ProwdClown
Long

Expecting Reversal to the Upside on the Magenta Vertical Line

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I thought it was time for a new publication. I was getting tired of doing so much scrolling just to post a comment and respond to followers comments.

I chose "Long" on this publication. However, I'm not expecting a reversal to the upside until we reach the Dashed Magenta Vertical Time Line you see in the 1440m (Daily) and 2-Day combined chart.

Here's the chart again to see it better: Also, feel free to click "Make it My Own" icon in bottom right corner below the cover chart.



NOTE: THE 2-DAY TF HAS THE MAGENTA VERTICAL TIME LINE ON JULY 18TH. THE DAILY HAS IT ON JULY 15TH. I'M SAYING REVERSAL IS LIKELY ON THE 15TH.
Comment: 360m (6h) on the left and 720m (12h) on the right. Have a look at the Blue LSMA in the 720m (12h) TF in regard to how close it is to the 20% level. Then you will possibly understand why I'm forecasting July 15th or 16th as the day we find bottom and potentially see a reversal to the upside.

Comment: I added some scribble to the Daily (1440m) and 2-Day charts below to show how the lines within the indicators on both time frames could "potentially" play out:

Comment: I will be giving a rather detailed update in a couple of hours which will be similar to what I've done in previous publications. Meaning, there will be many text bubbles providing explanations of what I'm seeing in the indicators in the 7-Day, 6-Day, 5-Day, 4-Day, 3-Day, 2-Day, Daily (1440m), 1080m, 720m, 480m, 360m and 180m Time Frames. So, that's up to 12 charts with text bubbles that I will begin posting within a couple of hours. Currently spending some time with my wife.
Comment: About to get started on those multiple charts with text bubbles. I thought we should begin with the 2-Week TF before we get into other time frames. More TF's to follow; slow but sure...

; )

Comment: I fixed some chocolate chip muffins and a pot of coffee before continuing. Also decided to make a couple of more notes in the 2-Week TF before continuing with other TF's. Here's the 2-Week once again and others will follow.

Comment: I kept increasing the time frame by one day each time I increased it to TRY to get an idea of WHEN we have a "possibility" for reversal. I ended up increasing to the 19-Day TF. I added some text bubbles with comments. There's no need to panic when reading them. I'm still expecting a move upward very soon. The question is how much and will we resume downward pressure after a short/brief move upward. There will be time to get out during that potentially brief move upward if we believe we will continue downward after a potentially brief move upward. I'm following up with a lower time frame than the 2-Week next.

Here's the 19-Day TF:

Comment: 05/07/2014, 10/08/2014 and 01/15/2015 are the three dates on the 2-Week chart; NOT the 19-Day chart. I want you to compare the movement of the Blue LSMA in the Daily (1440m) TF between those dates and the chart of present date to follow. You'll see there's quite a difference in the Daily between the Red and Purple Vertical Time Lines in 2014 verses present date.

Here's 2014 Daily TF: Pay attention to movement of Blue LSMA...



Here's Present Day Daily TF: Pay attention to the movement of the Blue LSMA. The Blue LSMA goes up to higher levels and remains there longer than in 2014. Also, the amount of time between the Red and Purple lines in 2014 was almost 5 months exactly. Present day period between Red and Purple Vertical time lines was a 3 month period. Maybe you're wondering if we should continue downward two more months to equal those five months. No, not necessarily. Mainly because we should not expect the market to behave exactly the same way twice. Remember, the market is an artist, not a computer. It has a repertoire of basic behavior patterns that it subtly modifies, combines and springs unexpectedly on its audience. A trading market is an entity with a mind of its own.

Comment: bokeb, asked an excellent question 25 minutes ago.

"To play the devil's advocate - when does one stop zooming out? If you're looking to make an oscillator pull back from a maximum position, won't you always be able to achieve this by going to a high enough time frame?

This is a critical part of your analysis that I still don't fully understand - I do expect it's due to my own ignorance, though. Help a brother out?"

My response is down below in followers comments. Check it out...

; )
Comment: Thought I would share one of my two responses to bokeb's excellent question here on the MAIN comments section.

