1) EW Count: BTC should be starting the final leg of a WXY correction with the (Y) wave being a 1:1 5-3-5 ABC with a target around $9,000-$10,000. There's plenty of confluence around ~$10,000 including the highest volume node on the volume profile.
2) The 200 Weekly MA: Bitcoin is REALLY getting COMFORTABLE UNDER the 200 Weekly MA. Contrary to a few people saying this is an accumulation zone, any asset consolidating under its 200 Weekly MA is not bullish. Especially bitcoin. Bitcoin had wicks under the 200 Weekly MA, but always climbed back above it. This time, Bitcoin consolidated in an ascending structure before getting rejected at the 200 Weekly MA and broke down.
3) Cipher B: For the first time in Bitcoin's history, the Monthly Money Flow turns negative as the monthly August candle closes.
4) Pathetic Bear Market Rally: Rising interest rates are really exposing bitcoin for what it is: A RISK ON ASSET. As interest rates rise, investors are going to become a lot more cautious dumping money into speculative risk on assets like bitcoin and growth stocks. Additionally, risk off assets don't nosedive over 50% in a few months or in some cases, weeks. For the first time in bitcoin's existence, bitcoin will be facing a hawkish FED. Bitcoin has already crashed over 70% with the US 10Y hovering around the 200M MA. What happens if the US 10Y holds the 200M MA as support, and explodes higher? Is inflation really under control? Is the Inflation Reduction Act which has nothing to do with inflation going to tame inflation? If both answers are no: US 10Y will go higher.
Why didn't BTC hit six figures this cycle?
1) IMO, Bitcoin became too successful. At its peak bitcoin was over a trillion dollar asset. Heck Netflix is a FAANG and it's not even close to a trillion. From a market maker's perspective, why push bitcoin into multiple trillions for a 2-3x, when market makers can utilize that same capital to pump and dump garbage alt coins 100x+. Regulation contradicts the whole concept of cryptocurrency, but if bitcoin ever plans to push into multiple trillions and surpass GOLD (11T), these garbage alts pumped by social media content creators need to be removed. The focus MUST be on bitcoin.
2) Valuing cryptocurrency in dollars. Whether people want to admit it or not, I don't think many people invest in cryptocurrency because of the future technology. People invest in cryptocurrency to get rich quick. And that's why I never completely understood the bullish thesis behind bitcoin nor gold. If the Dollar is going to ZERO, why are people checking BTC/USD or XAU/USD charts? As Michael Saylor says, "Why are you comparing a superior asset in bitcoin to an inferior asset like Mexican Pesos?" Shouldn't the question be: "How many bitcoins or how many ounces of gold do I own?" instead of "How many U.S. Dollars do I have invested in Bitcoin or Gold?" The latter is what the majority ask themselves. After all, when you open your portfolio, your portfolio is valued in DOLLARS. Even tho DXY is showing parabolic strength, DXY fundamentally is an absolute abomination created by the United States government to manipulate every person's mind into believing USD is king when in reality USD has lost 99% of its purchasing power since inception. USD is the king of fiat currencies, but being the king of fiat currencies is an empty title.
So is bitcoin the solution? Frankly, I don't believe bitcoin is the solution to anything. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bring out the WORST in people: GREED. The crypto community is by far the most toxic community out of all asset classes. It's not even close. Cryptocurrency has deviated from focusing on decentralization away from strengthening central governments to get rich pump and dump schemes. Imo, cryptocurrency was created as a bridge to CBDC's. I certainly don't believe bitcoin was created by one Japanese dude named Satoshi Nakamoto which coincidentally translates to "Central Intelligence". This "dude" created a trillion dollar asset and disappeared into the wilderness never to be seen again. Ye ok. I think the purpose of current cryptocurrencies is to familiarize everyone with cryptocurrencies before implementing CBDC's. Examples: Ads on public transportation, Ads in sports arenas, etc. Where does that leave current cryptocurrencies? Nowhere good in my opinion. Where does that leave humanity? Nowhere good in my opinion. Nothing good can come from governments controlling your wallet because that means you are FULLY DEPENDENT on the government. Disobedience and inability to conform will warrant consequences. Winter for both cryptocurrency and humanity could just be starting. Or if this ages like my Uranium posts, Biden will talk about adopting bitcoin in 48 hours and BTC moonshots. Hope is not a trading strategy, but all of us could use some hope in our lives right now. GL! Never forget:
"Welcome to 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better!" - WEF
That quote is the destiny WEF is imposing upon you. But I believe we can all make certain life choices to avoid that destiny. Fight the good fight!
