4xForecaster

$BTCUSD #bitstamp Stomped, Mulls Decline | #bitcoin $BTC #forex

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Friends,

Just as #bitstamp rallies, it remains unable to break above a significant 275.00/295.89 threashold, best appreciated on a WEEKLY chart, as follows:


snapshot


A large geometry has outlined a Wolfe Wave completion at its Point-5 back on 12 JAN 2015, cratering a nadir at 152             .40. However, a rallying from that candle has remained limp and lingering, allowing price to remain aloft that fateful candle's close, just above 211.85.


SO, WHAT NOW?

At this point, price action has delineated two physical structures, one above within a relatively narrow range of 275.00/295.89 and another below at 211.85, opening the possibility of two directional scenarios: One bullish (less probable) and one bearish (more probale).


THE BULLISH SCENARIO:

A bullish scenario would have to absorb the bearish nay-sayers that have built a solid entrenchment across this aforementioned 275.00/295.89 range.

Looking back, Point-3 of the large geometry offered a subsequent pivot where prior bulls converted to bears, and remained bears at the periods of 02 MAR, 09 MAR and 16 MAR 2015, which correspond to the bars where bulls have failed to climb a blood murk of an uphill.

Now, comes 20 JUN 2015 and this current week, where we remain at the low end of the bars, pulled not by gravitational disillusionment, but simply pushed by the same bearish resistance, well entrenched in that range.

It is this very range that, if overcome, would convert bears to bull and turn it from a resistance to support, and open the sky up to the price level of Point-4 above, namely the 442.00/453.92 range.


THE BEARISH SCENARIO:

In the more plausible realm, a decline should the prime object of contemplation here. Not because bears have their moment up above, but simply because this remains the path of least resistance, especially in a technical context.

For instance, a Fibonacci cluster between the 1-2 Leg extension at 1.414 and the recent failure from Point-5 to the pivot level, itself extending a 1.618 alignment - This discreet cluster offers room for price to carve out further decline, effectively knocking stop-losses on the way to building a much needed bullish momentum.

The most proximate support line remains the multi-year trendline which has imposed consistent support. This is the line which most junior traders will use as their reference, under which they will line up their stop-losses. This is thus the level to keep in sight, which if breached, is likely to cause a stop-loss glutonic spike down to as far as the Fib cluster, which is estimated to wait at about 58.96.

This last value is NOT a target, but a reasonable level of support, if indeed this bearish scenario were to play out.


OVERALL, price is getting squeeze by significant technical levels. A bullish scenario would have to come by in the tangible form of a major fundamental news release, as the technicals alone lack the weight to pierce through fat bears. In contrast, a bearish scenario would have to contemplate historical support which has widely indoctrinated a generation of Pavlovian cryto'ers, likely herding a field of stop-losses below this susceptible trendline .

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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@4xForecaster

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David Alcindor
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Comment: 28 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

From $BTC | Predictive & Forecasting Analysis room:

===================
Here is the most BULLISH scenario I can come up with:
snapshot


1 - First, it is nearly guaranted that we are in a prolong correction, hence the large, encompassing A-B-C pattern.

2 - Projection of such pattern (not in terms of Elliott Wave, but simply in terms of geometry), Wave-C projection off of Wave-B defines 363.66 as pan-ultimate top for this correction ... Near December 2015.

3 - The two most recent channels reflect R.N. Elliott channel methodology ... Hence, we just completed an Intermediate Wave-(3), whereas Intermediate Wave-(4) should be under development at this time.

4 - Based on same R. N. Elliott channel construction, the secondary channel (GREEN) points to a higher border validation at/near 363.66.

5 - Bad news is that from a total Wave, these broad sweeping correction will tend to return o the origin of Wave-A ... Interestingly, this fits the Predictive/Forecasting Model's outer most tolerable WL value = 152.72, defined this past SEP 2015.

So, as mentioned before, the only analyses are revealing at the H4 levels and above, offering a broad "bird'seye view" of what the Bitcoin trader will HAVE TO endure, not only in terms of adverse excursion if ever SHORT, but in counter-trend threat if taking a long position, especially near the current yet-to-define top.