The "issue" we come across is: How do we know which time frame is "high enough?" The problem is; We don't know which one is high enough because Fundamental Analysis is always changing along with Technical Analysis. I wish it did run like a computer where it would be spot on every time. Unfortunately, it's not. Remember: We should not expect the market to behave exactly the same way twice. Remember, the market is an artist, not a computer. It has a repertoire of basic behavior patterns that it subtly modifies, combines and springs unexpectedly on its audience. A trading market is an entity with a mind of its own.
Comment: I took a break before continuing. About to post many more charts with comments within text bubbles. I decided to go ahead and post one or two time frames between 7-Day (Weekly) and 14-Day (2-Week) TF's.

Here's the 12-Day TF:

Comment: 9-Day TF: Will be following up next with 7-Day TF and lower as stated earlier.

Comment: 7-Day TF:



You have probably noticed some of the text bubbles read close to the same thing but not exact. That's to be expected on some of them when changing from on time frame to another.

I want to make a comment before making a suggestion: I've taught telephone technicians how to use their meter to identify and locate troubles since July 27, 1997. I found the following statistics to hold true during the many years I've been teaching.

1. Depending on the individual; we remember approximately 20 to 40 percent of what we READ.

2. Depending on the individual; we remember approximately 40 to 60 percent of what we WRITE DOWN.

3. Depending on the individual; we remember approximately 60 to 80 percent of what we SAY.

Also, studies have shown in order for something to become a HABIT (like riding a bicycle) we need to repeat that particular thing 18 TIMES STRAIGHT (on average/depending on the individual). Meaning, if you have a habit of putting your left leg in your pants leg first before putting your right leg in and you want to change it (reverse it) by putting HABITUALLY putting your right leg in first before the left; then you need to practice it 18 times straight for it to become a HABIT. IF you mess up on the 11th time and put your left leg in first, you have to START OVER AGAIN and do it 18 TIMES STRAIGHT before it becomes a HABIT.

I provided the previous statistics to say this: Please READ OUT LOUD what you see in the text bubbles. Especially, if you are an older person (like myself at age 51). The more you read OUT LOUD - AND - DO SO REPEATEDLY, THE FASTER YOU WILL GRASP A HOLD OF THIS TECHNIQUE with Godmode and Stochastic RSI.

Comment: In this 5-Day TF you may notice I've changed the "colors" of the present day vertical time lines. I changed the Red one to Purple and the Purple has been changed to Blue. If you compare the neon green boxes (history and present day) and pay attention to the Blue LSMA and other lines, you may understand WHY I changed the color of those two vertical time lines to show we may POTENTIALLY be at the beginning of a Spring.

Comment: I doze off for a bit and woke back up. I've been up all night except for that short nap. Here's the 4-Day TF. There's very little difference in the text bubbles. I did edit every text from 5-Day to 4-Day and edited the date the current 4-Day candle began and will end.

The biggest difference in the 4-Day verses the 5-Day TF is the shape of the Blue LSMA. However, you will notice the shape of the Blue LSMA in present day compared to 2015 is very similar. This still suggests this may be the beginning of our Spring. We do not have a clear indication as to whether we will have one more Rally before a Sign of Strength or if we will go straight up from here with a Sign of Strength.

4-Day TF:

Comment: 3-Day TF to allow you to see history in February 2015 to compare with present day:



3-Day TF stretched to see only present day up closer. The charts to follow afterward will not include a glimpse of February 2015. This way I can enlarge the font again to help those who require glasses to read. ; )

Comment: I'm getting VERY sleepy and can barely keep my eyes open. I'll have to finish up later. In the mean time, here's the Daily (1440m) TF without text bubbles. Those of you using the Godmode 3.1 mod with LSMA indicator can go to the Daily and see what I'm referring to when I say, "The Blue LSMA should turn back up from its downward progression around the 50% level.

I must get some sleep.

Later everyone...

; )

Comment: 2-Day TF:

Comment: Daily (1440m) TF:

Comment: 1080m (18h) TF:



720m (12h) TF: NOT much difference between the 1080m and 720m. So, I did not bother to edit the text bubbles at all. They read the same.

