The entire crypto industry has been waiting for approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for one and a half years, dozens of applications from funds were postponed and rejected. For a long time the price didn't respond to SEC decisions, because everyone already knows the outcome. But what happens if the commission suddenly approves one of the applications?
In January 2019 were filled two applications: from VanEck and Bitwise Asset Management. SEC took over the consideration of applications on February 15, when Bitcoin cost $3,550. The commission had 45 days to make a decision, and on March 29 they postponed the deadline for another 45 days.
And now things get interesting. April 2, just three days after this decision, BTC pumped by 20% per day, after which begins a path to new heights. Bitcoin has grown up for more than 55% in a couple of weeks! Anyone could barely expect that Bitcoin could easily break through the resistance at $6000 and then fly above $8000. Moreover, no one expected CMC to track record daily volumes after a semiannual winter!
But, let's back to the ETF. The US Securities and SEC are due to deliver its decision on the VanEck Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded fund) on Tuesday, May 21. Also on Tuesday is the ETFs Global Markets Roundtable in New York, a conference discussing issues affecting the ETF industry.
Giving the keynote speech at that conference, is a certain Hester Peirce, SEC Commissioner. Peirce, also known as ‘Crypto Mom,’ is by far the most vocally supportive SEC Commissioner when it comes to Bitcoin. And if that wasn’t already enough to convince you. This week the SEC once again delayed their decision on the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF but made no announcement on the also-pending VanEck proposal.
Now let's tie all the facts together and imagine the full situation. Starting from March 29 till May 16, BTC not only didn't drop, it grew up with record volumes. This fact gives us a simple idea - insiders knew something and ran like hell to buy BTC. What was that inside? I have only one option: approval of the ETF from VanEck by SEC. They knew and they bought.
So, what's now? Let's wait for Tuesday and hope for the best. If the decision is positive, Bitcoin will never see a new bottom, the $3000 will remain untapped.
Comment
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Well, it seems that the trend has already changed from bearish to bullish after correction, BTC is breaking out with strong volume!
An ETF for Bitcoin would defeat the entire purpose of Crypto. Am I the only one who think an ETF would be more negative than positive?!
BillCharison
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@MC_Peewee, agree with you, in long-term vision ETF and all regulations will destroy the whole crypto system that was originally constructed. However, regulations are inevitably, they will bring us not only negative, but a bunch of positive aspects too, so I'm not "afraid" of one, but can't say that I really wait for ETF approval.
deactivatedaccount123
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@BillCharison, I agree, it will make some things better but it will make other things worse IMO.
I just really really really do not see how in the world this ETF could be approved unless certain people are in certain pockets- which, considering this world and how it works, wouldn't surprise me.
UmairEjaz
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well judging by how overbought the market is right now its most likely going to impact negative
goldbug1
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Nice read Bill.
agent474
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts and analysis. Great as always!