4xForecaster

$BTCUSD #bitstamp Stomped, Mulls Decline | #bitcoin $BTC #forex

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
a year ago
Friends,

Just as #bitstamp rallies, it remains unable to break above a significant 275.00/295.89 threashold, best appreciated on a WEEKLY chart, as follows:


snapshot


A large geometry has outlined a Wolfe Wave completion at its Point-5 back on 12 JAN 2015, cratering a nadir at 152.40. However, a rallying from that candle has remained limp and lingering, allowing price to remain aloft that fateful candle's close, just above 211.85.


SO, WHAT NOW?

At this point, price action has delineated two physical structures, one above within a relatively narrow range of 275.00/295.89 and another below at 211.85, opening the possibility of two directional scenarios: One bullish (less probable) and one bearish (more probale).


THE BULLISH SCENARIO:

A bullish scenario would have to absorb the bearish nay-sayers that have built a solid entrenchment across this aforementioned 275.00/295.89 range.

Looking back, Point-3 of the large geometry offered a subsequent pivot where prior bulls converted to bears, and remained bears at the periods of 02 MAR, 09 MAR and 16 MAR 2015, which correspond to the bars where bulls have failed to climb a blood murk of an uphill.

Now, comes 20 JUN 2015 and this current week, where we remain at the low end of the bars, pulled not by gravitational disillusionment, but simply pushed by the same bearish resistance, well entrenched in that range.

It is this very range that, if overcome, would convert bears to bull and turn it from a resistance to support, and open the sky up to the price level of Point-4 above, namely the 442.00/453.92 range.


THE BEARISH SCENARIO:

In the more plausible realm, a decline should the prime object of contemplation here. Not because bears have their moment up above, but simply because this remains the path of least resistance, especially in a technical context.

For instance, a Fibonacci cluster between the 1-2 Leg extension at 1.414 and the recent failure from Point-5 to the pivot level, itself extending a 1.618 alignment - This discreet cluster offers room for price to carve out further decline, effectively knocking stop-losses on the way to building a much needed bullish momentum .

The most proximate support line remains the multi-year trendline which has imposed consistent support. This is the line which most junior traders will use as their reference, under which they will line up their stop-losses. This is thus the level to keep in sight, which if breached, is likely to cause a stop-loss glutonic spike down to as far as the Fib cluster, which is estimated to wait at about 58.96.

This last value is NOT a target, but a reasonable level of support, if indeed this bearish scenario were to play out.


OVERALL, price is getting squeeze by significant technical levels. A bullish scenario would have to come by in the tangible form of a major fundamental news release, as the technicals alone lack the weight to pierce through fat bears. In contrast, a bearish scenario would have to contemplate historical support which has widely indoctrinated a generation of Pavlovian cryto'ers, likely herding a field of stop-losses below this susceptible trendline.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----


.
a year ago
Comment: 28 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

From $BTC | Predictive & Forecasting Analysis room:

===================
[quote="4xForecaster"]Here is the most BULLISH scenario I can come up with:
snapshot


1 - First, it is nearly guaranted that we are in a prolong correction, hence the large, encompassing A-B-C pattern.

2 - Projection of such pattern (not in terms of Elliott Wave, but simply in terms of geometry), Wave-C projection off of Wave-B defines 363.66 as pan-ultimate top for this correction ... Near December 2015.

3 - The two most recent channels reflect R.N. Elliott channel methodology ... Hence, we just completed an Intermediate Wave-(3), whereas Intermediate Wave-(4) should be under development at this time.

4 - Based on same R. N. Elliott channel construction, the secondary channel (GREEN) points to a higher border validation at/near 363.66.

5 - Bad news is that from a total Wave, these broad sweeping correction will tend to return o the origin of Wave-A ... Interestingly, this fits the Predictive/Forecasting Model's outer most tolerable WL value = 152.72, defined this past SEP 2015.

So, as mentioned before, the only analyses are revealing at the H4 levels and above, offering a broad "bird'seye view" of what the Bitcoin trader will HAVE TO endure, not only in terms of adverse excursion if ever SHORT, but in counter-trend threat if taking a long position, especially near the current yet-to-define top.

Best,

David Alcindor[/quote]
===================

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 29 OCT 2015 - $BTC:

Alright. So, M15 dead. H1 dead. H4 dead = Big boys are buying like crazy.

snapshot


Looking at the Model from the UP-side, here are the most relevant and probable levels of resistance, in fading order:

1 - TG-Hi = 332.18 - 29 OCT 2015

2 - TG-Hix = 349.31 - 29 OCT 2015

AND

3 - WL = 372.22 - 29 OCT 2015

In terms of geometry, here is a probable ATHENA:
snapshot


Re-entry into SHORT is not worth, unless price commits to below the TRIGGER LINE:
snapshot


All future analysis will be rendered off of DAILY, until larger players are done flossing their teeth of retail trader remnants.

David
a year ago
Comment: 29 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

Following is a cut/paste from the room:

====================[quote="4xForecaster"]29 OCT 2015 - $BTC:

Alright. So, M15 dead. H1 dead. H4 dead = Big boys are buying like crazy.

snapshot


Looking at the Model from the UP-side, here are the most relevant and probable levels of resistance, in fading order:

1 - TG-Hi = 332.18 - 29 OCT 2015

2 - TG-Hix = 349.31 - 29 OCT 2015

AND

3 - WL = 372.22 - 29 OCT 2015

In terms of geometry, here is a probable ATHENA:
snapshot


Re-entry into SHORT is not worth, unless price commits to below the TRIGGER LINE:
snapshot


All future analysis will be rendered off of DAILY, until larger players are done flossing their teeth of retail trader remnants.

David[/quote]
====================

Best,

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 02 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

All targets hit ... Just posted in $BTC Room:

======================
02 NOV 2015 - All Targets Hit ... WL remains improbable, but pending:

$BTCUSD - M15 Chart:
snapshot


$BTCUSD - Daily Chart:
snapshot


David Alcindor
======================
($BTC Room: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya )


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 15 NOV 2015 - A recap of the past week postings on the $BTC Room (Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya )


====================================
[quote="4xForecaster"]07 NOV 2015 - $BTC-Weekly Chart:
snapshot


So far, the weekly chart has remained the most responsive chart. On 02 NOV 2015, it produced a series of bullish targets, namely:[/quote]


[quote="4xForecaster"]1 - TG-1 = 407.24 - 02 NOV 2015 - This is a quantitative target, so it has little reversible effect on price, but it will often cause price to return back to it, acting as a future R/S level (if in new price territories), or confirming prior R/S levels if moving into prior territories;

AND

2 - TG-2 = 504.57 - 02 NOV 2015 - Here too, the target is a "Quant-Target", so it has little to no stopping power ... Yet, this is exactly what occurred in the chart, interestingly (well, to me, since this is not suposed to occur - What should have occurred was a shallow retracement, then a push to the qualitative targets, TG-Hi, TG-Hix.)

Again, this $BTC is simply not acting as expected, so I won't really chance anything here in terms of predictive/forecasting pronouncement.

David Alcindor[/quote]


[quote="4xForecaster"]@iefan - I see how you are looking at it.

Yes, in this fashion, price can. The "mis"-behavior of the Quant-Target occurred by a lack of moving straight towards the Qual-Target - It is not a necessity, but a "next-step" occurrence that I had expected.
snapshot


Instead, and as you have charted it, it is quite possible that price would seek a resting place at the 0.618 level:
snapshot


This is a level which may also seek confirmation of a "transmural", or validation of a prior structure "across the wall":
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
a year ago
Comment: [quote="4xForecaster"]10 NOV 2015 - $BTC-Daily Chart:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]


[quote="4xForecaster"]... Expect a pull-back from this level ("transmural"):
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]


[quote="4xForecaster"]@Diabolicus - Transmural simply means across ("trans") the wall ("mural").

It's simply a term I use to refer to a probable price reacting to a structure high/low that exists on the other side of a swing.

In geometric terms, the wall ("mural") acts as a line of symmetry where a Resistance Level (R) turns into a Support Level (S) across the wall:
snapshot


This is a very simple patterning of price action which is quite ubiquitous.

For instance, within this same price field, there is another one at the bottom left:
snapshot


There is nothing too refined about these levels, except that most traders might over-react to the intervening swing (mural) and may forget that it can be used instead as a measuring stick to establish a probable support once price returns from its wild move ... That level is defined by the base that prepared for the swing. I use this to remain aware of a potential consolidation or reversal:
snapshot


Regarding the next price action IF price were to rise from the current level, then I could just as easily estimate a probable level of resistance (R) relative to the cluster of support (S) that occurred prior ro the significant down-swing - Following is what I would tend to project visually in the field.
snapshot

David
I may be a bit crude, but that is what I would do if I only had highs and lows to go by (structural analysis).[/quote]


[quote="4xForecaster"]14 NOV 2015 - $BTC:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]


[quote="4xForecaster"]14 NOV 2015 - $BTC - Weekly Chart:

Relevant validation points and possible level of support:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]


[quote="4xForecaster"]Hello @BitProf - First three targets are TG-1, 2, 3 - Numerical (quantitative) targets carry a HIGHER probability of being hit than qualitative targets, but lesser ability to cause reversal in price.

The last two values are TG-Lo and TG-Lox, which are qualitative targets. "Qual-targets" carry a LESSER probability of being hit relative to "Quant-Targets", but if attained, they will act as reversal levels.

David[/quote]


[quote="4xForecaster"]15 NOV 2015 - $BTC - 4-Hour Chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor
... Look for these possible symmetrical projections - David[/quote]
========================================


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Following is a cut/paste of what has been going on in the $BTC room:

=========================================
[quote="4xForecaster"]15 NOV 2015 - $BTC - 15-Min. Chart:

Failure of this area would be very bearish:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]16 NOV 2015 - $BTC - M15:
Price likely to be bound in this range - A break of either side may point to subsequent direction at this lower TF:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]16 NOV 2015 - $BTC - 15-Min. Chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]16 NOV 2015 - Re: $BTC - M15 Chart:
Watch for a break of floor risk:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]17 NOV 2015 - $BTC:
Bears are weighing down on M15 ... Floor continues to hold:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]18 NOV 2015 - $BTC - H1:

Price expected to rise to 375.35:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]... $BTC ... 377.21 is the approximate end of this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]... $BTC ... Fibonacci's 0.396 also in line with above technical points:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]... $BTC:

And of course, this standard 1.618-FE:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]


[quote="4xForecaster"]... $BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
A few days ago, I posted the following 4-hour chart, to which I have added each of the points:
snapshot


At the time, Point-4 remained uncertain. However, I would now suspect that Point-4 would find an approximate residence near 375.5, as per 1-hour chart.

Bringing the two timeframes (H1 and H4) together, here is what we get:
snapshot


Note that the alignment of the two ab = cd is lost (pink square pointed by arrow), ... until ab x 1.414 of the second symmetry regains alignment with the larger symmetry:
snapshot


OVERALL: Following is the expected geometry (BLUE), as well as bearish projection:
snapshot


Mind you that this 242.43 level represents just one bearish target ... See other targets in earlier posts.

David Alcindor
@Diabolicus - Yes. Fat fingers ... I meant to type 0.386. Thank you![/quote]
================================

Thank you for following. Much appreciate your interest in these and other analyses.

Best,

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: [quote="4xForecaster"]... $BTC: In addition to the larger Geo, here is an internal Geo development as well, suggesting a significant resistance at Point-4 of the larger (BLUE) Geo, in line with Point-5 of the internal Geo (BLACK):
snapshot


Following is a probable price pathway, taking into account all aforementioned geometric contributions:
snapshot



David Alcindor
[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]... $BTC - 4-Hour: I would pay particular attention to the RSI channel ... A new trend - predominantly bearish - has emerged, and the upper border of the channel could point to a probable level of corresponding top in price:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]... $BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
Following is a refinement of the 4-hour chart, having adjusted the 2-4 Line slope:
snapshot


David Alcindor[/quote]
[quote="4xForecaster"]18 NOV 2015 - $BTC - 4-Hour Chart:
As forecast, price continues to rally. As per recent analysis, this is expected to represent a limited bullish move, fashioned by the Geo and other aforementioned technical bounds:
snapshot


David Alcindor.[/quote]
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Ero23
a year ago
"A bullish scenario would have to come by in the tangible form of a major fundamental news release"

- Greek default and capital controls
- Equity disaster in China
- The US stock market has been pumped by artificially low interest rates, and could easily repeat 2008's high dive act.

