I believe the first impulse wave of the zigzag has completed. I'm expecting a correction back to (iv) then another impulse wave up to 320 to complete wave a of 5
From what I see here, you're expected about 407 by the 16th of the month. Then from there a correction and up to the ATH by the 27th?
rivet.popper
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My point is that's only about 10 days to pull back from 407 and then go almost straight up to your expected price of at least 4800 USD. Is that really possible?
user100000
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you have a point, i guess there isn't enough time. by the 27th we should get a cycle high of lesser magnitude. my guess is 408. the 4800 target has to be pushed forward sometime in the future maybe by mid november
rivet.popper
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Mid november is almost the end of 2015. Soooo all your previous wave counts and predictions for this March are now discarded?
user100000
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nothing has changed. the expanding diagonal is the main pattern/count and is still intact since the low of 2.22 four years ago
rivet.popper
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i don't understand. these wave counts are very general and seem to be retro-analyzed. luckily i'm just buy-and-hold so it doesn't matter at all to me. but i wanted EW for a general timeline of certain points just to plan my own future finances. if we have to keep moving the goalposts, i guess this isn't working as a predictive technique. i thank you for your work, in any case.
user100000
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EWP is good at predicting price. not time. for time, we have to study cycles. i recommend the profit magic of stock transaction timing by JM Hurst which im trynig to read
user100000
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the 5th wave of this expanding diagonal has a target of 4800. it is a zigzag (two impulse waves). the 408 target coming on the 27th is wave (1) of the first impulse wave of the zigzag up to 4800. this is a bull market to 5K. i don't know why you are complaining. 166 to 4800......... 2800% percent increase is not good?
rivet.popper
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i'm not complaining about the price, just the constant moving of the timeline. this would never work for trading, only for investing really. let's not forget though that your first bull market predictions had price destinations of 93K and 28Kn within the span of a few weeks, so you can imagine the "disappointment" you create when all of the sudden it's 5k and now at the end of the year.
user100000
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it works on a smaller time frames too if you are active trader. once btc reach the 408 you could sell or hedge and buy again after the correction for the next move up
regarding the old prediction of 93K. that was before the market overlapped with wave 1 (market dipping below 259) so the pattern changed to an expanding diagonal instead of a regular impulse wave. i didn't expect this to happen