DanV
Short

BTCUSD - Could Be Topping

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Previously proposed rising wedge appear to be failing judging from the price action. Hence the expected move above 680 to 700 -720 zone is now looking very unlikely. Having struggled to make any successful bounce of 620 zone.

Both the MACD and Stochastic are suggesting bearish move.

If this is the case then we could have several weeks of down trend towards 310-280 zone.

Many may fined this illogical. However, this anticipation is based on my view and all traders must do their own analysis. I have at times entertained various possible outcomes. Such anticipation is not always guaranteed to play out. However it should keep from being trapped on the wrong side of the developing trend.

The falling wedge being proposed now is nothing new and was considered when we were bouncing of the 340 low (see chart
BTCUSD - Potential In Final Swing of Bearish Cycle
). It seems we still have essentially the same pattern but larger one.

For those who might object to me keep adjusting my views will note that overall expectation has not changed and that it is my prerogative to to do so with my charts.

If you wish to to gain understanding on what falling wedge might be or what it signifies you can view some of my Youtube videos in which I have explained the concept along with other ideas. The last one explaining why retest of 340 low or new lower low could be found at link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IujHKFHbcb4

http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
Welcome back BearV. May the Grizzly be with you!
+8 Reply
You're a joke, None of your chart is accurate

Bitcoin-BitStamp - Short Term Bearish Cycle to Resume

BTCUSD -  BitStamp

BTCUSD - Bitcoint in Bearish Configuration

-17 Reply
MikeLloyd BitWave
*sigh* People are not right 100% of the time, and because they are not does not make them any less credible (or able) to post more charts. If you don't believe that he's credible, post a response on WHY you disagree, instead of insulting them.
On the terms of those charts you linked as a reference:
1. The first one was actually fairly reliable as a long term prediction; in fact I would say it's a huge achievement to be anywhere near that accurate despite not hitting the exact targets. He also did post updates in the -comments- section of that chart with explanations
2. The second chart was wrong; but from what I interpret, he would have changed his mind on the movement afterwards.
3. This Is a chart of MtGox, It's fairly humorous that you even chose this one considering the circumstances.
+1 Reply
BitWave PRO MikeLloyd
Well, let's check his charts

1.
$BTCUSD - Bitcoin in Intermediate Term Bullish
target ~280 fail
2.
BTCUSD - BITCOIN -  Could it confound the BULLS?
target 291 fail
3.
BTCUSD -  BitStamp
target 200 fail
4.
BTCUSD - Potential In Final Swing of Bearish Cycle
target 321 fail
5.
Bitcoin-BitStamp - Short Term Bearish Cycle to Resume
traget 274 and 1000 fail
6.
Bitcoin - Short & Intermidiate term still Bearish
target 100 fail
7.
Bitcoin - In Triangle in Wave 4 Consolidation & its Significance
only chart working
8.
BitStamp - Still in Triangle wave (iv) of 3 Consolidation
target 1150 fail
9.
BTCUSD - Short term Bullish to 1100-1150 zone
target 1100-1150 fail
10.
BTCUSD - Bitcoint in Bearish Configuration
target ~300 fail


If someone trade bitcoin based on his charts, he'll lose all the bitcoins ))

so stop misleading other traders..
-10 Reply
Thank you for your considered opinion. 1st of all I would say as these are long term charts the Targets are more incidental than overall direction, which I do not claim to be 100%, just so that you and any interested party take note. However, it appears you are very intelligent individual, so making these kind of comments do not enhance your reputation, nor add to anyone experience or education. So may be you should stop and think what it is you wish to tell the wider world.
+5 Reply
Muwa BitWave
Looks like DanV was right this time and you were wrong, LOL.
+1 Reply
DanV confirmed as BasedGod
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ItisCalvin BitWave
That may be so, but these are ideas, and you should take them as just that. They are not trading advice unless you want to make them.
+2 Reply
ChartArt BitWave
"User has no published ideas yet"
+1 Reply
Nathanael BitWave
Poor DanV.
Praised by all when he is bullish, hated by most when he is bearish.
+1 Reply
I agree with the bearish move.

The worst we could see is 425. Maybe 500. But I think 550-600 is more realistic, because we are in a VERY strong uptrend. What we will see soon is a correction of the uptrend. If the correction is fast with good news coming in August it can change very quickly to a bull race.
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DanV MOD ChartArt
I understand and do appreciate your comments. We will have to let the time show us where we are headed. For now it is a best guess based on our interpretation.
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Meet your bear brother :)

The Great Bitcoin Rally and why it will end on 17.10.2014 12:00
+3 Reply
ChartArt ChartArt
"The Great Bitcoin Rally and why it will end on 17.10.2014"
The Great Bitcoin Rally and why it will end on 17.10.2014 12:00
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MrJozza ChartArt
While I too am bearish, we have broken the long term bull trends a few days ago and there was no sell off, speculative asset class as this is. I'm sitting on fiat right now, not trading margin and watching.
+2 Reply
Bitcoin could always surprise one and go up wild in an hour but it surely doesn't look good at the moment. 600s offered too much resistance.
+3 Reply
You could be right. We will just have to wait and see. But hope your expected support holds.
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Consensus bearish sentiment in here combined with bullish divergences in the hourly RSI, MACD, and Willy make me think all will be faked out. Watch for a rally...
+2 Reply
DanV MOD AKWAnalytics
Possible, but it would have to make a move sooner rather than later.
Reply
I'm with you again on this Dan. My old chart has just shown us crossing support which I assume will now become resistance.

BTC (Weekly) - bump and run theory
+2 Reply
DanLaffas DanLaffas
My updated chart
Bitstamp Weekly Chart - Updated 15 July 2014
+2 Reply
vortexspaces DanLaffas
Dan thx for your ideas! Always very interesting)))
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DanV MOD vortexspaces
YW
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DanV MOD DanLaffas
Yeh, general direction is more important to me rather than specific target. So we can be on the right side of the developing move not be caught by it. Thanks for your comments.
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Agreed. Sold my last BTC at 635. Just waiting for the turn to start shorting. My end target isn't fixed, I just like to take out the binoculars every now and then and look into the dim and blurry distance ;) At the very least, I'd expect a retest of the April bottom.
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DanV MOD DanLaffas
Excellent.
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On BitStamp unless we take out 640 with momentum it is vulnerable. above 640 it might have a chance for retest of 680 or make new high before reverting to downside
snapshot
+2 Reply
One of the older chart with time symmetry which if it holds we another couple of days or so for more side way move unless it decide to jump the gun.
snapshot
+1 Reply
Many of you have seen me share this chart over the period both in the live chat and in live Google Hangout. