wait until I see clear signs of a trend change before I sell. A hard break downwards followed by a weak recovery and then further decline. That's what I saw and why I decided to sell BTC in late 2017/early 2018. Of course this time we're dealing with the early part of what may turn out to be a long upward trend. The problem is the market thinks nothing of a few 50% declines on the way up. Should I sit tight through all those declines? Probably, for the big profits at the end. But it's always a tough rollercoaster while you're actually living through it.
Trade closed manually: I sold because I did not like the look of this bearish head & shoulders pattern at all. I will try to buy back in if this little collapse turns out to be a false alarm.

Trade active: I bought back into Bitcoin at about the same level I sold at, because that decline yesterday turned out to be a false alarm. The head & shoulders top has decisively failed in the past few minutes. In all likelihood, we're in the early stages of a new triangular-shaped pattern forming over the coming days. It's too early to say whether that will be bullish or bearish, but from what I'm seeing so far, it's looking tentatively bullish.

You can see in the image below that after a big initial decline, the Head & Shoulders was failing to lead to further declines. The triangle shown by the orange dashed-lines formed, but I wasn't prepared to buy back in until the triangle resolved itself to the upside. I put in a stop-buy order and once that breakout began, my order was filled at the point indicated by the green arrow.

I waited until the breakout before buying back into BTC because there was always a possibility that the triangle would breakout to the downside instead and lead to a further price collapse. This way I was able to buy into the initial strength of the breakout and see a big profit quickly.
THE CRYPTO TRADER: How anyone can make money trading Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

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Looks like exactly the same pattern right now about, The head & shoulders top
+1 Reply
@LaAamar, yes! Good spot. It is kind of looking that way right now.
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Thank you for the updates
Reply
@LaAamar, no problem. I'm always happy to discuss my ideas and answer trading questions. :-)
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@GlenGoodman Buddy cool strategy. I think everything will work out. I will follow you, interesting how it will end
+1 Reply
GlenGoodman IgorPorokh
@IgorPorokh, Thanks Igor, Iong-term trend-following strategies like this can be so frustrating, when you give back a lot of profit on a correction, but it's worth it for the handful of moon-shots that succeed. My feeling is we MUST be due a big correction soon.....but it's usually when everyone thinks we MUST get a correction that a correction doesn't happen. ;-)
+1 Reply
@GlenGoodman Ummmahhhh
+1 Reply
GlenGoodman Andrew_Kay
@Andrew_Kay, hahahahahaaaa!
+1 Reply
Question is what is your Take profits target please? and thank you for you work
+1 Reply
@LaAamar, Thanks, and good question! For me, this is a long-term buy. I sold near the top in late 2017 / early 2018, and I have been waiting patiently for the next bull market to begin. I will now be holding until 'the chart looks wrong'. When it 'looks wrong' is hard to define in a few sentences - my book goes into a lot of detail on this, but in basic terms, my initial stop-loss is slightly below my entry point - around 5900. I want to give this trend plenty of room to go up and down, without triggering my stop.

I will take all my profit only when the main trend is ending, as I did in 2017. BUT I may take a portion of profit along the way, in order to reduce my position if it is becoming far too large in comparison to my other trades. So if this trend continues, my profit will grow and grow. But if the trend has a major reversal, my stop-loss will preserve my capital. I hope that makes sense! If you want any more detail, just ask me :-)
Reply
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