The odds of Bitcoin going much higher are becoming more probable, and more likely by the minute.
+6 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Ero23
a year ago
Sure. But it'll take more than fundamentals. People identify with a currency grounded in a physical earth-like place. The leap of faith that Bitcoin requires is too far a gap to fathom for most consumers.

For now. It'll take wears, tears and a whole lot of flares before it takes on a universal place. But that will require countries to understand how they can control it. If it cannot be a diplomatic tool, it will take longer to take a larger part in economies.

We are in the midst of a currency war, after all.

David
+8 Reply
manipuflated 4xForecaster
a year ago
How many people are really needed though?

Because of the limited supply, bitcoin seems to be a market that is easily pushed around with very little liquidity. It only took 0.02% (complete guess) of the global population to push the price from $120 to $1200 last time. It took about $20m if the gox willy bot story is to be believed.

Didn't Richard Branson have some sort of collusion invite to his bitcoin Island party recently? lol
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manipuflated
a year ago
This currency is built such that there is diminishing chance of mining out more of it, so there is a proportionate energy needed to move it - This is how it's built.

Still, it's not a matter of how many people, but legislative choice from countries willing to grapple with it.

D.
+7 Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
a year ago
CNBC world just mentioned bitcoin as a currency option for greece...lol. The public is getting all bull on bitcoin https://twitter.com/CNBCWorld/status/618796784052113408
+1 Reply
Jameve Jameve
a year ago
Just to be clear, there's no word on if the government is actually considering bitcoin and it's very unlikely. Just speculation in the article about bitcoin.
+1 Reply
manipuflated 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks for your insight David. Pen to paper laws will definitely effect price.

What percentage would you say you are leaning if u could put a number on it? 33% Bullish & 66% Bearish?

Can I tip with BTC on around these parts?

Thanks again.
+1 Reply
manipuflated manipuflated
a year ago
Me thinks we're too bearish around here. I'm going to bed. :(
+1 Reply
manipuflated manipuflated
a year ago
Wow so much bad exchange news will happen tomorrow. OKCoin really screwed over a lot of people.
Reply
afbitcoins manipuflated
a year ago
Not me ;-)
Reply
Well put, David. Very nice post as always.
+1 Reply
afbitcoins
a year ago
On log price scale there has been a very obvious break out, I don't really see resistance at $275 lasting very long at all.
Reply
penny_b_reaker
a year ago
David,
First of all, love your ideas! I forward your stuff to everyone who asks me about Bitcoin forecasting. My question is: What impact do you believe LTC to have in recently smashing through September resistance, if any, in forming a bull/bear bias?
Reply
afbitcoins
a year ago
As I expected $275 resistance easily surpassed.
Reply
10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCUSD / #bitstamp drills thru stiff bears; Consider 373.35 early bullish conversion; Bearish til then:

snapshot


#bitcoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
Chartistry PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
David,

If Bitstamp cannot break the 295.89 threshold, the charts remain bearish. If it does break the threshold, charts become bullish with the 373.35 target in mind? Does this same scenario play out in Bitfinex?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Chartistry
a year ago
Hello @CryptoChartist - let me clarify using your statement and correcting:

1 - TRUE = If Bitstamp cannot break the 295.89 threshold, the charts remain bearish.

2 - FALSE = If it does break the threshold, charts become bullish with the 373.35 target in mind?

3 - TRUE = If it does break the 373.35 threshold, charts become bullish - In sum, a BACA > 373.35 would convert Model's bias from bearish to early bullish. A confirmation would occur if price BACA > 453.92

Until then, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains BEARISH - It's not a question of opinion or feeling, as I read some suggesting that I may be a bear. I do not and never traded any of the crypto-currencies (I simply use a quant-model that free-share with this community), so I can say that I am pretty neutral, unbiased and have no skin in these analyses.

I suspect that DAILY chart will remain more and more important in analysis, as opposed to lower-timeframes, since institutional interest might increase in these alternate currencies, especially as financial problem continue to raise concerns about China, Europe and continental USA.


David
+4 Reply
Chartistry PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you for clarifying David. I will keep an eye on this level as we come close to the 295.89 mark.
Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
a year ago
BTC China made it to the equivalent of $386. Huobi and OKCoin got to around $350. Chinese exchanges went very high, but BTCE, Bitstamp, and Bitfinex were limited to the 290s. I am curious, what do you think of this recent price movement on BTC China?
+2 Reply
manipuflated 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks David. Didn't mean to sound like I was accusing anyone of having a bearish "agenda". Last night was insane with the DDOS'ing and shenanigans. My condolences to anyone that got screwed on OKC and all that retarded bullish sentiment on LTC at the last minute.

Going forward I'm honestly at a loss of what to do. If anyone has bearish desires it is me, heh. It makes me sad that all these targets must be waited on for confirmation. Sitting in fiat and all I see is my estimated BTC balance continually dwindling since 260. I'll have way less coins than I did before if I just sit on my thumbs waiting for such high targets of confirmation.

I guess I just need to make a choice and stick to it. Do I care more about BTC balance or USD balance? I want to love bitcoin but consolidation hell is ridiculous if that is what we're in.

Thanks again for your thoughts.
+1 Reply
11 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCUSD #bitstamp mulls 5'; Geo's Off-Set Rule would offer 292.57 floor; Vanishing probability of lower supports:

snapshot

----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
wonky_tonky 4xForecaster
a year ago
you got a middterm chart on btc with latest development aka mad bullish move? thanks
Reply
Macainian 4xForecaster
a year ago
So doesn't this mean that the overall bearish outlook is over? We are now looking to $373 correct? I realize that it may pull back to this $292ish area, but overall we are going up to $373 right?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Macainian
a year ago
No, not what the Model suggests - You are asking the same question as another trader did yesterday - My answer:

================================
Hello @CryptoChartist - let me clarify using your statement and correcting:

1 - TRUE = If Bitstamp cannot break the 295.89 threshold, the charts remain bearish.

2 - FALSE = If it does break the threshold, charts become bullish with the 373.35 target in mind?

3 - TRUE = If it does break the 373.35 threshold, charts become bullish - In sum, a BACA > 373.35 would convert Model's bias from bearish to early bullish. A confirmation would occur if price BACA > 453.92

Until then, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains BEARISH - It's not a question of opinion or feeling, as I read some suggesting that I may be a bear. I do not and never traded any of the crypto-currencies (I simply use a quant-model that free-share with this community), so I can say that I am pretty neutral, unbiased and have no skin in these analyses.

I suspect that DAILY chart will remain more and more important in analysis, as opposed to lower-timeframes, since institutional interest might increase in these alternate currencies, especially as financial problem continue to raise concerns about China, Europe and continental USA.


David
=============================

Is this making sense? The L/T outlook remains bearish - 373 represents a level of conversion. If bears turn to bull, expect consolidation above 373.


David
+2 Reply
12 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCUSD / #bitstamp hits 5' on mark; High-probability decline to 292.57 per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


#bitcoin $BTC
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Chartistry PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
David,

The last 4 hour candle hit 317.99. Is this. 5"? Does this change the GEO Off-Set Rule?
+1 Reply
Jameve Chartistry
a year ago
I actually charted it, it went past the 5" (it hit at 309-310) by $8 but it is a small timeframe chart so I assume it is susceptible to higher timeframe interference
+1 Reply
Chartistry PRO Jameve
a year ago
Jameve,

So when the projected GEO is broken how does one reasses their analysis?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Chartistry
a year ago
@CryptoChartist - Failed targets (i.e.: price steam-rolls right through it) suggests that the timeframe under consideration is superseded by a higher timeframe.

Typically, whenever a M15-level fails, I simply look up 4 times the order of the timeframe, such that:

1 - M15 x 4 = 1-hour timeframe
2 - H1 x 4 = 4-hour timeframe
3 - H4 x 4 = 16 hours, but I simply look at the daily in this case
4 - Daily x 4 = 4-day, so a weekly will do on most chart, since there are usually only 5 days of trading
5 - Weekly x 4 = Monthly timeframe.

This is the reason why I almost exclusively trade and do analyses off of the H4, since it involves both institutional and retail sides (a better synthetic view of these two markets), and it allows more time to scan over the many charts I follow every day.

Makes sense?


In reversing the order, I also "calibrate" my trade, say from a H4 down to a H1, and H1 down to M15 whenever I need to fine tune or look at what geometry my be developing at a lesser timeframe, which could signal the start of a move or justify a geometry developing (and interfering) at a higher timeframe.


David
+5 Reply
Chartistry PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Makes sense
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Jameve
a year ago
@Jameve - Absolutely right. The slippages get larger in smaller timeframes - David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Chartistry
a year ago
Hello @CryptoChartist - The rule does not change. It's till the Off-Set rule, which states that:

1 - If price reverses from Point-5, its highest probability attainment is the 1-4 Line (this is the Wolfe Wave rule)

2 - If price reverses from Point-5-prime (5'), its highest probability attainment is the price level corresponding to Point-4

and

3 - If price reverses from Point-5-second (5''), its highest probability attainment is the price level corresponding to Point-3


snapshot



So, in this context, the 3rd rule applies for this situation - CAVEAT here about this crypto is that this is a relatively SMALL timeframe, so there is a lot more interference and lesser precision that the Model can do in terms of defining a reliable target. However, the Geo's Off-Set Rule stands alone and independent of the Predictive/Forecasting Model and should remain adequate here.


David
+2 Reply
Macainian 4xForecaster
a year ago
Why is $279.13 highlighted? I didn't see any mention of 5' as a point of interest. Will it bounce off of this point before going lower to 3?
+1 Reply
manipuflated Macainian
a year ago
I think the media is going to slowly start talking about BTC again after a long silence. CNBC, NYSE, Nasdaq, Bloomberg put in their longs low 200's IMO. If you follow bitcoin news you know why I mention that.

I'm going to lean more towards bullish scenarios again because I'm happy with my current coin count. Going to enjoy the summer. David I owe you a coin tip for all your efforts.

Good luck everyone.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Macainian
a year ago
@ Macainian - I kept it as a threshold between 5' and 5'' - Not relevant in here; just a visual reference I decided to keep in the chart.

At this point, the 5'' has been attained and price has reacted to it, so the highest probability support has become the price level corresponding to Point-3, as follows:


snapshot



If price rises further and ignores the chance of support at Point-3, then the market is not controlling this timeframe, but a higher timeframe. In such case, I immediately turn to up to a factor of four, that is:

M15 x 4 = H1 timeframe, and seek relevance there. If none, then another level up, such that H1 x 4 = H4 timeframe.

The higher the timeframe, the larger the players - At or above H4, I would suspect institutional-level interference (no amount of retail level players can really move markets).


David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
At this point, I would focus on this H4 timeframe ONLY:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
13 JUL 2015 - UPDAT:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCUSD / #bitstamp pushed thru 5'; Rolls from 5''; Eyes 257.39 high-prob. target per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


#bitcoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Chartistry PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hello David,

Would the Target at 257.39 be the beginning of a new wave pattern?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Chartistry
a year ago
Hello @CryptoChartist ,

Yes, it is very possible. Many of the 1-2 Leg of the Geo tend to have a broad sweep, just as this one seems to starts with. However, it might be a bit too soon to tell. A lot of the reactive moves can occur without any other purpose than concluding the full cycle of the Geo, which concludes once price reverses and reaches its Off-Set Rule-based target.

Here, we are looking at an exhaustive pause/consolidation to occur at/near the level of Point-3, which would complete the current Geo cycle.

