I chose "Long" on this publication. However, I'm not expecting a reversal to the upside until we reach the Dashed Magenta Vertical Time Line you see in the 1440m (Daily) and 2-Day combined chart.
Here's the chart again to see it better: Also, feel free to click "Make it My Own" icon in bottom right corner below the cover chart.
NOTE: THE 2-DAY TF HAS THE MAGENTA VERTICAL TIME LINE ON JULY 18TH. THE DAILY HAS IT ON JULY 15TH. I'M SAYING REVERSAL IS LIKELY ON THE 15TH.
Here's the 19-Day TF:
Here's 2014 Daily TF: Pay attention to movement of Blue LSMA...
Here's Present Day Daily TF: Pay attention to the movement of the Blue LSMA. The Blue LSMA goes up to higher levels and remains there longer than in 2014. Also, the amount of time between the Red and Purple lines in 2014 was almost 5 months exactly. Present day period between Red and Purple Vertical time lines was a 3 month period. Maybe you're wondering if we should continue downward two more months to equal those five months. No, not necessarily. Mainly because we should not expect the market to behave exactly the same way twice. Remember, the market is an artist, not a computer. It has a repertoire of basic behavior patterns that it subtly modifies, combines and springs unexpectedly on its audience. A trading market is an entity with a mind of its own.
"To play the devil's advocate - when does one stop zooming out? If you're looking to make an oscillator pull back from a maximum position, won't you always be able to achieve this by going to a high enough time frame?
This is a critical part of your analysis that I still don't fully understand - I do expect it's due to my own ignorance, though. Help a brother out?"
My response is down below in followers comments. Check it out...
The "issue" we come across is: How do we know which time frame is "high enough?" The problem is; We don't know which one is high enough because Fundamental Analysis is always changing along with Technical Analysis. I wish it did run like a computer where it would be spot on every time. Unfortunately, it's not. Remember: We should not expect the market to behave exactly the same way twice. Remember, the market is an artist, not a computer. It has a repertoire of basic behavior patterns that it subtly modifies, combines and springs unexpectedly on its audience. A trading market is an entity with a mind of its own.
Here's the 12-Day TF:
You have probably noticed some of the text bubbles read close to the same thing but not exact. That's to be expected on some of them when changing from on time frame to another.
I want to make a comment before making a suggestion: I've taught telephone technicians how to use their meter to identify and locate troubles since July 27, 1997. I found the following statistics to hold true during the many years I've been teaching.
1. Depending on the individual; we remember approximately 20 to 40 percent of what we READ.
2. Depending on the individual; we remember approximately 40 to 60 percent of what we WRITE DOWN.
3. Depending on the individual; we remember approximately 60 to 80 percent of what we SAY.
Also, studies have shown in order for something to become a HABIT (like riding a bicycle) we need to repeat that particular thing 18 TIMES STRAIGHT (on average/depending on the individual). Meaning, if you have a habit of putting your left leg in your pants leg first before putting your right leg in and you want to change it (reverse it) by putting HABITUALLY putting your right leg in first before the left; then you need to practice it 18 times straight for it to become a HABIT. IF you mess up on the 11th time and put your left leg in first, you have to START OVER AGAIN and do it 18 TIMES STRAIGHT before it becomes a HABIT.
I provided the previous statistics to say this: Please READ OUT LOUD what you see in the text bubbles. Especially, if you are an older person (like myself at age 51). The more you read OUT LOUD - AND - DO SO REPEATEDLY, THE FASTER YOU WILL GRASP A HOLD OF THIS TECHNIQUE with Godmode and Stochastic RSI.
The biggest difference in the 4-Day verses the 5-Day TF is the shape of the Blue LSMA. However, you will notice the shape of the Blue LSMA in present day compared to 2015 is very similar. This still suggests this may be the beginning of our Spring. We do not have a clear indication as to whether we will have one more Rally before a Sign of Strength or if we will go straight up from here with a Sign of Strength.
3-Day TF stretched to see only present day up closer. The charts to follow afterward will not include a glimpse of February 2015. This way I can enlarge the font again to help those who require glasses to read. ; )
I must get some sleep.
720m (12h) TF: NOT much difference between the 1080m and 720m. So, I did not bother to edit the text bubbles at all. They read the same.