Best,

David Alcindor
===================

David Alcindor
Comment: 29 OCT 2015 - $BTC:

Alright. So, M15 dead. H1 dead. H4 dead = Big boys are buying like crazy.

snapshot


Looking at the Model from the UP-side, here are the most relevant and probable levels of resistance, in fading order:

1 - TG-Hi = 332.18 - 29 OCT 2015

2 - TG-Hix = 349.31 - 29 OCT 2015

AND

3 - WL = 372.22 - 29 OCT 2015

In terms of geometry, here is a probable ATHENA:
snapshot


Re-entry into SHORT is not worth, unless price commits to below the TRIGGER LINE:
snapshot


All future analysis will be rendered off of DAILY, until larger players are done flossing their teeth of retail trader remnants.

David
Comment: 29 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

Following is a cut/paste from the room:

====================29 OCT 2015 - $BTC:

Alright. So, M15 dead. H1 dead. H4 dead = Big boys are buying like crazy.

snapshot


Looking at the Model from the UP-side, here are the most relevant and probable levels of resistance, in fading order:

1 - TG-Hi = 332.18 - 29 OCT 2015

2 - TG-Hix = 349.31 - 29 OCT 2015

AND

3 - WL = 372.22 - 29 OCT 2015

In terms of geometry, here is a probable ATHENA:
snapshot


Re-entry into SHORT is not worth, unless price commits to below the TRIGGER LINE:
snapshot


All future analysis will be rendered off of DAILY, until larger players are done flossing their teeth of retail trader remnants.

David
====================

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 02 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

All targets hit ... Just posted in $BTC Room:

======================
02 NOV 2015 - All Targets Hit ... WL remains improbable, but pending:

$BTCUSD - M15 Chart:
snapshot


$BTCUSD - Daily Chart:
snapshot


David Alcindor
======================
($BTC Room: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya )


David Alcindor
Comment: 15 NOV 2015 - A recap of the past week postings on the $BTC Room (Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya )


====================================
07 NOV 2015 - $BTC-Weekly Chart:
snapshot


So far, the weekly chart has remained the most responsive chart. On 02 NOV 2015, it produced a series of bullish targets, namely:


1 - TG-1 = 407.24 - 02 NOV 2015 - This is a quantitative target, so it has little reversible effect on price, but it will often cause price to return back to it, acting as a future R/S level (if in new price territories), or confirming prior R/S levels if moving into prior territories;

AND

2 - TG-2 = 504.57 - 02 NOV 2015 - Here too, the target is a "Quant-Target", so it has little to no stopping power ... Yet, this is exactly what occurred in the chart, interestingly (well, to me, since this is not suposed to occur - What should have occurred was a shallow retracement, then a push to the qualitative targets, TG-Hi, TG-Hix.)

Again, this $BTC is simply not acting as expected, so I won't really chance anything here in terms of predictive/forecasting pronouncement.

David Alcindor


@iefan - I see how you are looking at it.

Yes, in this fashion, price can. The "mis"-behavior of the Quant-Target occurred by a lack of moving straight towards the Qual-Target - It is not a necessity, but a "next-step" occurrence that I had expected.
snapshot


Instead, and as you have charted it, it is quite possible that price would seek a resting place at the 0.618 level:
snapshot


This is a level which may also seek confirmation of a "transmural", or validation of a prior structure "across the wall":
snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 10 NOV 2015 - $BTC-Daily Chart:
snapshot


David Alcindor


... Expect a pull-back from this level ("transmural"):
snapshot


David Alcindor


@Diabolicus - Transmural simply means across ("trans") the wall ("mural").

It's simply a term I use to refer to a probable price reacting to a structure high/low that exists on the other side of a swing.

In geometric terms, the wall ("mural") acts as a line of symmetry where a Resistance Level (R) turns into a Support Level (S) across the wall:
snapshot


This is a very simple patterning of price action which is quite ubiquitous.

For instance, within this same price field, there is another one at the bottom left:
snapshot


There is nothing too refined about these levels, except that most traders might over-react to the intervening swing (mural) and may forget that it can be used instead as a measuring stick to establish a probable support once price returns from its wild move ... That level is defined by the base that prepared for the swing. I use this to remain aware of a potential consolidation or reversal:
snapshot


Regarding the next price action IF price were to rise from the current level, then I could just as easily estimate a probable level of resistance (R) relative to the cluster of support (S) that occurred prior ro the significant down-swing - Following is what I would tend to project visually in the field.
snapshot

David
I may be a bit crude, but that is what I would do if I only had highs and lows to go by (structural analysis).


14 NOV 2015 - $BTC:
snapshot


David Alcindor


14 NOV 2015 - $BTC - Weekly Chart:

Relevant validation points and possible level of support:
snapshot


David Alcindor


Hello @BitProf - First three targets are TG-1, 2, 3 - Numerical (quantitative) targets carry a HIGHER probability of being hit than qualitative targets, but lesser ability to cause reversal in price.