David
+2 Reply
Chartistry PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
I see, I will keep a close eye to watch it unfold. Very interesting.
+1 Reply
Lanmar PRO
a year ago
Why are you not using a logarthmic chart for a market that rallied thousands of percentage points? If you ask me, fibonacci numbers have little, if any relevance at all in an arithmatic scale when calculating the price of corn from a nickel to $4 per bushel. I have no attachment to Bitcoin whatsoever. But I think your analysis is somewhat flawed. Not necessarily because of your targets, support, or areas of weakness - I agree in some cases. Do you have a reason for not using a log scale as a metric? Thanks.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Lanmar
a year ago
Hello @Lanmar,

Here is a couple of point for you:

1 - I am asked this question quite often. Simply put, the foreground tool I use in my predictive analyses/forecasting is a model that provides numerical targets, not geometric or arithmetic levels, so the scaling it irrelevant. A $4 per bushel or a $1.12345 $USDEUR targets are just that: $4.00 and $1.12345.

2 - The Predictive/Forecasting Model ("Model") is valid and applicable to any price-moving asset. It matters not whether it is applied to stocks, indices, commodities, Forex or bitcoin - If you are requesting a chart for corn, I would be more than happy to oblige, but I simply do not cover these commodities in general

3 - Fibonacci numbers have great relevance. If you do not find any relevance in your charts, I would beg to differ, and I would be glad to demonstrate examples to the contrary. However, and to be clear, Fibonacci are what I would call tertiary tools in my analyses. ALL of the targets I first and foremost defined by the Model. By offering market geometries, such as the Wolfe Wave and my own "Geo" system, I do all I can to provide a background visual support to price action against a foreground of Model-defined targets. Still, Fibonacci are NOT all that is required to trade, but they will justify the pacing, or "gait" of any price - Just as anyone's tride, certain markets have a propensity towards certain "stride", and that is one aspect that is specific to any asset. As one may recognize a rabbit by its pattern in fresh snow, so can it be anticipated. The Fibs have this to offer to any price-moving asset. If you add clusters, then you have a good tool to use as support to other features. Again, not everyone will find it useful, but I would not go as for as calling it irrelevant in the scales, where it be arithmetic or algorithmic.

4 - I have no attachment to anything. Be it Bitcoin, Forex, metals, indices, or stocks. I trade stocks, ETFs and Forex, but I do NOT look at what is the underlying asset when the Model tells me that it defined a high-probability target for me. I do look at the asset for the sake of discussion here, but it matters as long as it is a moving asset expressed in any unit at any scale - This is the way the Model works. You mentioned both corn and bitcoin here, but I am not sure I understand what you are conveying here. I get that you are asking or perhaps simply expressing dismay at the lack of algorithmic scale, but again, it has no relevance to the Model, and little change in the analyses, since every thing else is secondary (WW and Geo) or tertiary (Fibs), or even completely irrelevant (scale, time, volume) to the Model - I don't want to reduce these indicators to irrelevancy as far as what they may represent to someone else's technical analysis, but in the context of the Model, there is no use for these background features.

5 - Not sure how you can state that the analysis I offer is flawed without explaining what aspect of it contributes to its being flawed. I suggest to any junior traders to turn to more popular technicians than me, since I offer admittedly occult reasoning to the targets. But feel free to Google 4xForecaster + Target Hit + Alcindor, and review all the analysis that preceded that target getting hit. I have also a much older archive of hit targets I posted, but Google should be able to point you out to the right direction. I would be more than happy to read more on your opinion that justifies the flaw in my analysis, but as with the rest of the world, I am result oriented, and if the flaw you see rests on the scale choice, than you will see from the "Target Git" results that it never mattered once.

I hope I answered most of your questions. Feel free to post and elaborate on your reasoning. I believe that algorithmic scale is an important charting feature to consider, but that in some cases, as in the one that defines my analysis, it is not as impactful as it might be to someone else's technical analysis.

Best,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hello @Lanmar - Here is a chart I just posted, reviewing great relevance of Fibonacci to Corn/CBOT for your leisurely review:


Chart/Analysis/Forecast: "#Corn #cbot: Predictive/Forecasting Model Eyes 202'6 #fibonacci"
David
snapshot

Source:
#Corn #cbot: Predictive/Forecasting Model Eyes 202



David
+1 Reply
Lanmar PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Sorry for late response. Good work
+1 Reply
21 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCUSD / #bitstamp continues its languorous decline to 257.39 as forecast; Bears remain in charge:

snapshot


#bitcoin $BTC
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
21 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCUSD breaks floor of symmetrical triangle as fat bears continue to feed off of scant bulls:

snapshot


#bitcoin #bitstamp
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
M4B0X. 4xForecaster
a year ago
Bitstamp isn't market mover and usualy is most bearish.
Actualy, I filled long right there in Asia session (last 7 days turning point) just booked some profits on futures, rest on trailing stop (expecting more up or just SL hunt late NY, early Sydney).
snapshot
+1 Reply
M4B0X. M4B0X.
a year ago
Here we go, triangle breakout! Just after okcoin settlement.
And one more turning point in Asia session.
snapshot
Reply
Hello David,

Is the 257-259 target still in tact? What level does the price need to reach in order to invalidate that target?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Chartistry
a year ago
Hello @CryptoChartist,

Sorry for this late reply ... Taking a little fam-vacay.

Yes, the lower target defined by the Geo remains intact. It may be further supported by this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry ... The target is NOT 259 as you wrote, but remains the 257/254 range, as shown in the chart:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+5 Reply
Chartistry PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
No worries thank you for taking the time to respond! Enjoy your vacation!
Reply
02 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCUSD carves out ower-lows; Remains on tack to 254/257 range per Geo's OffSet Rule:

snapshot


$BTC $USD #bitcoin #bitstamp
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+6 Reply
ambition1 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,there will be a big rebound in the vicinity of 255?
Reply
09 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$BTCUSD / #bitstamp nears 257 target; Interim rally limited; Bears remain in charge:

snapshot


$BTC #bitcoin #cryptocurrency
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
wonky_tonky 4xForecaster
a year ago
if i just followed your charts.; i'd be a rich guy by now ;) ..
+2 Reply
bitsunrise 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks again David! Really appreciated!
+2 Reply
16 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCUSD #bitstamp hit target dead-on per Geo's Off-Set Rule; Bears remain in force:

snapshot


$BTC #bitcoin #cryptocurrency
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
wonky_tonky 4xForecaster
a year ago
nice.. so now what?.. up again for a while.. to continue bear trend?
Reply
sprkz 4xForecaster
a year ago
'Signal Out' - what does this mean? I imagine it's an exit point for a short trade.. if otherwise pls let me know, thanks!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO sprkz
a year ago
Hello @sprkz - Yes, it simply refers to a suggested level of entry and exit:


12 JUL 2015:
snapshot



13 JUL 2015:
snapshot



13 JUL 2015:
snapshot



21 JUL 2015:
snapshot



31 JUL 2015:
snapshot



09 AUG 2015:
snapshot



16 AUG 2015:
snapshot



As of today (17 AUG 2015), price remains caught into the forecast targeted price range, as follows:


17 AUG 2015:
snapshot



Best,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
sprkz 4xForecaster
a year ago
many thanks David !
+1 Reply
18 AUG 2015 - FYI, Re: $LTCUSD

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$LTCUSD #litecoin fell as forecast; Broke 3.20 floor; Bears still in charge:

snapshot


$LTC $USD #bitcoin #cryptocurrency
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Hello David,

bitfinex made a new low at 162. Is 58.96 still a plausible target?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Chartistry
a year ago
@CryptoChartist: Yes. This remains the higher probable event for the time being.

David
Reply
24 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$BTCUSD still in decline as forecast; Nears significant historical trendline:

snapshot


#bitstamp #bitcoin $BTC $USD #forex
----------


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
hey did you checked the CNY/BTC Graph? Bitcoin going to 130$ today!! http://bit.ly/1IbYTzs
Reply
08 SEP 2015 - Tech-Note:

Price stomped at two significant 50% levels. I would be very surprised if it rose higher than current level (pink arrow):


snapshot



I have offered my own interpretation of Elliott Wave degrees. It appears that the most internal (i-ii-iii-iv-v) completed, whereas the most external (squared-in numbers) remain unanswered as far as complete impulse cycle goes.


David
+5 Reply
08 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$BTC #bitstamp still under bear pressure w/ limited upside potential; Internal EW eyes lower lows:

snapshot


#bitcoin


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Here is what I have been posting recently in the "Predictive Analysis & Forecsating Room", looking at the $BTCUSD / #bitstamp within finer-grain frames - Following is a frame by frame re-posting of the comments and chart illustrations:


14 SEP 2015 - $BTC / Bitstamp:

Geo's OSR #3 + TGs - H1 chart:

David
snapshot

Re: $BTC/Bitstamp:

snapshot

Re: $BTC/Bitstamp:

snapshot

Re: $BTC/Bitstamp:

Price negotiate 1-3 Line; Risk of limited decline before rally, as shown in chart.

snapshot


David Alcindor
snapshot

14 SEP 2015 - Re: $BTC/Bitstamp:

Remains tethered to 1-3 Line; Follows probable pattern:

snapshot


David
15 SEP 2015 - Re: $BTC/Bitstamp:

Bounced off of its forecast support as it completes the zig-zag:

snapshot


David
16 SEP 2015 - Re: $BTC / Bitstamp:

As price continues to devolve per original forecast, internal pattern remained subdued to Geo's 1-3 Line without attempt to validate opposite 2-4 Line.

As price reached the 5'' level, the Geo's Off-Set Rule remains the expected outcome here, with an attainment of Point-3 price level, in the 234.78/236.09 range.

snapshot


David Alcindor
snapshot

16 SEP 2015 - Re: $BTCUSD/Bitstamp:

Expecting an Elliott Wave (EW) Expanded Flat, as shown:

snapshot


David
snapshot



16 SEP 2015 - Re: $BTC / bitstamp:

Although we have not yet touched on some more occult aspects of market geometries, note that all of the strategy at this time is occurring within the highlighted BLUE range, defined prior by a range called a NODE. The Node has a core, which is nothing more than its 50% level, and that level will project forward a new R/S level or pivot, if it's created at a now structural high/low, or may re-affirm a prior R/S level if within range of old price action - See following chart:

snapshot


David
156 SEP 2015 - $BTC/Bitstamp - CORRECTION: I corrected the origin of wave-A (pink), but it won't change any of the original analysis:

snapshot


David Alcindor
17 SEP 2015 - Re: $BTC/Bitstamp:

Price crosses above the 1-3 Line for once:

snapshot


David
17 SEP 2015 - Re: $BTC/Bitstamp:

Hit target defined by the Geo's Off-Set Rule #3:

snapshot


David

+6 Reply
18 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Price remains subdued under price level corresponding to Point-3; Testing upside is possible but limited; Remains bearish overall:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+7 Reply
18 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Price remains subdued to level of Point-3, respecting Geo's Off-Set Rule #3:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
19 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


As price continues to mull a potential decline, here is also a potential background geometry (ghosted in blue):


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
manipuflated 4xForecaster
a year ago
I feel like I can see a higher ghosted blue 4" around 240's beyond 4. But that isn't based on any geo other than my eye looking for it.
Reply
19 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Recent Chart Analyses


Following are frames and comments cut/pasted from "$BTC | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster", where I post a few preliminary charts before committing them to these threads, so as to keep things clean ... Sort of a scratch notebook:

==========================
19 SEP 2015 - $BTC / Bitstamp:

Preliminary Geo as shown in M60 chart. 50% line remains effective throughout.

Expecting another challenge to the upside as LOW probability event. Bears remain in charge:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Point-b is not necessarily Point-3.

