As per my previous analysis, we had a good chance to rally from the last local bottom, back to 8500+- to top there and resume the bear market decline. We were long, rode a move from 6360 to 8200-8300, and flipped short but we were shaken out of the short sadly. Now the signal is very clear and the weekly confirms the downtrend with full force. Being the main timeframe in control here, this scenario is of very high probability, since it goes against mainstream sentiment and aligns with the longest term pattern which is currently implying a bearish/sideways phase until we reach the vertical green line in my chart -which nicely aligns with the timing for MtGox coins to be distributed and likely sold at market via exchanges by desperate hodlers who were stuck since Gox went to hell-. We can look to enter shorts at market, gradually, or wait for a retracement entry after the weekly close, which would give us a far greater reward to risk ratio.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
PS: Don't be a stubborn hodler, please go to cash...unless you really enjoy losing money for no good reason.
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Today's high sits below the last uptrend mode in the daily (purple box), this is a sign of weakness pretty much. I'm still not sure if we will go sideways, or continue to trend down steadily as per the weekly chart, but this is a red flag for the sideways case, already...if weekly bars form lower highs too, then we will see a sharp move down, and not sideways until the ETF news come out (like I thought was possible) s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/s/SmXs1ucy.png
I would like to finally join in on the praises to mr Ivan. I've been following ideas for about a year and a half now, and I must say Ivan, you're doing one hell of a work sir. I've been mostly watching the whole time, and trying to follow out with small amounts i had to spare. One miss out of who knows how many (free) calls, in my book, that's a man who knows and loves his stuff :)
you are the best bro. 'PS: Don't be a stubborn hodler, please go to cash...unless you really enjoy losing money for no good reason.' lol. I have the same views, I like that you are giving good advice to more people than I can reach.
IvanLabrie
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@cycler, I try my best to help, been saying this since the top in December and with more clarity after time passed. At least between 8-11k we had multiple chances to sell all, with good certainty that the top had been hit and that price could go much lower before turning up again, long term... Yet people never listen.
cycler
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@IvanLabrie, you can only lead the horse to the water.