2) The 200 Weekly MA: Bitcoin is REALLY getting COMFORTABLE UNDER the 200 Weekly MA. Contrary to a few people saying this is an accumulation zone, any asset consolidating under its 200 Weekly MA is not bullish. Especially bitcoin. Bitcoin had wicks under the 200 Weekly MA, but always climbed back above it. This time, Bitcoin consolidated in an ascending structure before getting rejected at the 200 Weekly MA and broke down.
3) Cipher B: For the first time in Bitcoin's history, the Monthly Money Flow turns negative as the monthly August candle closes.
4) Pathetic Bear Market Rally: Rising interest rates are really exposing bitcoin for what it is: A RISK ON ASSET. As interest rates rise, investors are going to become a lot more cautious dumping money into speculative risk on assets like bitcoin and growth stocks. Additionally, risk off assets don't nosedive over 50% in a few months or in some cases, weeks. For the first time in bitcoin's existence, bitcoin will be facing a hawkish FED. Bitcoin has already crashed over 70% with the US 10Y hovering around the 200M MA. What happens if the US 10Y holds the 200M MA as support, and explodes higher? Is inflation really under control? Is the Inflation Reduction Act which has nothing to do with inflation going to tame inflation? If both answers are no: US 10Y will go higher.
Why didn't BTC hit six figures this cycle?
1) IMO, Bitcoin became too successful. At its peak bitcoin was over a trillion dollar asset. Heck Netflix is a FAANG and it's not even close to a trillion. From a market maker's perspective, why push bitcoin into multiple trillions for a 2-3x, when market makers can utilize that same capital to pump and dump garbage alt coins 100x+. Regulation contradicts the whole concept of cryptocurrency, but if bitcoin ever plans to push into multiple trillions and surpass GOLD (11T), these garbage alts pumped by social media content creators need to be removed. The focus MUST be on bitcoin.
2) Valuing cryptocurrency in dollars. Whether people want to admit it or not, I don't think many people invest in cryptocurrency because of the future technology. People invest in cryptocurrency to get rich quick. And that's why I never completely understood the bullish thesis behind bitcoin nor gold. If the Dollar is going to ZERO, why are people checking BTC/USD or XAU/USD charts? As Michael Saylor says, "Why are you comparing a superior asset in bitcoin to an inferior asset like Mexican Pesos?" Shouldn't the question be: "How many bitcoins or how many ounces of gold do I own?" instead of "How many U.S. Dollars do I have invested in Bitcoin or Gold?" The latter is what the majority ask themselves. After all, when you open your portfolio, your portfolio is valued in DOLLARS. Even tho DXY is showing parabolic strength, DXY fundamentally is an absolute abomination created by the United States government to manipulate every person's mind into believing USD is king when in reality USD has lost 99% of its purchasing power since inception. USD is the king of fiat currencies, but being the king of fiat currencies is an empty title.
So is bitcoin the solution? Frankly, I don't believe bitcoin is the solution to anything. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bring out the WORST in people: GREED. The crypto community is by far the most toxic community out of all asset classes. It's not even close. Cryptocurrency has deviated from focusing on decentralization away from strengthening central governments to get rich pump and dump schemes. Imo, cryptocurrency was created as a bridge to CBDC's. I certainly don't believe bitcoin was created by one Japanese dude named Satoshi Nakamoto which coincidentally translates to "Central Intelligence". This "dude" created a trillion dollar asset and disappeared into the wilderness never to be seen again. Ye ok. I think the purpose of current cryptocurrencies is to familiarize everyone with cryptocurrencies before implementing CBDC's. Examples: Ads on public transportation, Ads in sports arenas, etc. Where does that leave current cryptocurrencies? Nowhere good in my opinion. Where does that leave humanity? Nowhere good in my opinion. Nothing good can come from governments controlling your wallet because that means you are FULLY DEPENDENT on the government. Disobedience and inability to conform will warrant consequences. Winter for both cryptocurrency and humanity could just be starting. Or if this ages like my Uranium posts, Biden will talk about adopting bitcoin in 48 hours and BTC moonshots. Hope is not a trading strategy, but all of us could use some hope in our lives right now. GL! Never forget:
"Welcome to 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better!" - WEF
That quote is the destiny WEF is imposing upon you. But I believe we can all make certain life choices to avoid that destiny. Fight the good fight!