Need to wait for price to carve a new low below 230.83, as recent structure - Until then, all these lines are meaningless:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Update:

snapshot


David
$BTC - Watch for this Fib cluster potential:

snapshot


David
19 SEP 2015 - Looking at it from the H4 level, one may consider measuring the decline by this simpler symmetry:

snapshot


David
19 SEP 2015 - Here is the H4-level I would be counting upon, as long as the "H" level is not breached:

snapshot


So, at this point, there should be TWO sets of targets, one that I posted a few days ago, constrained within the H&S geometry at a H1 level, and a H4-level, just defined as:

1 - TG-Lo = 190.73 - 19 SEP 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 174.46 - 19 SEP 2015

with a Watch Line ("WL") defined as:

WL = 152.72 - 19 SEP 2015

David Alcindor
============================


David Alcindor
+6 Reply
20 SEP 2015 - Here is what is being tossed around overnight:


==========================
20 SEP 2015 - Looking for this possible top-side failure; A Wolfe Wave may represent a possible mechanism by which this would occur:

snapshot


David Alcindor
20 SEP 2015 - $BTC remains close to forecast pathway; Strives to cross over impulse's 50% Line:

snapshot


David Alcindor
20 SEP 2015 - $BTC stabs support; Cannot commit above 50% Line; Expect spiking failure to the upside with bearish resolution:

snapshot

David Alcindor
==========================


David
+2 Reply
20 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Keeping an eye on the mother chart, here is where it stands since forecast:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
21 SEP 2015 - A review of discreet price analysis: What price alone, in the absence of any complex Predictive/Forecasting Model can tell you about the market's directional intentions:

=========================
21 SEP 2015 - $BTC 1-Hour Chart:

Bears are gaining traction:

snapshot


David Alcindor
21 SEP 2015 - $BTC 4-Hour Chart:

snapshot


Looking at the larger picture - Bears dominate the field.

David Alcindor
The purpose of the 50% lines in these charts is not to highlight the simple geometries, but to bring to sight the sustained underlying inability of this market to rally to levels greater than even half of the prior decline - David
21 SEP 2015 - $BTC:

Sustained 50% line failures; Bears in charge:

snapshot


Look for sustained 75+ percent (or 78.6% in Fibonacci terms) retracements to the UP-side, combined with shallower retracement of 38.6% to the down-side as a way to detect EARLY reversal market intentions, if you have nothing else to use but price - This is basic price study, combined with simple Fibonacci levels.

David Alcindor
=========================


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

What about this bigger Wolve Wave on the 4H timeframe? The point 3 is a 5" from a smaller Geo and implies we should visit point 3 in the 260 area, and then decline to your targets 190-174.

snapshot


Rgds.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
a year ago
Hello @eYou1,

Here is how would cast a Geo or Wolfe Wave, using the same price field as the one you presented above:


snapshot



First, there are several things to consider, outside of any geometry, which some of the Elliott Wave practitioner would tend to agree:

1 - The dominant trend is down
2 - The down-trend was confirmed and marked by a 5-wave bearish impulse which remains incomplete
3 - The current stage of the bearish impulse is that of a 4th wave correction, whose top remains to be determined (which is really the exercise at hand at this moment)
4 - Once the current 4th wave completes, a resumption of the bearish impulse will finish the 5th and last wave to a entire bearish impulse, expecting lower lows to be carved, unless a truncation occurs.


In terms of proportionality, considering the Elliott Wave's Rule Of Alternations, Wave-4 rose to about twice the height of Wave-2, and is now moving into the 4th time zone taken for Wave-2 to complete. Whether an exact 1:2 ration is maintained remains to be seen, but so far, these ratios have also plagued the bulls, as demonstrated earlier, when they would remain capped under by a 50% reaction every time they would organize a rally.

That level (50% = 1:2) is highlighted in the chart, as well as the issue of proportions that link Wave-2 and Wave-4:

snapshot



IF bulls are able to rally at paces that exceed the 50%, then you should consider that they are gaining traction. But for this to occur, they would have to break above the 4th wave via a bullish impulse, and retrace with a higher low, expecting for this to occur in days or weeks, if that were the case.


For the time being, the Predictive/Forecasting Model is not signaling that to occur, and remains bearish with the targets unanswered. What I have tried to do at the much smaller timeframes is to decipher a possible mechanism by which:

1 - Price would step down stepping on geometries as it moves towards the target

as well as

2 - Price would develop counter-trend features that would make the bearish scenario a no-probability - So far, this has not gained much traction, and the bearish scenario prevails until such time that a significant reversal occurs. I would NOT look at M15 or H1 for confirmation, but instead look for a correction following a forceful, impulsive advance to the upside (in Elliott Wave terms).


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - Magnified View of the H4 chart:


Here are the levels I would be concerned if holding a short position:

1 - 234.61 = This is the 50% ceiling which bulls have not been able to rally against, not just this particular line, but most other, prior rallying attempts - I believe I posted a chart on this particular 50% failure issue. This has become such a repetition, that one should use this as a patterned behavior, which if broken then might - just might - constitute the start of something new and counter-trending.

and

2 - 246.24 - This is the level carved by Elliott Wave's 4th wave termination level. Now, remember that in Elliott Wave, there are several forms of corrections, but only one is capable to carve a higher high before plummeting back into new depths. So, best is to look for an impulse wave to the UP-side, and wait for a correction to the level of the 4th wave of the one-lesser degree. Then, and only then one should consider the possibility of a reversal.


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
BTCMarket PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
I'm no expert in Wolfe Waves or even Elliot Wave for that matter but imo it seems apparent price will see plenty of resistance in this chart and anything above the line looks bullish if we see a retest and continuation from that area. I would assume this is where we see the next decline if price fails to stay above.
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BTCMarket
a year ago
Very cool!

David
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

Thank you for your charts and explanation. 234.61 is broken. Interesting to see what happens next.

Rgds.
+1 Reply
MoonTrader eYou
a year ago
234.61 is touched, but not broken yet.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO MoonTrader
a year ago
Hello @MoonTrader - Yes, bulls are sticking there neck out of the blood-murkied slaughterhouse field and tasting the greener grass, getting electrocuted at the 234.61 invisi-fence. It'll take heavy weight bulls to break that line and push them to grassier knolls.

Right now, there are timid bulls, but not enough to throw the fences down.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
25 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


First, let's post the chart and contemplate what's in the filed:

snapshot



These are the elements that are worth heeding:

1 - Price made a time-consumptive correction in the form of a Flat, with internals defining a 3-3-5 structure, ending as a A-B-C pattern
2 - The Flat is typically expanding according to 1.618-Fib levels. A 1.618 level was attained but never challenged
3 - The C-wave of the flat weaves its last segment of the leg along a prior 50% line of a pivot. These are the levels which we have been consulting to detect any momentum gain among bears. It appears that it was breached in a symmetrical fashion, but then abandoned.


OVERALL, this Flat remains a temporary respite before resumption of the general direction, which in this case is down. I am doing the best I can to step outside of the Predictive/Forecasting Model outlook, which remains bearish, and see whether there are other independent and verifiable clues for a rallying. I have to say that I have not come across these bullish, bear-bashing technical clues as of yet.

Best.,


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
26 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Following is something I wrote in the chatroom, in response to a query about a possible alternate Wolfe Wave that would be pointing to higher highs, to as much as 260. While this scenario remains possible, I explain that I have to follow the Predictive/Forecasting Model's bearish targets, which stands as its own "thinking" process, defining things that may be too challenging to accept, but may become apparent in hindsight. Yet, this should not remove all other creative thoughts and directional biases, as there is no absolute possibility to know what's ahead. Only probabilities.

Here is my reply and chart:

======================
26 SEP 2015 - $BTC / Bitstamp - 4-Hour Chart:

snapshot


In this chart, there are several indications pointing to a probable decline, besides the Predictive/Forecasting Model persistent mid-term targets (Longer-term bearish targets are shown in the DAILY chart, I believe).

Using the Geo's points are reference, this geometry is starting its 1-2 Leg at the half-end of a correction defined in the chart by a squared-in number , corresponding to Point-2 of the Geo.

If you keep in mind that this correction started off of , then you might get the impression that further downside, to levels lower than remains probable, unless the wave that follows , namely the 5th and last wave of a much larger 1-2-3-4-5 bearish impulse results in a truncation.

Now, looking back at the Geo's Point-2, it follows an internal 5-wave (i-ii-iii-iv-v) decline to Point-3, whereas a larger, internal 5-wave decine remains unfinished, such that the 1-2-3-4-5 count rests its own point-3 with that of the Geo's Point-3.

What follows with that 1-2-3-4-5 wave from its poin-3 is a large A-B-C correction with internal waves sequenced as 5-3-5 - This is effectively a Flat, since this is the ONLY correction whose first wave count starts with a 5-wave pattern (FYI: it then links up with a 3-wave at B, then concludes with a 5-wave at C).

This internal correction is a Flat, which has completed at Point-4 of the Geo.

It thus comes to reason that at this point, we are looking for a downward resumption of price action, in order to complete the 1-2-3-4-5, where 4 = Flat = A-B-C.

OVERALL: It is very possible that I am completely incorrect as far as the internal wave count goes, or that I am partially correct, but that this current A-B-C correction might become something of a more complicated nature ... This is one aspect of wave counting that I do not care too much for,as this is not a predictive exercise, in the sense where too many as probable combination of waves, especially corrective waves, can branch into a more and more complicated price action.

For this reason, I keep as objective as I can by letting the Predictive/Forecasting Model do the thinking, labeling and forecasting for me. Too many times have I used my own reasoning against it and lost money - It may not be right 100 percent of the times, but it has beat me 100% of the times, as I would most often react contrary to it when it appears that its forecast would simply be too dumb or improbable. It simply detects movement in the market that becomes obvious in hindsight.

======================

Have a fantastic and safe week-end.

Best,


David Alcindor
+6 Reply
26 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / tech-Note / Interim development:


Here is what occurred so far in the "$BTC | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chatroom today:

======================
26 SEP 2015 - $BTC / Bitstamp - 4-Hour Chart:

snapshot


In this chart, there are several indications pointing to a probable decline, besides the Predictive/Forecasting Model persistent mid-term targets (Longer-term bearish targets are shown in the DAILY chart, I believe).

Using the Geo's points are reference, this geometry is starting its 1-2 Leg at the half-end of a correction defined in the chart by a squared-in number , corresponding to Point-2 of the Geo.

If you keep in mind that this correction started off of , then you might get the impression that further downside, to levels lower than remains probable, unless the wave that follows , namely the 5th and last wave of a much larger 1-2-3-4-5 bearish impulse results in a truncation.

Now, looking back at the Geo's Point-2, it follows an internal 5-wave (i-ii-iii-iv-v) decline to Point-3, whereas a larger, internal 5-wave decine remains unfinished, such that the 1-2-3-4-5 count rests its own point-3 with that of the Geo's Point-3.

What follows with that 1-2-3-4-5 wave from its poin-3 is a large A-B-C correction with internal waves sequenced as 5-3-5 - This is effectively a Flat, since this is the ONLY correction whose first wave count starts with a 5-wave pattern (FYI: it then links up with a 3-wave at B, then concludes with a 5-wave at C).

This internal correction is a Flat, which has completed at Point-4 of the Geo.

It thus comes to reason that at this point, we are looking for a downward resumption of price action, in order to complete the 1-2-3-4-5, where 4 = Flat = A-B-C.

OVERALL: It is very possible that I am completely incorrect as far as the internal wave count goes, or that I am partially correct, but that this current A-B-C correction might become something of a more complicated nature ... This is one aspect of wave counting that I do not care too much for,as this is not a predictive exercise, in the sense where too many as probable combination of waves, especially corrective waves, can branch into a more and more complicated price action.

For this reason, I keep as objective as I can by letting the Predictive/Forecasting Model do the thinking, labeling and forecasting for me. Too many times have I used my own reasoning against it and lost money - It may not be right 100 percent of the times, but it has beat me 100% of the times, as I would most often react contrary to it when it appears that its forecast would simply be too dumb or improbable. It simply detects movement in the market that becomes obvious in hindsight.
26 SEP 2015 - $BTC / Bitstamp - 4-Hour chart:

As discussed in the larger public thread, a Flat appears to be the developing pattern at this time.

I have posted in this new chart the level at which a Flat could possibly muster a rally, as it is often seen that point-C of this A-B-C corrective pattern can be expressed as a function of point-A relative to Fibonacci, such that:

C = 1.618 x A = 242.40.

