DanV
Short

BTCUSD - Could Be Topping

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Previously proposed rising wedge appear to be failing judging from the price action. Hence the expected move above 680 to 700 -720 zone is now looking very unlikely. Having struggled to make any successful bounce of 620 zone.

Both the MACD and Stochastic are suggesting bearish move.

If this is the case then we could have several weeks of down trend towards 310-280 zone.

Many may fined this illogical. However, this anticipation is based on my view and all traders must do their own analysis. I have at times entertained various possible outcomes. Such anticipation is not always guaranteed to play out. However it should keep from being trapped on the wrong side of the developing trend.

The falling wedge being proposed now is nothing new and was considered when we were bouncing of the 340 low (see chart ). It seems we still have essentially the same pattern but larger one.

For those who might object to me keep adjusting my views will note that overall expectation has not changed and that it is my prerogative to to do so with my charts.

If you wish to to gain understanding on what falling wedge might be or what it signifies you can view some of my Youtube videos in which I have explained the concept along with other ideas. The last one explaining why retest of 340 low or new lower low could be found at link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IujHKFHbcb4

http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
Really interesting to come back to this chart (and the discussion thereof) after so much time. Probably the single most discussed chart in the Bitcoin chat, criticized for being too bearish, it's funny to see your target was hit spot on, and after a bounce the market even dropped to much lower levels. The hostility in the comments section is a textbook example of market psychology and how strong denial can be during a bubble deflation ;) Good you haven't erased it!
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Thank you very much for your kind words. Much appreciated and pleasant to here positive comments.

I understand those who did not like and probably still don't is due to their inherent bullish bias as they feel that would help them make profit. So if anyone suggest alternate view is despised. It is almost like alternate view is taking money out of their pockets. This is in addition to seeming misconception that such new technology if that is what it is only move in one direction and do not experience any significant set backs.

However, all forms of bubbles no matter when and about what assets, often do burst and result is that relatively long period when it decline and goes flat before a lasting base is formed from which a new bullish cycle can develop id the assets still has merits. Otherwise could disappear altogether.

Therefore, whilst we might have higher prices, my view is that this is still retracing the decline from Nov 2013 and final low is not in place and probably will not be in place for at least next couple of years. But saying that would likely revoke strong reaction from others. So I will let the time unfold and show how the price will develops.
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That's is amazing Dan
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The Price action since Nov 2013 top has been keeping everyone on their toes, as they try to decipher where it is going next. I am looking at every possibilities and cannot ignore my original chart suggesting large triangle 3-3-3-3-3 normally appears in wave 4 position.

The last one was put in the background as it failed the initial expectation. However, with more price data now it is beginning to look as serious possibility. It needs more confirmation. ie from here price to run up past 607-610 zone to 630 and fail then drop in 3 swings to validate this triangle with final low being formed in the area of 570. Should this happen then it could offer real opportunity to go long with manageable stop for retest of ATH in due course.

Check out my chart of 5 months ago for more details of triangle known in EW as 3-3-3-3-3 and Youtube video

Bitcoin In Triangle in Wave 4 Consolidation & its Significance 16th March 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnpdt2YABY8

I will republish that chart later when we have more price data but for now you can prepare for it. Here is the chart snapshot
snapshot
+5 Reply
my expectations also
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Excellent. Thanks for your comment.
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There was a strong support at 550$ (3400cny) on Huobi (7k BTC) when we touched your point C. So without a strong bad news we won't break it.
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24/07/2014 19:15: So 2 Possibilities right now. We either hold today low and bounce to 620 or so then we could see a triangle form as shown below and breakout towards 750-780 zone before leading down. If we fail today's low then we have long way to drop and will be guided by the price unfolding.
snapshot
snapshot
+2 Reply
Agreed. 751.4 would give us the 50% retracement from the December (Bitstamp) high and also finish the 5th wave up.

snapshot
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DanLaffas DanLaffas
*November high
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