I've included a blue dashed vertical time line in this 2-Day chart to identify the APPROXIMATE date in which a peak arrives before a brief dip. You will also note the blue scribble to depict the POSSIBLE future travel of the Blue LSMA and orange scribble to depict the POSSIBLE future travel of the orange trailing line of the Stochastic RSI.
I'm expecting the peak price before a brief dip will range between $7,465.98 and $7,712.67. Keep in mind, the vertical time line identifying the date of that peak is an estimated approximate date. We could arrive to that peak a few days sooner.
We may still have more time to move up to the Blue secondary 0.236 FIB @ $7,712.67. I need to check lower and higher time frames to see if it may go up to the Blue Secondary FIB @ 0.236 before a brief dip then a continuation of the bull trend. I will post a chart or two with comments after I check some lower and higher time frames.
In the previous publication I mentioned four (4) points must come to pass to "confirm" an Accumulation Schematic #1. Those four (4) points being the following:
1. Not falling below $4,350.00
2. An immediate rally upward and back down to TEST the lower boundary of the trading range. However, this particular signal is not mandatory.
3. A rally back upside to the upper boundary (top) of the trading range from a TEST of Support that occurs at the lower boundary of the trading range.
4. A Sign of Strength identified by an Up Thrust above the upper boundary of the trading range.
If all four of those steps above were to occur, then YES, this will "confirm" our analysis of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.
The following link is an image to provide an example of one type of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
Below, are two links with further information on the EVENTS TO OCCUR WITHIN SCHEMATICS. Both were put together well in a short synopsis of Wyckoff Schematics:
If you are wondering where the upper and lower boundary of the trading range is located; Red, identifies the upper boundary and Green identifies the lower boundary of the trading range.
If a "Sign of Strength" does not come to pass, it's likely it was a simple rally that extended Phase B and Phase C will not occur until October more than likely. Also, I would be surprised to see us go below $5,774.72 again on BitStamp.
The 2-Day TF has us potentially continuing with upside pressure until July 26th before a brief dip. NOTE: I did not edit the text bubbles that were written in the Daily TF.
I sold my BTC at $7,720'ish.
here's the 12h:
Here is the Daily with the Phoenix ARI I was referring to:
0.0 FIB coordinate placed at the Black FIB's 1.0 coordinate; which was $8,424.99
1.0 FIB coordinate placed at the Black FIB's 0.236 coordinate; which was $6,898.65
The price CAME DOWN close to the 0.382 Red FIB at $7,841.93. I placed a Red Price Point on where the ACTUAL price went down to ($7,806.81).
Now, I did the same thing (locally) for our RED FIB RT (Re-Trace Down) as follows:
0.0 coordinate placed at the Purple FIB's 0.0 coordinate; which was $7,712.67
1.0 coordinate placed at the Purple FIB's 0.236 coordinate; which was $6,232.08
If the price comes down near the 0.382 FIB similar to what it did in history, the 0.382 Red FIB price point is $7,147.08. You can scatter a few buy-ins (entries) above and below that price point on BitStamp if you like. The reason I'm showing you this in charts is in case you want to do similar FIB placements on a chart for YOUR exchange you're trading on.
There is NO GUARANTEE the price point will come down similar here locally as what it did in history. I'm simply posting comparisons to history to share what I'm doing personally.
To be clear: I'm thinking the price will come down NEAR to the 0.382 FIB at $7,147.08. I also recommended spreading other entries above and below that price point.
You will also notice the FIB calculation to the peak of the next leg up falls between $8,910.32 and $9,367.68
The Blue LSMA in Godmode may remain rather high (between 70% and 90% level) for quite a while before finally going down slowly to the 20% or lower level.
I was expecting us to go up some today and I see we did. However, I'm still expecting us to come down hopefully to at least that Red 0.382 FIB @ $7,147.08. I've drawn some lines and scribble on the 180m, 360m and 480m TF's of what I believe the future travel of those lines will be.
If you're wondering why I believe that, have a look at the 2-Day TF. You'll notice the Phoenix ARI still has room to come up before falling down.
THE TIME to implement these rules mentioned below is ONLY when we still see bullish signal in the 2-Day TF. Which we did... How do we know we were still bullish in the 2-Day TF? The Blue LSMA had room to go up; which see below:
12h (720m) TF:
6h (360m) TF:
3h (180m) TF:
4-Day TF still looks bullish for long term:
The 2-Day TF still shows bullish trend to last till at least July 29th or 30th at a minimum.
