oldstout
Short

Bottom, where are you?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Few clues:
-look at first support line (start ~223$); each time we touched line price went up hard with rsi>70
-this strong bullish trend doesn't care about RSI , so we see bearish divergence
-we jumped into 2nd support line and made 2 HH
-now we're touching line 3rd time, so we "should" make solid bounce and form right shoulder of HS (left shoulder started with A)
-however we're in bigger HS, started with July, 3rd, and our upper-support line is neckline :-)

So what now?

Best answer is "who knows?" but I guess that this strong bull support is out of ammo which could be start of new bearish cycle. Also price should adjust with bear div             and earlier or later meet again main support line.
In my opinion if we break 2nd, upper support line, we won't bounce again from main support line. 2nd support line would be resistance, ichi 4h above us and we'll probably break main support line with big volume and new low which will be end of C wave.
This low of C wave should be under A low (272$) and above (i believe) .618 fibo (256$).
The really bearish ending could spike with huge volume hammer into .786-.681 zone.

My 2 bear scenario

Yellow - with right shoulder of HS
Red - without serious bounce

Invalidation - new high 299$+... So let's say that 300$ Moon is be or not to be for bulls.
I'm bear and i'm happy with that:)

Good luck in trading!
down
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Damn it,
it's coming quite as you said and I had to cancel my long
+1 Reply
oldstout purpurato59
I hope you get small loss.:) Cut losses is hard but great tactic. If this chart will be good, we should bounce now to upper line (287-289$?) and go more down. I closed short and open long.
Reply
Great chart!
+1 Reply
Good solid reasoning and great explanation. I agree with your sentiment, but I would say that...my chart is almost identical to yours :)
+2 Reply
oldstout Backlash
thank you:)
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