Here is what the chart looks like at this time:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Based on this developing corrective pattern, I would not entertain any additional short expectation until a bearish impulse followed by a correction comes complete.
26 SEP 2015 - H1 chart:
Here, we continue to hypothesize on the expectation of a decline, first looking for a mechanism of decline - A contracting triangle such as this one is worth pursuing
snapshot


wave-c may be incomplete, so this is probably too mature a stance, but again, the exercise here is to remain ready for a decline, while looking for alternate scenarios that would invalidate a decline - David

26 SEP 2015 - $BTC/Bitstamp:

Tightening the speculative noose around thus 5-point geometry ... We are still considering this as a discreet mechanism of release to the downside ... Condition is for price to remains above currently defined point-c = 235.00 - See M60 chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor
26 SEP 2015 - $BTC / Bitstamp:

Looking at the M15 level, here are internal waves justifying a potential 3-3-3-3-3 completion pattern:

snapshot


As lon as points b and c of the geometry remain unsurpassed, then we have a continued potential for this pattern to finish its last point-e leg.

Point-e can be as simple a 3-wave internal pattern or as complex as its own inner 3-3-3-3-3 triangle.

Another issue with point-e, which is that it could either not touch, touch or slightly cross over its a-c line and still keep the whole triangle geometry valid.

A tricky Elliott Wave pattern, indeed.

David Alcindor
26 SEP 2015 - $BTC / Bitstamp:

A short-coming in point-e could look like this, where the internal A-B-C wave projects a reciprocal symmetry:

snapshot


David Alcindor
... In contrast, an off-shout in point-e relative to its a-c line would define a potential reversal at this illustrated level, corresponding to c = 1.618 x c - See M15 chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor
... Price-adjusted internal waves, as we closely follow the last internal of point-e relative to the entire triangle geometry:

snapshot


As we mentioned earlier, this triangle wuld become invalidated if price were to surpass point-c at this time.

Yet, a 1.618 projection using the height of wave-A of this last wave-e leg places a potential target right at 234.96, just two decimal points below the level of point-c, thus maintaining this scenario valid - David Alcindor
... The lower level that would invalidate the triangle, if breached, is 233.37, as shown in the same $BTCUSD/M15 chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor

======================


David Alcindor
Reply
27 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Following is a continuation of the frame-by-frame demonstration of an Elliott Wave geometry use: The Triangle - Quite tedious, but the result seems to hold quite well:


======================
(...cont'd ... )

Price is challenging the lower value wher point-d resides ($233.37), and any breach below this level should bring about three possibilities:

1 - There is another geometry underway other than this triangle - In such case, we would need to let the whole story unfold and stay put.

2 - A triangle of a different b-d Line slope is pending - Note that the b-d Line can be all the way flat, where b = d. This is called a "Barrier Triangle", defined specifically by these two equalized points.

Another triangle would be an Expanding triangle, which retains the 3-3-3-3-3, but the b-d Line would diverge away from the a-c Line, calling into question the way we defined the a-c Line all along

3 - A bearish impulse has started, and point-e was defined at the last $234.06 spike, which would correspond to a lower high, and thus form a bearish impulse wave-1 and a corrective wave-2 of a large impulse system.

Here is where price rests at this minute:

snapshot


David Alcindor
... Note the change of point-d's position, based on the nadir carved out a few bars back.

Price has since bounced, and this is now a new wave count starting for point-e, the conclusion of which is sought to confirm the completion of the entire triangle.

Using the same point-a x 1.618 extension, which is a standard estimate to place point-e, we are now contemplating a possible top at 234.53, which rests near the 1-c Line of the triangle.

I have also marked the 233.00 level, corresponding to point-b of the same triangle, which is the level I would contemplate entering a short - This is all educational, so do the due diligence on your own, of course.

snapshot


David Alcindor
.. On the same educational elan, here is where a Elliott Wave practitioner might consider defining a target (232.11), corresponding to the height of the triangle's point-a, reported back off to the expected point-e of that same triangle - It may not be resting right at that expected point-e level, but the height should remain the same:

snapshot


David Alcindor
... For some reason, the data is getting scant and far fewer in between, even at lower timeframes, so this is all guess work at this time.

I would look for points b and c as directional guidelines, so that if one is breached, then it would probably point to the direction of market's intention.

Hope these have been interesting step-by-step, highlighting the issues and constant surveillance wave count requires.

Personally, I have the time and passionate interest to delve into all of the details required to complete an analysis, but admittedly, this is quite demanding in terms of time and cogitative power.

snapshot


David Alcindor

... And finally, here is an apparent completion of the triangle:

snapshot


What you are seeking at this point is a THREE-step process, if you want to play it safe, in terms of obtaining a validation signal from the market:

1 - First, wait for a confirmation of a bearish impulse to the DOWN-side;

2 - Second, see that a correction occurs, where price will NOT except the origin of the bearish impulse;

3 - Finally, as the correction completes and price action resumes to the downside, then enter in the direction of the bearish impulse, right below the low formed by the initial bearish impulse. This trigger would likely send this 3rd wave down by way of its impulsive nature.

snapshot


In this chart, I have defined the nadir of the recent bars as Point-1, representing a possible bearish impulse. Yet, we do not have a clear correction activity for which point-2 would be define and aid in deciphering a signal level of point-1.

In such an unclear circumstance, I would recommend using point-b as a more prudent and conservative level of short entry - Again, this is an educational series of charts, and not a trading advice - David Alcindor
$BTC / Bitstamp:

And so it goes, moving birskly to the downside following completion of the geometry:

snapshot


Missing here is a correction to the upside, with point-e of the triangle acting as the sine qua non backstop ... In any case, bears are back.

David Alcindor

======================

Have a fantastic Sunday.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Quick correction - Point-1 is speculatively placed at the nadir of this recent decline as we wait for the development of a correction to the UP-side. This should not reach above the level of point-e, lest it invalidates the bearish outlook:


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
27 SEP 2015 - Chart Update: 4-Hour chart


Looking at the triangle (black lines in recent price action) from this H4 chart puts the tiny geometry in its seemingly insignificant context. Still, the exercise was to look for added bearish versus bullish clues, and defining a mechanism by which price would either rally or decline. The directional bias was already defined by the bearish targets, but these are expressed by a completely independent, "hermetic" method that has no interest in the underlying market.

Overall, the market remains under bearish pressure - Even a counter-rally, which could not be completely excluded, would still be expected to remain limited, as there is simply no explicit or discreet sign by which bulls can be heard or seen for the time being.


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

Thank you for this great analysis and discussion. I learn a lot :-) What about this Wolve Wave on the 1 hour, that speaks for more upside potential? Now we are pointing a point 4, see also the internal Geo.
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
a year ago
Hello eYou1 - Impressive and excellent job on picking both the Wolfe Wave and Geo combo out!

Yes, this is definitely likely to impact price for sure.

I am not sure about the Geo having reached a 5'', if you look at the slope of the 2-4 originating from Point-1, but I agree that the rise of priceis so great relative to the Geo, that it might behave as it it ever did reach a 5'' - Here is the composite image, thanks to your hawk eyes detection of it all:

Definitely at a cross-road:

snapshot



David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
As you have them drawn, I think that this timeframe is very much likely to fake the bulls in this market out - Looking at your Wolfe Wave and Geo, and using their own 2-4 Lines, which they share, this would mean that this 3-5' Line is likely to be acting as a backstop against price, if and only if bulls did eventually wage a bloody, uphill and last advance against bears.

As is, the larger Geo has a Point-4 that can still be moved to the upside, as long as the 1-3 Line parallel, off of Point-2 (not shown in the chart in above chart, but shown in the chart below) is not breached.

However, as shown before, there is a good chance that the 1.618-Fibonacci extension marks the extent to which price could rise, and if the bears are too dominant, they might signal that strength with even a 1.414-Fib reversal signals, which is what they often do in strong reversal markets.

snapshot



Overall, at this level of timeframe, I would MOST DEFINITELY step out of the brawl, as bulls and bear are about to wave a blood murk of a "Hamburger Hill" battle, for sure.

Best,


David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
@eYou1 - I have made a correction on the Geo you drew (RED in the chart I posted so far) - It lacked a Point-4 validation, hence not a Geo as drawn initially. I am posting below a correction, which removes the shared 2-4 Line.

Still, I agree with you that although the 2-4 Line is too steep to be validated physically as a 5'', this price excursion would most likely define that price as 5'', just as you had marked it. This would support a Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 completion, which is the level that was just reached at the time you posted your chart - Here is the chart with the correction on the smaller Geo:

snapshot


Again, great pick up on these combo ... What out for that RSI's trendline as well, as this potential Up-side scenario may have a clue as to its timing via this discreet validation within the RSI.

Best,


David
+2 Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

Thank you for the compliment. I'm a student of all these concepts, which are new for me. You are a great teacher, and for all that you contribute to this community I would like to give you a big thumps up.
You offer so much to learn from, for people who want to see it. Thank you for your time and dedication.

Back to your chart.

Originally, I posted a chart above with the idea that price could rise to the 255-260 area. I still think that is possible. The reason is that I see a somewhat different Elliot Wave count, compared to your chart.
Also here, I'm a student of Elliot Wave and only post this chart as an alternative idea. So, I could be completely wrong and be humble in this respect.

I have a different count for the 2-3 leg: not 1-2-3-4-5 but a-b-c. For your flat correction (leg 3-4) I would like to give the following alternative:
w-x-y, where your point A is w, your point B is "x" and we are in the process of forming "y" which takes out the 246.24 high, point 2 in your chart. Whether point Y will reach to 255-260 needs to be seen, it could also end at 246-250.

This gives the following chart.

snapshot


I can see the whole pattern from the 198.12 low as a big W-X-Y. When this W-X-Y ends we get a final leg down to your targets in the area of 190-174. That will end the correction from the 317.99 high in a big zig-zag.

In this count from an Elliot Wave perspective we don't take out the 152.40 low from January 2015. The whole pattern from January 2015 to the end of 2015 is part of a bigger A-B-C pattern.

See the following chart:

snapshot


Again, I could be wrong 100%, but then at least I have posted this idea for the disccusion and to learn from.

Have a nice day.

Rgds.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
a year ago
@eYou1 - I really like this alternate argument, as it definitely offers a contingency to any bearish bias that the Model may impose on my chart - Very well developed, much appreciated. Please, keep posting relevant price action that further support your thesis, so that these chart can be compared consecutively.

Great post. Thanks!


David
+1 Reply
BTCMarket PRO eYou1
a year ago
Nice charts @eYou1, I can see why there is a lot of support in this region but it's looking like anything below 232 opens the door for low 220's imo. Keep up the good work love coming here and seeing all the ideas.
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BTCMarket
a year ago
Thank you @Wolfe - Feel free to post ideas, especially ones that support rallies (please, no opinions - Simply ideas with objective data, such as Fibonacci clusters, Elliott Wave patterns and supportive evidence with indicators).

@eYou1 - If you look at the chart that @Wolfe just posted above, a large correction is possible, in the form of a running flat to the Up-side (with 3-3-5 internals) but it would require that the current price action develops even a first bullish impulse - As it is right now in your chart, at 233.58, this price action has already penetrated into the price territory of what could have acted as that first bullish impulse where the candle rose from 224.xx to 234.00.

There is a lot of painting and repainting to do with Elliott Wave analysis, which can be quite tedious - Again, feel free to post objective ideas here. I know that opinions abound, and I tend to not share mine - I simply read the Predictive/Forecasting Model, as I have rarely had reason over its own data. However, this is not a fool-proof Model, and any rationale contrarian to its target is what I am very much interested in.

Following is the composite of H4 and DAILY/Weekly targets issues over two different sessions, which the Predictive/Forecasting Model has defined. I have also ascribed Elliott Wave plots to justify possible correlations with the Model. Note that I have also written in a possible triangle, which @eYou1 had posted originally (small BLUE geometry in the recent price action), as well as a contrarian reciprocal ab = cd symmetry (purple lines in the same vicinity as the BLUE geometry), itself corroborating with a proximal Model-based target.