The last two values are TG-Lo and TG-Lox, which are qualitative targets. "Qual-targets" carry a LESSER probability of being hit relative to "Quant-Targets", but if attained, they will act as reversal levels.

David


15 NOV 2015 - $BTC - 4-Hour Chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor
... Look for these possible symmetrical projections - David
========================================


David Alcindor
Comment: 18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Following is a cut/paste of what has been going on in the $BTC room:

=========================================
15 NOV 2015 - $BTC - 15-Min. Chart:

Failure of this area would be very bearish:
snapshot


David Alcindor
16 NOV 2015 - $BTC - M15:
Price likely to be bound in this range - A break of either side may point to subsequent direction at this lower TF:
snapshot


David Alcindor
16 NOV 2015 - $BTC - 15-Min. Chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor
16 NOV 2015 - Re: $BTC - M15 Chart:
Watch for a break of floor risk:
snapshot


David Alcindor
17 NOV 2015 - $BTC:
Bears are weighing down on M15 ... Floor continues to hold:
snapshot


David Alcindor
18 NOV 2015 - $BTC - H1:

Price expected to rise to 375.35:
snapshot


David Alcindor
... $BTC ... 377.21 is the approximate end of this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry:
snapshot


David Alcindor
... $BTC ... Fibonacci's 0.396 also in line with above technical points:
snapshot


David Alcindor
... $BTC:

And of course, this standard 1.618-FE:
snapshot


David Alcindor


... $BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
A few days ago, I posted the following 4-hour chart, to which I have added each of the points:
snapshot


At the time, Point-4 remained uncertain. However, I would now suspect that Point-4 would find an approximate residence near 375.5, as per 1-hour chart.

Bringing the two timeframes (H1 and H4) together, here is what we get:
snapshot


Note that the alignment of the two ab = cd is lost (pink square pointed by arrow), ... until ab x 1.414 of the second symmetry regains alignment with the larger symmetry:
snapshot


OVERALL: Following is the expected geometry (BLUE), as well as bearish projection:
snapshot


Mind you that this 242.43 level represents just one bearish target ... See other targets in earlier posts.

David Alcindor
@Diabolicus - Yes. Fat fingers ... I meant to type 0.386. Thank you!
================================

Thank you for following. Much appreciate your interest in these and other analyses.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: ... $BTC: In addition to the larger Geo, here is an internal Geo development as well, suggesting a significant resistance at Point-4 of the larger (BLUE) Geo, in line with Point-5 of the internal Geo (BLACK):
snapshot


Following is a probable price pathway, taking into account all aforementioned geometric contributions:
snapshot



David Alcindor

... $BTC - 4-Hour: I would pay particular attention to the RSI channel ... A new trend - predominantly bearish - has emerged, and the upper border of the channel could point to a probable level of corresponding top in price:
snapshot


David Alcindor
... $BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
Following is a refinement of the 4-hour chart, having adjusted the 2-4 Line slope:
snapshot


David Alcindor
18 NOV 2015 - $BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
As forecast, price continues to rally. As per recent analysis, this is expected to represent a limited bullish move, fashioned by the Geo and other aforementioned technical bounds:
snapshot


David Alcindor.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Hello @ambition1 - No recent analyses have been posted as of yet regarding $BTC
Reply
18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Following is a cut/paste of pertinent comments/analyses that have occurred in the $BTC room:
==================================
... $BTC: In addition to the larger Geo, here is an internal Geo development as well, suggesting a significant resistance at Point-4 of the larger (BLUE) Geo, in line with Point-5 of the internal Geo (BLACK):
snapshot


Following is a probable price pathway, taking into account all aforementioned geometric contributions:
snapshot



David Alcindor

... $BTC - 4-Hour: I would pay particular attention to the RSI channel ... A new trend - predominantly bearish - has emerged, and the upper border of the channel could point to a probable level of corresponding top in price:
snapshot


David Alcindor
... $BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
Following is a refinement of the 4-hour chart, having adjusted the 2-4 Line slope:
snapshot


David Alcindor
18 NOV 2015 - $BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
As forecast, price continues to rally. As per recent analysis, this is expected to represent a limited bullish move, fashioned by the Geo and other aforementioned technical bounds:
snapshot


David Alcindor.

