Right now, Bitcoin is facing a confluence of resistance at the $4,100 juncture.
Current resistance:
- Strong hidden bearish divergence in the 4h and 6h timeframe
- .786 Bear retracement
- 1.618 extension of previous swing (For a wave 3.)
- Neckline of the inverted head and shoulders
- Previous high located at $4,236
Current support:
- Global Bullish trendline
- .382 FIB (For a wave 4)
Mid-term bullish targets:
$4,390
$4,962
$5,500
$6,036
Mid-term bearish targets:
$3,550
$3,120
$2,450
$1,300
Although all exchanges are different, I just realized Bitstamp technically has not touched the inverted head and shoulders neckline. As of this very moment, that stands at $4,150.
I am neutral to slightly bearish.
Technically, this is still in a short until a daily close of $4,236+.
P.s. my hair is nicer
Current resistance:
- Strong hidden bearish divergence in the 4h and 6h timeframe
- .786 Bear retracement
- 1.618 extension of previous swing (For a wave 3.)
- Neckline of the inverted head and shoulders
- Previous high located at $4,236
Current support:
- Global Bullish trendline
- .382 FIB (For a wave 4)
Mid-term bullish targets:
$4,390
$4,962
$5,500
$6,036
Mid-term bearish targets:
$3,550
$3,120
$2,450
$1,300
Although all exchanges are different, I just realized Bitstamp technically has not touched the inverted head and shoulders neckline. As of this very moment, that stands at $4,150.
I am neutral to slightly bearish.
Technically, this is still in a short until a daily close of $4,236+.
P.s. my hair is nicer
Comment:
15m Chart.
Comment:
Update, 15m chart.
Currently, we are finding support EXACTLY on the major bullish trendline. Since beginning uptrend, we have now bounced off of this trend line a total of 4 times. This will be the 5th touch.
Of those 5 total touches, 4 of them have resulted in a breach of the trend line.
15m
Zoomed:
The 4h
Currently, we are finding support EXACTLY on the major bullish trendline. Since beginning uptrend, we have now bounced off of this trend line a total of 4 times. This will be the 5th touch.
Of those 5 total touches, 4 of them have resulted in a breach of the trend line.
15m
Zoomed:
The 4h
Comment:
Play around on my chart.
Do yourself a favor. Click inside the chart first published on this idea, and pull down. If you'll notice, there are some fibs highlighted in white.
Specifically:
$4,929
and
$6,046.
Those are the targets for if this inverted head and shoulders plays out. Matter of fact, those are the wave counts for a 3rd and 5th impulse wave up based off of the 1st bounce we had. If this isn't a dead cat bounce, those are the profit targets to be expected.
To trade an inverted head and shoulders, you simply watch for a breakout of the neckline for confirmation, then wait for a subsequent re-test of said neckline for support. If it holds, it is a long and the price target is equal to the depth of the head from the point of breakout. So easy, a toddler could do it.
Use logic here. Do you really think it will be just that easy? Especially with all these shorts closing, does that not seem the least bit suspicious to you?
All it would take is a fat nudge out of nowhere, aka a bart, to liquidate TONS of longs. The amount of fuel this market has if it spontaneously rallies to the downside is something I don't even want to think about.
$4k has been holding too long, and I'm suspicious. If one were to be PERFECTLY objective in this market, you would THINK this is a massive long opportunity here. Lots of shorts closing, a major bullish trend line keeps holding, longs significantly higher than shorts, a HUGE inverted head and shoulders *painted* on the charts..
Either $3,120 was ACTUALLY the long-term bottom, or this market is about to have one hell of a serious surprise headed it's way.
Do yourself a favor. Click inside the chart first published on this idea, and pull down. If you'll notice, there are some fibs highlighted in white.
Specifically:
$4,929
and
$6,046.
Those are the targets for if this inverted head and shoulders plays out. Matter of fact, those are the wave counts for a 3rd and 5th impulse wave up based off of the 1st bounce we had. If this isn't a dead cat bounce, those are the profit targets to be expected.
To trade an inverted head and shoulders, you simply watch for a breakout of the neckline for confirmation, then wait for a subsequent re-test of said neckline for support. If it holds, it is a long and the price target is equal to the depth of the head from the point of breakout. So easy, a toddler could do it.
Use logic here. Do you really think it will be just that easy? Especially with all these shorts closing, does that not seem the least bit suspicious to you?
All it would take is a fat nudge out of nowhere, aka a bart, to liquidate TONS of longs. The amount of fuel this market has if it spontaneously rallies to the downside is something I don't even want to think about.
$4k has been holding too long, and I'm suspicious. If one were to be PERFECTLY objective in this market, you would THINK this is a massive long opportunity here. Lots of shorts closing, a major bullish trend line keeps holding, longs significantly higher than shorts, a HUGE inverted head and shoulders *painted* on the charts..
Either $3,120 was ACTUALLY the long-term bottom, or this market is about to have one hell of a serious surprise headed it's way.
Comment:
Just an example of a potential short opportunity with decent RR
Comment:
2 Different short opportunities.
2 Different short opportunities.
Comment:
3d showing hidden bearish divergence.
One thing I've noticed about hidden bearish divergence though is that a lot of times it does end up getting invalidated. The RSI highs being higher here could suggest accumulation IMO.
5d showing a lower high so far but a higher low.
This screenshot piques my interest a bit.
At first glance, this LOOKS like a possible 'head' in my price discovery theory. If so, it would mean a 'wing' 3 is forming, which suggests we would see a VERY rapid increase in price and volume.
Volume has been falling ever since the top at $4,200 which indicates that at some point soon, we will see a very large breakout. The more and more data that rolls in, the more I am starting to believe we may actually go bull.
In conclusion, my view has changed from neutral/bearish, to slightly bullish. If we close a higher high above $4,236 I will be full short-term bull.
One thing I've noticed about hidden bearish divergence though is that a lot of times it does end up getting invalidated. The RSI highs being higher here could suggest accumulation IMO.
5d showing a lower high so far but a higher low.
At first glance, this LOOKS like a possible 'head' in my price discovery theory. If so, it would mean a 'wing' 3 is forming, which suggests we would see a VERY rapid increase in price and volume.
Volume has been falling ever since the top at $4,200 which indicates that at some point soon, we will see a very large breakout. The more and more data that rolls in, the more I am starting to believe we may actually go bull.
In conclusion, my view has changed from neutral/bearish, to slightly bullish. If we close a higher high above $4,236 I will be full short-term bull.
Comment:
Notice in this screenshot, the MACD histogram upticking pretty substantially, while we have a possible 5d bullish cross forming. This MACD signal crossing would be very bullish and would most definitely initiate a buy signal.
Comment:
Possible? I'd like to see one more touch of the upper and lower perimeter first, but this could be an ascending triangle developing.
Comment:
Really do not like that we keep using the bullish trendline for support:
Comment:
S L A U G H T E R E D
