Now that I have a confirmation that we are indeed in an uptrend once again, I want to make a long range forecast of price and time. I lust want to make a public record. Either I get a bit of egg on my face, or perhaps I get an invitation to appear on CNBC with Jim Rogers :-)
So in any case, a month in advance, my forecast for the next top, not necessarily "the" top, but certainly a very significant trading opportunity, will come ~ 11/27/2013, and the price will be ~ 289.
See you in a month...
Comments
geometricThinking
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I haven't updated my posts in a while. I looked at this one not so much to see if the price forecast was anywhere near the mark - I knew full well it was not even close - but rather to look at the dates that I had forecasted. I see that the first forecasted date, 11/27, was ~ the exact top of the great bull run, and the 2nd, 12/29, was ~ the top of the great first bounce off the first low.
I know the forecast looked random, as I hadn't bothered to explain the hows and whys. This was an application of the little Gann I know.
Prior to this forecast a friend/trader, also a Gann student, pointed out to me that the market could go far higher than I expected. I saw his rationale and understood it. I just didn't really believe that such an amazing bull run was in the cards. Goes to show we need to leave our preconceptions at the door...
littleriver
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Hello JimFred
Any chance I could have a look at the Gann chart you used for your predictions? I have only toyed with it a bit but always eager to learn something new.
geometricThinking
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I don't have that setup saved anymore, but here is my latest weeekly btc chart. There are 2 Gann squares, a bull and a bear. Note that they are both only 2-3 months from a turn point, which corresponds well with my wave count, which suggests that this wave 4 correction is almost over. 2015 ought to be a very good year for btc bulls, imo...
tradingview.com/e/NccSJPLE/
littleriver
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Thank you JimFred for sharing the chart. I think nothing demonstrates price's change in rate of climb or decline like Gann. I am always looking for tunnels through the sky or as Gann puts it "Tunnel thru the Air". Lots of money to be made on a strong trend. Do you have any advice on interpreting the Gann Box ? Really interested in projection and timing. I am assuming you look at where your target intersects the next fan? Thank you again for taking time to share your insights.
artiguste
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Right back.
I hope you were right but finally I'm happy that you're totally wrong ;-)
artiguste
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Or maybe you're not !
Will this uptrend end at the end of november... :-o
geometricThinking
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289???? 11/27???? Ha! Guess that phone call from Jim Rogers and CNBC will have to wait :-)
Those two datapoints have already been beat... So lets try again --
Lets say a major top at 500 (early in the day of) 11/17.
geometricThinking
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Nostradamus... OK, I accept the comparison. Yes, the chart looks random. I did not put my rationale into the chart. This post was just a way to make a public record of time and price. If the forecast turns out to be accurate, and if people are interested, I might share my reasoning. See you in a few weeks...
Corelianer
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It also looks very random to me...
artiguste
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How many bitcoins you bet Mr Nostradamus ? ;-)
Why do you stop the uptrend at the end of november ?
I know the forecast looked random, as I hadn't bothered to explain the hows and whys. This was an application of the little Gann I know.
Prior to this forecast a friend/trader, also a Gann student, pointed out to me that the market could go far higher than I expected. I saw his rationale and understood it. I just didn't really believe that such an amazing bull run was in the cards. Goes to show we need to leave our preconceptions at the door...