More TF's to follow to provide CURRENT TA. The previous charts with comments BEFORE this posts focused on what can be done to exercise better trading strategy.
I will define TREND and SWING trading as follows:
TREND trading involves posting charts in the 12h TF and HIGHER and using the 360m TF for entry/exit points.
SWING trading would involve posting charts in Daily TF and LOWER and using the 60m TF for entry/exit points.
Trend trading involves less risk while implementing much fewer trades.
Swing trading involves more risk with strict safeguards in place to keep losses small and gains large while implementing more trades.
I have too much going on behind the scenes at the moment in regards to several ideas I have in mind for trading and education on trading. These projects I have going on behind the scenes is taking up a large part of my time; which is why I will mainly post signals for TREND trading for a while.
Swing trading involves more risk with strict safeguards in place to keep losses small and gains large on small "swings" that occur during a current TREND (whether that trend is bullish or bearish).
We are currently in a bull trend. Which means it's important to note our swings upward will be more pronounced than our downward swings. So, be prepared to make entry much sooner during a BRIEF downward swing in preparation for a longer upward swing in a bull trend.
When in a bear trend, it's important to note our downward swings will be more pronounced than our upward swings. So, one must be prepared to make exit much sooner during a brief upward swing in preparation for a longer downward swing in a bear trend.
Off to my break now...
My initial analysis still stands regarding my black lines with arrows pointing to a higher price than where we are currently. That price range remains the same within a range from: $8,910.32 to $9,367. I'm standing behind that analysis mainly from what I'm seeing in the 3-Day and 4-Day TF.
Here's a look at the 180m (3h) TF:
Here's a look at the 360m (6h) TF:
Pointing out my argument for another move upside after this current stint of downward pressure.
A look in the 3-Day TF:
Reality Indicator) at the bottom of the chart. If it breaks below the 80% level here, that could mean a decent chance for prolonged downward pressure and indicate a long accumulation event is at hand; as well as potentially confirm we are in an Accumulation Schematic #2.
Agreed... We would require a HUGE increase in volume to bust HARD through the $10k level and up to $13k for a sign of strength. I don't think we will see this occur here. When we dropped down below the lower boundary of the trading range (That was $5,920.72 on Stamp) to signal the POTENTIAL for Accumulation Schematic #1. However, the price action has not reflected Accumulation Schematic #1 after dropping down below the lower boundary in June, 2018. There's still a chance for it to do so because it takes time for these things to play out. However, I'm having a hard time seeing it come to fruition of the volume does not pick up dramatically soon to the upside. Odds are, we are in an Accumulation Schematic #2.
True... There's still a chance for Accumulation Schematic #1 but I still have a hard time seeing it come to pass. There's time for it to come to pass but it will need to make a serious move up to $13k by end of August. Otherwise, we're in Accumulation Schematic #2.
Thanks Astroc! Very kind for you to say that!
I was hoping my recent post on July 24th BEFORE this dip began was an inspiration for others to begin using Godmode with Stochastic RSI. That post on July 24th included a chart with a "HELPFUL HINT" in a BLACK Text Bubble on the 12h (720 minute) chart I posted. I was hoping everyone saw a SWING DOWN was coming. I probably should have come out and said it plainly rather than saying, "Helpful Hint." I also drew Aqua colored scribble on the price action to show a dip was coming. I wasn't sure HOW MUCH of a dip was coming but I knew a dip was coming.
In my opinion, it's best to learn how to trade the swings in the 360m and 720m TF's (Time Frames) to allow yourself the opportunity to ALWAYS be in the game just in case the price were to move dramatically; as was the case here. This was an opportunity to accumulate more coins.
I personally chose to skip out on this downward swing because I have thing going on behind the scenes in regards to trading signals and education. That's more important to me at this point in time because it can pay great dividends not only to myself but to others who get involved in the future. It will take a while to get it together. Plan on going LIVE with it in the next 30 to 60 days.
Thanks for your support, for dropping by to offer kind words and for the "Like."
Thanks, Lauloya for your very kind comment.
I will agree with that 100%, IkemenJ. It's less stressful on us both. Especially, if I'm to get anything done with projects I have going on currently.