Overall, this chart contains most of the ideas discussed recently, IMO.

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
a year ago
Here is some background where I can see further upside potential.

Maybe David can comment on whether this is a valid Wolve Wave pattern or not, that could give arguments to a further rise to above 246.26 (to 246-250 area or even higher to 255-260, as I posted initially, based on the 4 hour chart).

We need to complete the Wolve Wave on the left (testing 1-4 line).

snapshot
+2 Reply
eYou1 eYou1
a year ago
Look how we are painting an internal structure within a larger pattern. I see big similarities with the rise from the 219 low to 317 high (June-July 2015).

snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
a year ago
Hi eYou1 - This is great.

Following is the DAILY chart, putting things in perspective a bit:
snapshot



Now, looking at the 4-hou chart, here is where we are at this time:
snapshot



A Fibonacci scale suggest that we are heading towards the 0.786 to 0.886 range:
snapshot



The pattern trader might see a Gartley, short of the 0.886 handle, bringing price along the 2-4 Line off of Point-3 for a 5' validation:
snapshot



Overall, a reasonable expectation would be a price attainment range of 239.95 to 242.40, IMO.


David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - The thin dashed line that runs atop the 4-Hour chart represents a tolerance line, which is nothing else than that projection of the larger Geo's 1-3 Line (with BLUE plots) off of Point-2. If breached, it would simply render the entire Geo invalid:


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
BitProf 4xForecaster
a year ago
Would you say that the tolerance line has been breached? Kinda hard to tell.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BitProf
a year ago
Hello @BitProf - Yes, I just posted that it reached that TL ... price being help to/under it for now:


snapshot



I would look for internal strength indication, such as RSI or any other indicator, for clues ... I like to use RSI ... See its channel:


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
30 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


$BTCUSD / #bitstamp - Daily Chart:
snapshot



$BTCUSD / #bitstamp - 4-Hour Chart:
snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

Thank you for the update. (Your point 4 in blue should be placed in the area of your purple arrow, I think?)

How do you see the probability of a further rise, due to the internal Geo/WW? The leg 3-4 of the smaller GEO in red seems finished (also divergence in rsi), and has a clear zigzag. Former resistance became support (blue horizontal level of 235).

snapshot
+1 Reply
eYou1 eYou1
a year ago
Leg 5 in development, I think. See the internal structure in blue.

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
a year ago
Hello @eYou1 - Yes, thank you about the Point-4 correction now that price has carved out a higher high.

I appears that a higher high atop recent high is still possible, answering to the 1.618-Fib that remains pending, although a reversal off of 1.414 typically signals an aggressive counter-trend in the work. Here, we would need to see price breaking below the zig-zag nadir (wave-a, which also corresponds well with the smaller GREEN geometry's 2-4 Line) to expect further decline. I would say that the market is shopping for stop-losses by completing a more complex correction anticipated by the geometries' outlines.


snapshot


Also, your 1-4 Line in you chart (following below) could offer a less probable level of attainment somewhere along its length:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Also, the divergence which you posted in RSI is a Positive Divergence, a rarer phenomenon supporting a limited rallying - David
+2 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi, David, thank you for the feedback. I appreciate it.
Reply
MoonTrader 4xForecaster
a year ago
Still bearish overall? How long do you think this rally might go on, or do you think this could actually be a reversal in the making?
+1 Reply
sprksz MoonTrader
a year ago
see above
+1 Reply
30 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / tech-Note / Reply:


Hello @MoonTrader - Last time I called a top and reversal, I believe it was for the 242.42 handle - Since then, price has remained subdued to that level and has not come even close yet.

snapshot


While a rallying to that level, and perhaps a bit higher remains possible, I do not believe that this would the segment of the chart responsible for mounting a reversal just yet. Looking simply at the current wave count, it appears that we are completing the wave-c of A (yes, it appears that we are only at the beginning of a long, tiring correction), assuming that the current correction is a 3-3-5 structure, where each of the 3's are expressed as a-b-c for each wave-A and wave-B, whereas the C wave would represent a swift rallying.

Depending whether wave-B ends at, before or beyond the origin level of Point-A will determine how far UP wave-C will be able to go (i.e.: whether 1) the current deployment of this geometry is expressed as Regular Flat, where C will end-up close to where wave-A ended, ... 2) an Expanded Flat where wave-B falls below the level of A's origin and this propels C to a level significantly higher than current termination of A, ... 3) or B also falls below the level of A's origin, but sends a C below the termination level of A, which would express a Running Flat.

KEY POINT = If B reverses from above the origination point of A, then there is a limited level which C can attain ... If B falls below, then a rally will certainly occur and end either sides of A's termination,

OVERALL = If this is a Flat, which it appears to be for the time being, then any rally, which ever shape or form, will be limited, and price will reverse course to lower-lows.

snapshot


Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
25 SEP 2015 - Opinion:

Here is the ONLY opinion I would express on bitcoin ... Just my thoughts:

First of all, in reference to the technical comments I jut posted,if you guys have something different, based on good objective data (i.e.: indicators, fundamentals, or some alternate wave count, by all means, feel free to post those things. I am NOT an Elliotician.

Second, so that this remains as clear as possible, I have never, do not and perhaps will not be trading bitcoins ... Well, the future is always proving me wrong, but by intention, I mean it. When I joined the TradingView community as a moderator (not a moderator anymore, though), I posted lots of charts on Bitcoin. Besides calling a 200 handle when it was 600 or so got me lots of insults, but I simply have no stake in this, except my reputation as a technician. In sum, I have no emotional or financial stake, nor do I have any opinion what-so-ever - All that I post in terms of target is a simple "cut and paste" action from a completely autonomous Predictive/Forecasting Model".

Simply put, it does not get any more objective than this. The fact, just the facts, and nothing but the facts ... Yes, I have read a book-on-tape about bitcoin, and i find this ever decreasing production and ever more difficult to mine system really really really cool, and this is what keeps me at the helm of my diggy boat in this vast and complex ocean of technical possibilities.

The Predictive/Forecasting Model has been my star compass, and it has rarely left me astray. Other winds, such as blown off from opinion, intuitions and even fundamental breezes have kept me off course most of the trajectory so far.

Best,


David Alcindor
+8 Reply
Diabolicus 4xForecaster
a year ago
As always, your insights and comments are very much appreciated. Being long-term bullish on bitcoin (it will either grow much further the coming years or completely fail, there is not much in between), your objective (bearish) point of view helps keep me on my toes, take off my bull-glasses once in a while and reminds me to take downside with reasonable stop loss into consideration as well.
Keep floating in your diggy boat, plz ;-)
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Diabolicus
a year ago
Hello @Diabolicus, much appreciated your sharing your thoughts on this. Being objective takes discipline and constant battle with the senses, as each tick to the right of the chart is a step into the unknown, while we tend to naturally see things grow, not degenerate, especially when they are new, promising and unlike nothing else that ever existed before, which is what bitcoin promises to be.

Once it grows, the Model may have some lag in determining when that moment is, but as in nature, it's a process, and it needs a well articulated series of event to differentiate growth from senescence, as this occurs, it will likely come with the pain of uncertainty in me, as I seek to be right relative to the group, whereas the Model has no such social or egocentric interest in being either right or wrong. It simply exists on its own nature of telling, not "taling".

But once I see it convert to the bull side, I will certainly share that signal.

Again, much appreciate your sharing your thoughts.


David
+2 Reply
02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price is hanging on to the inner geometry like a kid resisting bedtime. Predictive/Forecasting Model remains firm on forecast "curfew hours":


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
a year ago
As an exercise to look for some bullish clues, I come up with this...

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
a year ago
@eYou1 - It looks more like a convergence.

In any case, I would be careful about bullish/bearish convergences - The author of the RSI (Welles Wilder) had distinguished these divergences wit what he called positive or negative divergences. In the case of the BULLISH divergence as you have defined in the field, according to him, they are very numerous and typically associated with BEARISH trending price action. It is the repetition of these divergences that eventually lead to a reversal that is expected.

In contrast, POSITIVE divergences (some call it "slingshot") is where the RSI makes a lower-ow against a higher-high in price. These are rare and high-quality divergences in the sense that they are more consistent with the expectation of a rise in price.

An author that speaks about these is John Hayden (Google: "John + Hayden + RSI", opends this link: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB4QFjAAahUKEwjrn_yrh6TIAhXLiw0KHTs2CsA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forexfactory.com%2Fattachment.php%3Fattachmentid%3D1303219&usg=AFQjCNGauJTkdpXo4zbkxSV2SA1V5ZuYLw&cad=rja ), where he also goes at great length about this very important, but too often ignored or perhaps unknown, differentiation.


David
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you, David, for the source. I'm going to study the work of Hayden.

I have two questions:

1) What about the bullish WW/Geo, as outlined? Do you think that is a valid one?

2) And if it is a valid WW/Geo, is there some rule you apply when balancing different WW/Geo's? In this case, you have your WW/Geo as visualized in your chart, where we go down from here to your targets in the area 210-214, and secondly, I posted a more bullish WW/GEO where we rise first to above 246 and go down after that to your targets. I ask this, because you rely in your analysis on the Elliot Wave Flat pattern, where in my case I apply a w-x-y structure (ending diagional), see the charts in this thread. I understand that these WW/Geo's are only secondary and your Model comes first, but I'm curious and interested why you don't prefer the scenario of a rise to above 246 first.

Thank you for your analysis and time. I appreciate it.

Have a nice day.
+1 Reply
eYou1 eYou
a year ago
ADDENDUM - Based on the latest price action, here is the idea that the leg 3-4 of the larger WW/Geo is not finished yet. We are in the process of forming point 4.

snapshot
Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
a year ago
Hello @eYou1 - Sorry for this delayed reply ... Long week-end ... Catching up on threads.

You asked: " I understand that these WW/Geo's are only secondary and your Model comes first, but I'm curious and interested why you don't prefer the scenario of a rise to above 246 first. "

Well, I don't really trade by preference. I simply blindly follow the Model. If the model tells me up and my instinct tell me down, I have learned through too many losing contradictions to simply follow the Model, be it right or wrong ... Turns out that it has been right too often, and the only way to make money in trading is to find a system that works more often than not, and more often than thought.

The Geo/WW have been, and remain, powerful geometries with or without the Model, and can work with or against the Model in the shortest moves without contradicting the Model's longer-term forecast.

Hence, a price action that does not break the outline of the Wolfe Wave or Geo might still allow price to move against the Model in the most immediate time ... It can even invalidate the entire geometries, and still reverse back to complete the target defined by the Model.

So, the geometries are used simply to give a visual rationale to the most immediate price action. However, it can still invalidate the geometries and eventually allow price to complete the forecast set out by the Model in the first place.

I hope this makes sense.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you, David, that makes sense. Thank you for clarifying this!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
a year ago
Hello @eYou - Incidentally, price just reached the outer-most limit of both geometries (thin PINK line) - If it crosses beyond that, both geometries are null and void. However, as discussed before, this may not change the forecast:

snapshot



David
+2 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
I agree, David, about the targets. See our discussion, charts and analysis above (end of September, also the daily chart). If there is still room for some up, I don't expect much. Thank you for your update. I appreciate it.
+2 Reply
eYou eYou
a year ago
Just hit 247 on Bitstamp.
+1 Reply
eYou1 eYou
a year ago
Hello David,

Is this WW/GEO a viable alternative, a rise to 255-260, now we have a higher high, before we go to your targets? On the daily there is further room for upside.

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
a year ago
Hello @eYou1 - Yes, there is:

1 - Reiprocity in 1-2 Leg
2 - Complexity in 2-3 Leg
3 - foreseeable support via potential ab = cd in 3-4 Leg

Nice RSI channeling the move as well.


David
+1 Reply
G_Man eYou1
a year ago
How bout we take the 2nd low after your point 2 and draw the up slope from there? that seems more bitcoin-esque to me ;) then we can reach higher targets with a less significant correction
+1 Reply
eYou1 G_Man
a year ago
I can see two possibilities. A retrace back to 240 area, based on the smaller WW/Geo (in red), and a retrace back to 236 area based on larger WW/Geo (in black) and 50% retracement. Let's see how it develops.

snapshot
+1 Reply
06 OCT 2015 - Chart update / Tech-Note:


Price has escalated but remains subdued to the same overhead resistance levels, leaving the bearish outlook unchanged.