Comment: 480m (8h) TF:

Comment: 360m TF:



180m TF:

Comment: July 28, 2018 is the APPROXIMATE date in which I believe we will approach BRIEF exhaustion with a brief dip of approximately 10 to 15 percent drop in price before continuing even further to the upside.

I've included a blue dashed vertical time line in this 2-Day chart to identify the APPROXIMATE date in which a peak arrives before a brief dip. You will also note the blue scribble to depict the POSSIBLE future travel of the Blue LSMA and orange scribble to depict the POSSIBLE future travel of the orange trailing line of the Stochastic RSI.



I'm expecting the peak price before a brief dip will range between $7,465.98 and $7,712.67. Keep in mind, the vertical time line identifying the date of that peak is an estimated approximate date. We could arrive to that peak a few days sooner.

Comment: The price action had a nice "leg up" to our 1.618 "Primary (black) FIB @ $7,465.90. It actually went up to $7,468.31 to be exact.

We may still have more time to move up to the Blue secondary 0.236 FIB @ $7,712.67. I need to check lower and higher time frames to see if it may go up to the Blue Secondary FIB @ 0.236 before a brief dip then a continuation of the bull trend. I will post a chart or two with comments after I check some lower and higher time frames.

Comment: We still have room in this Daily (1440m) TF for the Phoenix ARI to continue up to the 100% level before chance for a brief dip of $450 to $650 from its peak. I'm expecting that peak to be fairly close to my Blue secondary 0.236 FIB at $7,712.67.

Comment: In case you haven't read discussions down below in visitor chat, I reiterated what I've mentioned in the previous BTCUSD publication in regard to the potential for a combination of Accumulation Schematic #1 AND #2.

In the previous publication I mentioned four (4) points must come to pass to "confirm" an Accumulation Schematic #1. Those four (4) points being the following:

1. Not falling below $4,350.00
2. An immediate rally upward and back down to TEST the lower boundary of the trading range. However, this particular signal is not mandatory.
3. A rally back upside to the upper boundary (top) of the trading range from a TEST of Support that occurs at the lower boundary of the trading range.
4. A Sign of Strength identified by an Up Thrust above the upper boundary of the trading range.

If all four of those steps above were to occur, then YES, this will "confirm" our analysis of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.

The following link is an image to provide an example of one type of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png

Below, are two links with further information on the EVENTS TO OCCUR WITHIN SCHEMATICS. Both were put together well in a short synopsis of Wyckoff Schematics:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:wyckoff_market_analy

If you are wondering where the upper and lower boundary of the trading range is located; Red, identifies the upper boundary and Green identifies the lower boundary of the trading range.

If a "Sign of Strength" does not come to pass, it's likely it was a simple rally that extended Phase B and Phase C will not occur until October more than likely. Also, I would be surprised to see us go below $5,774.72 again on BitStamp.

Comment: Update with the Daily (1440m) TF: Looks like more room for upside pressure to continue to Sunday, July 22, 2018. Which means, we may very well go up to my Blue Secondary 0.236 FIB @ $7,712.67 before turning back down. Could go higher but I'm sticking to patterns I've seen in history. I'm expecting a drop from that 0.236 Blue Secondary FIB to the Red FIB 0.382 @ $7,085.93 or Red FIB 0.5 @ $6,892.34. We will have a better idea where it will drop to once it finally gets to where it's going in our current upside pressure.



The 2-Day TF has us potentially continuing with upside pressure until July 26th before a brief dip. NOTE: I did not edit the text bubbles that were written in the Daily TF.

Comment: BTCUSD - Bitstamp - UPDATE: This update is simply to show two possible options. One option is the Purple line to confirm a Wyckoff Schematic #1. The second option is Schematic #1 being rejected and we go down once more to confirm a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2. Number two only prolongs the "beginning" of a parabolic bull run. Here's the chart:
Comment: The Red Schematic is a potential Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2. The Purple Schematic is Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1. I believe the announcement of the ETF approval or rejection will play a major roll in regards to whether we have a Schematic #1 or #2 come to pass in the near future.

