Everyone is talking about their waves and their wyckoffs and their on-chain metrics but, at least for the near term, I think it is all unnecessary.
IMO we are in dire need of a pullback and Bitcoin has been forming an ascending wedge. Resistance is at this point around 50k with support in the low 40s. Maybe we make it to 50k, maybe we don't.
September has also historically been a bearish time for all markets, crypto being no exception. This could mean maybe we go even lower than 40k, depending how things play out. September corrections can begin in August, so anytime now. Taking profits in August is always wise.
There is also the possibility still that this correction is not over and this is a bull trap. If the above plays out soon and a corrective move lasts for weeks, it could drive the markets fairly low and then bring 20k back into the conversation, or at least certainly 30k. One reason why I think this is still on the table is that Bitcoin has always tested the 200 day MA during every correction. As of now, this resides at ~15k and would likely line up perfectly with ~20k area of resistance by the time it is reached. Not that I am as influenced by historical behavior as everyone else for some reason is, but if we want to grasp straws here for our arguments, we can rely on historical performance. What is it they say about history and future performance? Exactly.
I am not saying anything with any certainty because Bitcoin proves time and again that it is NOT predictable no matter how hard you try. Of course some will get lucky, or maybe even can predict Bitcoin, but most people are just making their best educated (or non-educated) guess. I am a strong believer in continually buying when good prices present themselves, which requires patience. I look forward to dips for this reason.
I am not buying unless it comes down to at least 30k. Buy orders set for 30k to 15k and there not moving. %80 retracement from a speculative 100k top is still 20k.
MPH_
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@blueboy356886, Yeah I agree. Thanks for mentioning that. Regular technical analysis and historical analysis truly would make that the most logical argument. The only thing in the way of that argument is adoption at an exponential rate. I truly hope you are right because it would be the opportunity of a lifetime (aside from previously buying Bitcoin super cheap).