Here are the line-up of 50% resistance levels, which we had described last month as indicative of a lack of bullish strength, as all that price is able to muster is a 50% rallying of the prior swing, followed by a subsequent decline - Here are the levels that have proven hard to overcome to bulls:

First, there is the first 50% range that was never overcome:
snapshot



Then, there is this smaller level, which itself remains unchallenged:
snapshot



OVERALL, this level is the slipperiest slope for bulls to overcome, and thus far, they have not succeeded:
snapshot


What bulls are facing as their hardest task is the range that is currently being fought: If you recall, this was the 242.42 overhead target that the Predictive/Forecasting Model had defined on 05 SEP 2015, and now remains to be challenged - The real range is 242.42 / 247.56:
snapshot



If you look at the current geometry, a 5-prime (5') level just got defined, right in line with the 50% level just discussed above - See chart below:
snapshot


Yes, bulls can still stab their way to incremental heights, but at this point, we are talking about shedding more blood for less inch of terrain gained, whereby the risks are starting to outweigh the benefits, in terms of probability.

In terms of wave count, it would take a clear motive wave, followed by a correction with a higher-low, and a break above that new impulse to confirm a reversal - This too is missing in the overall (daily/weekly) picture. All we are dealing with is a correction upon a correction, all of which belongs to larger bearish impulse. So, what exactly follows a rallying correction in the midst of a large impulse move? ... You got it ... A completion of the bearish impulse ... It is this 5th wave which I would be waiting for.

Best,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - Per Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, 5' reversal should aim for price level corresponding to Point-4 - See chart:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
There's quite a bit going on in this chart but essentially what I'm looking at is similar price behaviour as we've seen before. On March 3rd we peaked out at 297.95 came down to 210 then we moved up to 246.57 then down to the low 220's before heading higher and pulling back to the 50% retracement level and making a move towards 300+.

The striking similarity in price action is that all the key levels marked 1-4 have basically been respected. Essentially what I'm looking for now is where price stalls number 4 far right and begins to retrace so I can plot the fib tool looking for that 50% to see if it will indeed respect that level for a potential move higher.

The current 50% circled on the right shouldn't be taken seriously because I still do not know where price will ultimately retrace but I'm assuming it could reach a similar level as we saw at number 4 on the left of the chart close to 248/249.

Just some thoughts here.
snapshot
+1 Reply
BTCMarket PRO BTCMarket
a year ago
Perhaps a slightly cleaner version of my thoughts without trying to litter this thread too much.
snapshot
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BTCMarket
a year ago
Very nice.

David
Reply
timwest PRO
a year ago
It took me a long time to get through many of these posts and exhaustive analysis and demonstration. I wish you could publish a "cliff-note" version for the rest of us! Wow. Great work David! So many forecasts are right on the dime. Very impressive.
+6 Reply
4xForecaster PRO timwest
a year ago
Hi, @timwest - Thank you.

I'd love to find the time to write something about the trading methodology, but I have too many engagements for the moment.

I appreciate your taking interest in it.

David

+6 Reply
11 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Overall, price remains in an Elliott Wave minor correction, tracing out a larger A-B-C pattern as shown in the chart. Internal to this corrective path, the Geo remains in force with overhead resistance carved out at its 5' position. This calls for a proximal high-probability reversal to the price level of Point-4 (Geo's Off-Set Rule #2), however, there has been 5 days of sideways action during which several attempts at breaking that ceiling have repeatedly failed.

On its own, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intact and in force, with bearish target pending. What I have left in the chart is a pending 5th wave impulse that is expected to express the last bearish minor impulse 5 of an intermediate degree bearish impulse.


snapshot



What we are waiting to see occur is a break below Geo's Point-4 in the form of a bearish minor-degree impulse, followed by a minor-degree correction, and a confirmation signal of a bearish intent to break below this first minor-degree bearish impulse, defining a forceful 3rd wave down.

Best,


David Alcindor
+9 Reply
Support can be viewed with a 4hr pitchfork using the 50% line in conjunction with the 50ma and rsi trendline. I don't look for any positions until above 250 or a break and hold below 243.
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BTCMarket
a year ago
Hello @BTCMarket - I am not well versed with the interpretation of a pitchfork. However, if this represented my momental lines (Google: "momental line 4xforecaster Alcindor"), The peak near 235 that defined the forward projection of the top channel never was re-validated, whereas the bottom of the next second parallel corresponds to a failure or price breaking down, which when projected forward offers an overhead resistance that remains unbroken. The net move in terms of momental line interpretation would be that of a correction with internal weakness and probable further decline.

RSI interpretation would also convey the same outcome at this point. Where most people look at bearish divergence, there is instead insufficient market interest at second testing of the price high (i.e.: Price double tops, but RSI fails to carry > 70) ... Which is why I keep on saying that bearish divergence are simply worthless indicators. It is the mathematical interpretation of the RSI value that corresponds to a proportional market interest, especially when compared with a prior price top. Here, you have two price tops (in fact, a double top), whereas RSI posts an internal weakness from 80+ to < 75. This is a bearish signal all on its own ... Not the so called bearish divergence - I mention this in case someone would want to make a case for these erroneous concepts.

I will look into the pitchfork closely and see whether I may be missing something, as i am really not at all adept or familiar with this particular tool.

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
12 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price breaks 2-4 Line floor of Geo; Bulls cede to bears; Bearish forecast intact:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
flibbr 4xForecaster
a year ago
Why are we going to sell down through 9 month support with the halvening coming up ? Makes absolutely no sense what so ever.
+7 Reply
Alekznder flibbr
a year ago
Why argue with someone who is sharing their own proven method? Makes absolutely no sense what so ever.
Reply
WenpingGuo Alekznder
a year ago
please be respectful. no method is flawless. I still think David's map is very reasonable.
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Galvin 4xForecaster
a year ago
Isn't this chart invalid cause price already went to 250? And most likely will go to 260.
+1 Reply
12 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price falls drastically. RSI falls off rising channel ... Speculative pathway shown in RSI would indicate bull abdication: channel lower boundary would offer a support-turned-resistance event as last signal.


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
M4B0X. 4xForecaster
a year ago
Non-biased look is good.

2h cup and handle, also new moon, hence some volatility.
snapshot
+3 Reply
M4B0X. M4B0X.
a year ago
Target hit
+1 Reply
sprksz M4B0X.
a year ago
looks like we're going up,up,up ..
Reply
16 OCT 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


The following commentary is a cut/paste segment of the daily analyses I have posted in the "$BTC | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chatroom, where I do most of my tedious and bring pre-posting analytical work - I decided to post this last segment, as it concludes my stance about what is going on at the retail versus institutional levels, and what the current price action is about the encounter - I appreciate your challenges, your support and commentaries that I have received directly or indirectly along the way. I understand your frustration, especially if you trade at lesser timeframes where most traders get slaughtered (typically at the retail M15 to H1 levels), but I urge you to look at the total playing field, and look at the levels of the banks and their institutional pawns. Then, and only then will you understand the potential slaughter that could otherwise befall any unsuspecting trader.

The comments I have posted and will continue to post have only one purpose, which is that of keeping you alert of the "other side" of things. I trade for a living and live for trading, but I do not trade any bitcoin. I have done research at several levels of technical analysis, and having a new currency is a treat for guys like me, whose only interest is to break, smash and incinerate my very own Predictive/Forecasting Model, which has held well over the years. However, the failure of such Model at smaller timeframe bears more threats to the "small-time" trader than it would to other larger ones, as it only verifies what it is designed to do, which is to define which of the community of traders remains in charge. As explained in the following analysis, failure of smaller frames only bodes well to larger frame players, as it only reinforces a false sense of market reversal, fumed by greed, hope and perhaps a lack of technical acumen among the more Junior players (trust me, I was one of that slapped-around trader for many years too, having started back in 1997).

Enough rambling, here is the cut/past analysis from the "$BTC | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chatroom:

=========================================================
16 OCT 2015 - Chart Update: As we continue to decipher any sign of reversal price continues to climb its corrective path, likely to complete a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, as shown in the following 4-hour chart:

snapshot


Needles to say that the Geo got overrun. I decided to track price action using a larger geometry, and see whether it will impose any of its resistance.

The more the geometry is wrong, the more the market is establishing a bullish basis.


The real problem here is not that the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains bearish. It's simply that the Elliott Wave count remains at a stage of correction, as marked by this all-encompasing reciprocal ab = cd.

This defines an en that comes right in line with the one-lesser degree Primary wave-2 completion, which is likely to impose its own resistance - That level is valued at $271.42.

I understand that many traders are dwelling at the M15 to H1 level, and perceive this rally as a likely contender for a market reversal, but such event cannot occur without a specific and well defined set of circumstance, which are characterized by first an impulse, second a higher-low correction, and finally a signal at the break of that impulse's top.

At this point, we remain without even that initial impulsive move ... This is correction, after correction, followed by more correction.

Again, not my opinion. Just working at deciphering what's really happening in the price action.
OVERALL: Watch the following 3 major points:

1 - $271.41 - Likely to impose its Elliott Wave's based resistance. Typically, the 4th wave termination level of one prior degree imposes this sort of resistance, but once a wave-2 is included, it is likely to be associated with significant push-back.

2 - The Geo's 1-3 Line, which just defined its Point-5 - It would take added bull strength to reach the 5-prime level, as it rests above the 271.42 mark.

3 - The Elliott Wave count has traced a correction that fills its minor degree requirement. However, the next-degree up remains in an intermediate corrective wave (4). This means that the entire formation is missing a motive wave intermediate (5).

I really love following this particular currency, as it offers a challenge like no other asset. However, the more I study and analyze it, the more it seems to fall in the category of institutionally-controlled asset. I say only because all other retail-level timeframes are not able to provide any reliable or consistent result relative to the analysis, as it proves me wrong every step of the way within the M5, M15 and H1 timeframes - Yet, these are retail-level frames, where the Predictive/Forecasting Model can usually decipher between the two
However, once it stops showing this ability to decipher between the retail and the institutional plays, this only means one thing: The price moves at the scale of institutional players, and there is nothing that the retail-side can do to influence this asset. Again, I can only say this because there is a level that the Predictive/Forecasting Model defines for itself as a "Watch Line", or defined as "WL" in all of the analyses I do. And once this line is broken, it demands that the analysis be pushed and stayed at the next level up times 4.

This means that a WL validation in M14 demands 4 times the step-back in timeframes, or M15 x 4 = H1. Similarly, H1 failure occurring at the WL validation will demand H1 x 4 = H4 level - The H4 is the level that has remained resilient so far.

I have not posted any of these WL, as I typically keep them to myself, so as not to clutter the smaller timeframes too much. Nonetheless, there is no more viable M5, M15, and H1 level that would offer any reliable analysis as far as the Predictive/Forecasting Model is concerned.

So, until either price breaks the WL in the H4, or meets the new condition of a bullish impulse, I will keep the analyses at this H4 level for the time being.

snapshot


Have a fantastic week-end!

David Alcindor
=========================================================

Again, I very much appreciate your challenging comments and injections. I do not gain any thing from these analyses, as I have no commercial interest involving bitcoin, no website to take you away or demand your payment, or any such mercantile imposition I make upon you. This is all objective, unbiased analysis using the technical tools I live off of - But I do stand to lose your trust and respect in the total field of technical analysis, which is really my most fundamental interest, making you, the retail trader a better equipped and self-educated individual in the asymmetrical warfare waged against institutional players, who clearly will always have the upper hand.
+10 Reply
16 OCT 2015 - NEWS:

"Capital Controls Blowback? Bitcoin Surges Back To Pre-China-Currency Wars Levels"
- Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-16/capital-controls-blowback-bitcoin-surges-back-pre-china-currency-wars-levels


David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Here is an excellent article, in Bloomberg no less, heralding the coming of "blockchain":

Blythe Masters Tells Banks the Blockchain Changes Everything
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-09-01/blythe-masters-tells-banks-the-blockchain-changes-everything

- it simply would transform the current institutional processing of money transfer using the same principle as the Bitcoin payment process. This is NOT to say that the banks are moving on to bicoin, though. But, it does bring up this issue of institutional migration towards potentially having to influence the current bitcoin market - I express this as a concern, as I continue to analyze $BTC and see no validation of the Predictive/Forecasting Model at the timeframe levels that are relevant to day-to-day traders activities (i.e.: M5, M15, H1 timeframes). However, there is significant indication that at the institutional levels (i.e.: H4 on up), the analyses remain intact, suggesting that larger players have taken control of the field. For now.