Comment: Those thinking we were going much higher than my Blue Secondary 0.236 FIB at $7,712.67 may be disappointed. I personally believe we need to come down a bit to refuel before legging up past that FIB.

I sold my BTC at $7,720'ish.

Comment: Let you see what the 12h (720m) TF looks like. It scared the hell out of me. Which compelled me to sell where I did at $7,620. The $7,720 number I said in previous post was a typo. I sold at $7,620.

here's the 12h:

Comment: The Daily shows a little more room for my Phoenix ARI to go up to the 100% level but there's no guarantee it will go to the 100% level before going down. It's currently at 80% level. The Phoenix ARI is inside the indicator at the very bottom and it's currently neon Green in color.

Comment: Posted the wrong chart. My bad...

Here is the Daily with the Phoenix ARI I was referring to:

Comment: Show you a pattern I've noticed with the price action when legging up. You will see both times I placed a SECOND FIB (That I call "secondary") with coordinates set at the 1.618 and 2.618 of the PRIMARY FIB. The price action will often go to the 0.236 FIB when legging up. Or at least close to it.

Comment: Alarm woke me up about an hour ago. Before I get back to sleep, I wanted to take the time to share one more thing. Note the Red FIB. going down from the first leg up (in history). I placed the coordinates for RED FIB RT (ReTrace Down) as follows:

0.0 FIB coordinate placed at the Black FIB's 1.0 coordinate; which was $8,424.99

1.0 FIB coordinate placed at the Black FIB's 0.236 coordinate; which was $6,898.65

The price CAME DOWN close to the 0.382 Red FIB at $7,841.93. I placed a Red Price Point on where the ACTUAL price went down to ($7,806.81).



Now, I did the same thing (locally) for our RED FIB RT (Re-Trace Down) as follows:

0.0 coordinate placed at the Purple FIB's 0.0 coordinate; which was $7,712.67

1.0 coordinate placed at the Purple FIB's 0.236 coordinate; which was $6,232.08

If the price comes down near the 0.382 FIB similar to what it did in history, the 0.382 Red FIB price point is $7,147.08. You can scatter a few buy-ins (entries) above and below that price point on BitStamp if you like. The reason I'm showing you this in charts is in case you want to do similar FIB placements on a chart for YOUR exchange you're trading on.

There is NO GUARANTEE the price point will come down similar here locally as what it did in history. I'm simply posting comparisons to history to share what I'm doing personally.

Comment: NOTE: Do not assume the price will follow my black and red lines with arrows I've placed on the chart. I only have those lines (especially the red ones) out to the side away from the candles to point to the price level(s) I believe we're heading down to potentially before we continue with our bull trend.

To be clear: I'm thinking the price will come down NEAR to the 0.382 FIB at $7,147.08. I also recommended spreading other entries above and below that price point.

You will also notice the FIB calculation to the peak of the next leg up falls between $8,910.32 and $9,367.68
Comment:
Comment: Wanted to point out something to those of you using Godmode in conjunction with Stochastic RSI in the 12h (720m) TF:

The Blue LSMA in Godmode may remain rather high (between 70% and 90% level) for quite a while before finally going down slowly to the 20% or lower level.

Comment: Hi everyone, I went to my mother-n-law's house today to help set her up for her move back to her house after getting out of the hospital from hip replacement surgery. She's 82 years old. She has new railing on BOTH sides of her stairs now. As well as her bathroom and shower. This was done without sleep. So, when I got home I was too sleepy to dive into charts and posting. I was able to get a short nap but I'm still sleepy.

I was expecting us to go up some today and I see we did. However, I'm still expecting us to come down hopefully to at least that Red 0.382 FIB @ $7,147.08. I've drawn some lines and scribble on the 180m, 360m and 480m TF's of what I believe the future travel of those lines will be.

Comment: You will notice in the 180m TF (on the far left) the Phoenix ARI is up further ahead of the Stochastic RSI and it's neon Green color; indicating we still have upward pressure contending with downward pressure. The Stochastic RSI is acting like it wants to roll over already. However, It probably want till the Phoenix ARI hits at least the 80% level; if not the 100% level first before it has a chance to come down to my 0.382 FIB.
Comment: I drew some scribble here of possible future track of the Stochastic RSI in the bottom indicators and future track of the Red Relative Strength Index in Godmode. I'm expecting the Phoenix ARI to remain between 80% and 100% level until we reach our high later at the end of July before coming down.