==================================

Best,

David Alcindor
Reply
ADDENDUM: ... Expect a pull-back from this level ("transmural"):

snapshot


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
10 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Reply
You showed both bullish and bearish target. Eventually, one of them going to hit. I remember that you were predicting a price decline before this rally.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO meghal.jani
Hello @meghal.jani, and thank you for keeping me honest.

The BULLISH targets were defined on 29 OCT 2015, and were expected to include TG-Hi and TG-Hix (WL is a "Watch Line" that would make any bearish target invalid ... I explain its significance in the $BTC room, and I'd be glad to cut/paste it for you here, for your review).

In contrast, the BEARISH target was defined on 01 NOV, in anticipation that it would represent a significant push-back level, if and once price reversed from the bullish targets.

You are absolutely right to point out that I could very well bracket the entire field with random price levels. However, numerical targets (TG-1, TG-2, ... TG-n) have a purpose to define future R/S levels whenever price move into new territories ("all-time highs or lows"), or to confirm prior R/S levels if and when returning to prior R/S levels.

In contrast, qualitative targets, such as TG-Hi, Hix, Lo, Lox represent highs/lows and extremes thereof, from which price will tend to not just retrace, but reverse. The forecast between qualitative and quantitative targets difference is measured by the probable degree of retracement:

1 - Quantitative Targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ..., TG-n) will tend to cause price to retrace in the Fibonacci order of 0.386 to 0.618,

WHEREAS,

2 - Qualitative Targets (i.e.: TG-Hi, TG-Hix, or TG-Lo TG-Lox) will tend to cause price to retrace in the Fibonacci order of at least 0.618, to include extensions such as 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414, 1.500 and 1.618.

Following is the message I had left on the day of the BULLISH targets, whereas the BEARISH targets had yet to be defined only three days later:
=========================
29 OCT 2015 - $BTC:

Alright. So, M15 dead. H1 dead. H4 dead = Big boys are buying like crazy.

snapshot


Looking at the Model from the UP-side, here are the most relevant and probable levels of resistance, in fading order:

1 - TG-Hi = 332.18 - 29 OCT 2015

2 - TG-Hix = 349.31 - 29 OCT 2015

AND

3 - WL = 372.22 - 29 OCT 2015

In terms of geometry, here is a probable ATHENA:
snapshot


Re-entry into SHORT is not worth, unless price commits to below the TRIGGER LINE:
snapshot


All future analysis will be rendered off of DAILY, until larger players are done flossing their teeth of retail trader remnants.

David
==========================

Again, thank you for keeping me and this community honest.

Sincerely,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Mathijs 4xForecaster
372.43 hit at Bitfinex. Uptrend is still strong I think.. Maybe to 400. Big resistance there.
+1 Reply
Here is a peek-a-booh insight in most recent analysis:

Simply put, price is at the cusp of defining a rally or confirming a retracement:

Here is the link - This is NOT an official release yet. I can only release it if and once DAILY chart fails based on Predictive/Forecasting Model's method of determining which of the timeframe gains (weekly) or retains (daily) control of price - if this control moves on to weekly, I will open a new thread. This one is getting too deep and heavy to download ... Keeps on having to reboot my Apple II.

https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya


Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
BTCMarket 4xForecaster
My two cents are we either see a healthy retracement from here having reached the 50% from last Junes decline or near that trendline 61.8% area. I'll be looking to take the long side beyond that 50 back or look for a short entry if there are signs of a reversal here.
snapshot
+1 Reply
Hello @BTCMarket - Sorry for this late reply ... I am going back in the messages and try to answer all today.

I have posted a few new charts on $BTC/#bitstamp exchange in the $BTC room ... Nothing too enlightening, I am afraid, but a continuous rumbling of the mental engine, as I await a significant price action.

Here is the link for your review of the entire room:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya

Here is the most recent comment with chart:
=============================
@iefan - I see how you are looking at it.

Yes, in this fashion, price can. The "mis"-behavior of the Quant-Target occurred by a lack of moving straight towards the Qual-Target - It is not a necessity, but a "next-step" occurrence that I had expected.
snapshot


Instead, and as you have charted it, it is quite possible that price would seek a resting place at the 0.618 level:
snapshot


This is a level which may also seek confirmation of a "transmural", or validation of a prior structure "across the wall":
snapshot


David Alcindor
=============================

And here is the archive of that $BTC room, which allows for perusing based on date ranges:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/history/?room=nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya&date=2015-11-08&tzoffset=420

Thank you for you insightful contribution here.

David Alcindor
Reply
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