--------------------------------------
Following are a few interesting quotes from that Bloomberg article:

“You should be taking this technology as seriously as you should have been taking the development of the Internet in the early 1990s,” Masters, a lithe 46-year-old Englishwoman with auburn hair and the proper diction of the Home Counties, explains to the rapt audience. “It’s analogous to e-mail for money.”


The Bank of England, in a report earlier this year, calls it the “first attempt at an Internet of finance,” while the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hails it as a “stroke of genius.” In a June white paper, the World Economic Forum says, “The blockchain protocol threatens to disintermediate almost every process in financial services.”


At a recent blockchain confab in London’s hip East End, the host asked if there were any bankers in the room. More than half the audience members, all dressed in suits, raised their hands.


Masters is betting that the blockchain, the breakthrough that permits people to buy and sell bitcoins without the need for an intermediary, can be used to streamline all manner of financial transactions.


Barclays, Goldman Sachs, the New York Stock Exchange, and Santander are backing cryptocurrency ventures.


“The blockchain is going to bring levels of efficiency to the financial markets that we’ve never seen before,” says Nasdaq CEO Bob Greifeld.


Masters plans to offer banks and other financial players both options: Digital Asset is creating an off-the-shelf private blockchain product and developing ways to connect its customers to the existing bitcoin system.


“If you brought up bitcoin with bankers 12 months ago, you’d lose their attention immediately,” Bussmann says. “Now, everyone sees this as a critical topic. I know of more than 100 firms that are trying to make the blockchain more scalable, more secure, to make the one that everybody will use. There’s a race on out there.” - Oliver Bussmann, the chief information officer at UBS.


Jon Matonis, a founding director of the Bitcoin Foundation, a Washington group that promotes the cryptocurrency, says a private blockchain run by banks could end up as just “another cartel” and function as poorly as the payments consortium.
-------------------------------------
Source: "Blythe Masters Tells Banks the Blockchain Changes Everything"
- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-09-01/blythe-masters-tells-banks-the-blockchain-changes-everything


Just as with any large corporate world, if the rules don't make sense at your level of existence, it's likely because they have been created by people upstairs that make these rules for people downstairs. It's not for societal sake, but for control sake. Similarly, the Predictive/Forecasting Model detects rule failures whenever price hits its "WL" line, and immediately prompts analyses to be abandoned at that timeframe level where failure occurred and move on up to the next level of timeframe, where the control occurs.

If price action ceases to make sense at your timeframe level of trading, it's probably because you are not in control of this timeframe understanding anymore.


---------------------------------
Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.
- Warren Buffett in a letter he sent to the shareholders of his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway Inc., February 29, 1988
---------------------------------


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Alekznder 4xForecaster
a year ago
What do you make of the increased wash-trading on chinese exchanges? Seems like someone is painting a picture. Any thoughts or good links on the phenomenon?
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS Alekznder
a year ago
imo its another ponzi pump n dump from the same peeps who did the LTC ponzi pump to 300. their bots patterns are clearly painting the picture here again.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
a year ago
Hello @EliX - What data are you using to compare this? Just curious to see whether I can break this down and look at the details. I'm really curious whether there is going to be much more institutional players delving into this, considering the mediatic attention it is getting. But here too, once the media/banks are into pumping something, you have to wonder whether that'd be a possibility - I'd say Yes, IMHO.

David
Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David, if you have a look at the LTCUSD pair, or the LTCBTC pair, probably the BTCE exhange being the most liquid (I could be wrong), and have a look at July, you'll see a pretty extreme bull run.

The general consensus is that this was orchestrated by a group. The last BTC rise to 315 was almost concurrent, and there were some shifty moments during that rise that could well have been large profits from the LTC run moving straight into BTC for the last gasp and followed soon after by a very violent drop. All of this is surrounded by a culture of frequent and cyclical, orchestrated "alt coin" "pump and dumps" (although I've since been told that a pump and dump is a terminology that bitcoiners use wrongly all the time). You might be interested in the alt coin scene just for fun, although I couldn't recommend you where to start with regards to exchanges. As for the evidence, I'm not a good source, but it's common knowledge/folklore in the cryptocurrency world. More likely than banks, we're looking at a hybrid of financially minded computer guys - "fintech", some who would have mined the coins themselves in the early days, amassed large fortunes during the previous btc and ltc bulls runs, and aquired knowledge and trading skills in the recent years, while working in groups or syndicates on this sort of stuff. Some of the other guys in the bitcoin chatroom will know more than me, but this is my general understanding.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
a year ago
Excellent - Thank you @G_Man.

D.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Alekznder
a year ago
Hello @Alekznder - I am not sure what it is that you are calling "wash-trading" - Do you have a link for me to look at, by chance?

David
Reply
Alekznder 4xForecaster
a year ago
The 15m okcoin spot price shows the wash-trading perfectly. Zoom out to 1wk and its looks like increased volume after a retest of downtrend break https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/btccny
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Alekznder
a year ago
Great site, BTW - D.
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
a year ago
What he means by wash trading is based on the idea that the chinese exchanges, or any exchange that offers trading without fees, allows for massive increases in volume at little cost to the parties buying and selling the coins. This would for example allow exchanges to fake their volume, in order to look more popular than they are. It would also allow a couple or more accounts to trade between themselves in order to move the price in certain ways. Considering the unregulated nature of the space, it's highly probable. Again - guys with better understanding that me will have looked at and analysed the behaviour (some quite rigorously) on these exchanges, and it's again commons knowledge/folklore in bitcoinland. I can't remember any links off hand I've seen about this, but reddit and bitcointalk are good sources of this sort of speculation.
+2 Reply
G_Man G_Man
a year ago
one source for alt coin pairs:
Reply
G_Man G_Man
a year ago
https://www.cryptsy.com/
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
a year ago
Now, that's cool.

D.
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
a year ago
there are an infinite number of pairs I'm sure by now :)

btce is one of the oldest exchanges that also deals in litecoins and other alts as well as btcusd, you can chart them on TV, but not for all the alts.
+1 Reply
Alekznder 4xForecaster
a year ago
Watching 1min okcoin chart is like watching HFT action in slow motion. You will see 2000BTC asks/buys placed and eaten with milliseconds, while volume the last hour was minimal. ( https://twitter.com/BTCVIX/status/652179059263307776 ) You will see spoofing, liquidity pull etc. Interesting stuff, especially if new players are entering the scene with deeper pockets.

Cheers
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Alekznder
a year ago
Yes, totally see that HFT analogy.

D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
a year ago
Thank you for the clarification, @G_Man - makes perfect sense. So, sort of like the pinksheets of the bitcoin on that market?

David
Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
a year ago
basically yes, although there is an idealistic quest to find a crypto coin that is better than bitcoin - most end up being another pump and dump opportunity.

litecoin has often been called the silver to bitcoins gold, but that's just an analogy. Litecoin is probably just the first and luckiest alt coins that got enough attention to have a larger market cap than the others.

lots of info will be in the alt coin section here - https://bitcointalk.org/ - along with the trolls and the arguments :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
a year ago
Now, this analogy of Gold vs. Silver between BTC and LTC is remarkable, as I was looking at this potential comparison some time ago - Every market needs a base of reference, and it appears that LTC might offer this to BTC, the way $XAG offers directional confirmation of $Gold, although there are also other laggards contenders, such as $XPT that offers a similar reference.

I have not looked at my older LTCUSD and LTC/BTC charts lately, but I will definitely take a look at that and your links.

Thank you!


David
Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
a year ago
Yeah it's funny how we like to attach meaning to things in this way. There is definitely some interplay between the 2, but I don't follow the ltc market closely although I have seen some interesting discussions and posts about it.

The LTC July bull run is really out of this world on the charts...

No problem, it's the least I can do considering the valuable detail you share in your posts.

Thanks,

G
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
a year ago
Thank you @G_Man - I'm folding for now - Very much appreciate these links.

David
Reply
pepper_nax 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David. The main forecast still relevant?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO pepper_nax
a year ago
Hello, @pepper_nax - Thank you for your inquiry - I continue to post pre-analyses in the following chatroom - It offers counter-trend ideas and continually look for weakness in the current uptrend.

https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya

In any case, the expectation remains bearish, not just from the Predictive/Forecasting Model (which is best calibrated at the 4-Hour timeframe), but also based on the expectation of Elliott Wave behavior, which is currently tracing out a rally out of a correction. Hence, the expectation here too is a final downward motive wave (Intermediate Wave 5, in parentheses) push. Whether the EW will decline will occur is a matter of time, provided that I deciphered the right count, and if it does, whether it coincides with the Predictive/Forecasting Model is yet to be seen.
+4 Reply
pepper_nax 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you for the detailed answer!
+1 Reply
G_Man
a year ago
today a big boy took all available BTC swaps on bitfinex and market shorted, hence the pause. Something like 6k coins.

Depends if the chinese are into shorting yet though, and the bitstamp whales who don't margin trade
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
a year ago
Not surprising.
Reply
You showed both bullish and bearish target. Eventually, one of them going to hit. I remember that you were predicting a price decline before this rally.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO meghal.jani
a year ago
Hello @meghal.jani, and thank you for keeping me honest.

The BULLISH targets were defined on 29 OCT 2015, and were expected to include TG-Hi and TG-Hix (WL is a "Watch Line" that would make any bearish target invalid ... I explain its significance in the $BTC room, and I'd be glad to cut/paste it for you here, for your review).

In contrast, the BEARISH target was defined on 01 NOV, in anticipation that it would represent a significant push-back level, if and once price reversed from the bullish targets.

You are absolutely right to point out that I could very well bracket the entire field with random price levels. However, numerical targets (TG-1, TG-2, ... TG-n) have a purpose to define future R/S levels whenever price move into new territories ("all-time highs or lows"), or to confirm prior R/S levels if and when returning to prior R/S levels.

In contrast, qualitative targets, such as TG-Hi, Hix, Lo, Lox represent highs/lows and extremes thereof, from which price will tend to not just retrace, but reverse. The forecast between qualitative and quantitative targets difference is measured by the probable degree of retracement:

1 - Quantitative Targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ..., TG-n) will tend to cause price to retrace in the Fibonacci order of 0.386 to 0.618,

WHEREAS,

2 - Qualitative Targets (i.e.: TG-Hi, TG-Hix, or TG-Lo TG-Lox) will tend to cause price to retrace in the Fibonacci order of at least 0.618, to include extensions such as 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414, 1.500 and 1.618.

Following is the message I had left on the day of the BULLISH targets, whereas the BEARISH targets had yet to be defined only three days later:
=========================
29 OCT 2015 - $BTC:

Alright. So, M15 dead. H1 dead. H4 dead = Big boys are buying like crazy.

snapshot


Looking at the Model from the UP-side, here are the most relevant and probable levels of resistance, in fading order:

1 - TG-Hi = 332.18 - 29 OCT 2015

2 - TG-Hix = 349.31 - 29 OCT 2015

AND

3 - WL = 372.22 - 29 OCT 2015

In terms of geometry, here is a probable ATHENA:
snapshot


Re-entry into SHORT is not worth, unless price commits to below the TRIGGER LINE:
snapshot


All future analysis will be rendered off of DAILY, until larger players are done flossing their teeth of retail trader remnants.

David
==========================

Again, thank you for keeping me and this community honest.

Sincerely,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Mathijs 4xForecaster
a year ago