If you're wondering why I believe that, have a look at the 2-Day TF. You'll notice the Phoenix ARI still has room to come up before falling down.

Comment: This Green Line in Godmode on the 6h TF has turned up sharply in a jagged "Z" shape; which doesn't occur very often. I "SHOULD" have recommended everyone to implement my usual "Division Into Thirds" strategy. Meaning, one 3rd should have been used at or near the bottom of this turn upside. Another 3rd should have been held in reserve in case of further drop and another 3rd for the breakout.

Comment: Proposal for similar situation in the future in regards to recent event:

THE TIME to implement these rules mentioned below is ONLY when we still see bullish signal in the 2-Day TF. Which we did... How do we know we were still bullish in the 2-Day TF? The Blue LSMA had room to go up; which see below:

2-Day TF:



12h (720m) TF:



6h (360m) TF:



3h (180m) TF:

Comment: The purpose of mentioning what I did above is to LEARN from errors/mistakes. If anyone else has thoughts on the ideas mentioned above, please fill free to share.
Comment: 3-Day TF still looks bullish for long term:



4-Day TF still looks bullish for long term:



The 2-Day TF still shows bullish trend to last till at least July 29th or 30th at a minimum.



More TF's to follow to provide CURRENT TA. The previous charts with comments BEFORE this posts focused on what can be done to exercise better trading strategy.
Comment: Simply showing where the PEAK of THIS leg up is expected to reach: It remains the same within a range from: $8,910.32 to $9,367. Got to get some sleep. ALater...

Comment: Here's the 3-Day TF (For those who don't know; each candle is a period of 3-Days Time Frame). I'm going to post the 7-Day, 4-Day, 2-Day, 1-Day (1440m), 720m and 360m with comments inside text bubbles over the next hour or two.

Comment: I'm going to fix myself something to eat for lunch after posting this 4-Day TF. I'll continue my updates after eating.

Comment: Adding one more note to this 4-Day TF before eating lunch:

Comment: 2-Day TF:

Comment: Daily (1440m) TF:

Comment: From this day forward, I will mainly post charts/signals in regards to TREND trading rather than SWING trading.

I will define TREND and SWING trading as follows:

TREND trading involves posting charts in the 12h TF and HIGHER and using the 360m TF for entry/exit points.

SWING trading would involve posting charts in Daily TF and LOWER and using the 60m TF for entry/exit points.

Trend trading involves less risk while implementing much fewer trades.

Swing trading involves more risk with strict safeguards in place to keep losses small and gains large while implementing more trades.

I have too much going on behind the scenes at the moment in regards to several ideas I have in mind for trading and education on trading. These projects I have going on behind the scenes is taking up a large part of my time; which is why I will mainly post signals for TREND trading for a while.

Happy Trading,

David
Comment: To be more specific about my definition on SWING trading:

Swing trading involves more risk with strict safeguards in place to keep losses small and gains large on small "swings" that occur during a current TREND (whether that trend is bullish or bearish).

We are currently in a bull trend. Which means it's important to note our swings upward will be more pronounced than our downward swings. So, be prepared to make entry much sooner during a BRIEF downward swing in preparation for a longer upward swing in a bull trend.

When in a bear trend, it's important to note our downward swings will be more pronounced than our upward swings. So, one must be prepared to make exit much sooner during a brief upward swing in preparation for a longer downward swing in a bear trend.
Comment: I'm about to take a break. Before I do, I wanted to provide a "helpful hint" for those who have used Godmode for a while and are practicing swing trading within a trend. The helpful hint is located in the black text bubble.

Off to my break now...

Comment: The last update posted was the 12h (720m) TF to point out a helpful hint in regards to trading swings within trends. It was quite obvious this downside swing was approaching in this bull trend. When we see the Blue LSMA this high along with the Red Relative Strength Index, that should be a trigger for you to look at a lower TF to "try" to determine how soon the downside swing will occur. Sometimes going to two lower TF's is beneficial. For me, I normally have a look at the 360m (6h) and 180m (3h) TF's when this situation approaches.

My initial analysis still stands regarding my black lines with arrows pointing to a higher price than where we are currently. That price range remains the same within a range from: $8,910.32 to $9,367. I'm standing behind that analysis mainly from what I'm seeing in the 3-Day and 4-Day TF.

Here's a look at the 180m (3h) TF:



Here's a look at the 360m (6h) TF:

Comment: Getting close to time for a new publication. This one is getting long...

Pointing out my argument for another move upside after this current stint of downward pressure.

2-Day TF:



A look in the 3-Day TF:

Comment: $7,712.67 looks like that could be the reversal point on BitStamp:

Comment: Another look at the 12h (720m) TF. Main emphasis is the Phoenix ARI (Alternate
Reality Indicator) at the bottom of the chart. If it breaks below the 80% level here, that could mean a decent chance for prolonged downward pressure and indicate a long accumulation event is at hand; as well as potentially confirm we are in an Accumulation Schematic #2.

Comment: 6h TF:



3h TF:

Hi,
It realy looks "Schematic #2". Bravo, You were realy early with that in mind
+1 Reply
@Jour,

Agreed... We would require a HUGE increase in volume to bust HARD through the $10k level and up to $13k for a sign of strength. I don't think we will see this occur here. When we dropped down below the lower boundary of the trading range (That was $5,920.72 on Stamp) to signal the POTENTIAL for Accumulation Schematic #1. However, the price action has not reflected Accumulation Schematic #1 after dropping down below the lower boundary in June, 2018. There's still a chance for it to do so because it takes time for these things to play out. However, I'm having a hard time seeing it come to fruition of the volume does not pick up dramatically soon to the upside. Odds are, we are in an Accumulation Schematic #2.
Reply
Jour ProwdClown
@ProwdClown, Maybe is worth to take in consideration that there are now more exchanges, and old ones have therefore less volume.
+1 Reply
@Jour,

True... There's still a chance for Accumulation Schematic #1 but I still have a hard time seeing it come to pass. There's time for it to come to pass but it will need to make a serious move up to $13k by end of August. Otherwise, we're in Accumulation Schematic #2.
Reply
Looks legit. You are one of the best analyst in TV. Best regards!
+2 Reply
@Astroc,

Thanks Astroc! Very kind for you to say that!

I was hoping my recent post on July 24th BEFORE this dip began was an inspiration for others to begin using Godmode with Stochastic RSI. That post on July 24th included a chart with a "HELPFUL HINT" in a BLACK Text Bubble on the 12h (720 minute) chart I posted. I was hoping everyone saw a SWING DOWN was coming. I probably should have come out and said it plainly rather than saying, "Helpful Hint." I also drew Aqua colored scribble on the price action to show a dip was coming. I wasn't sure HOW MUCH of a dip was coming but I knew a dip was coming.

In my opinion, it's best to learn how to trade the swings in the 360m and 720m TF's (Time Frames) to allow yourself the opportunity to ALWAYS be in the game just in case the price were to move dramatically; as was the case here. This was an opportunity to accumulate more coins.

I personally chose to skip out on this downward swing because I have thing going on behind the scenes in regards to trading signals and education. That's more important to me at this point in time because it can pay great dividends not only to myself but to others who get involved in the future. It will take a while to get it together. Plan on going LIVE with it in the next 30 to 60 days.

Thanks for your support, for dropping by to offer kind words and for the "Like."

Happy Trading!

; )
+1 Reply
I have made very good decisions thanks to your precise TA. I really appreciate your work. Thanks!
+3 Reply
@lauloya,

Thanks, Lauloya for your very kind comment.

; )
+1 Reply
Bring on the trend trading. I'm still learning, but the more experience I get the more I think just going with the daily trend and not worrying about catching the very top or bottom is the best move. Definitely better for my sleep and peace of mind! Keep up the good work!
+2 Reply
@IkemenJ,

I will agree with that 100%, IkemenJ. It's less stressful on us both. Especially, if I'm to get anything done with projects I have going on currently.
Reply
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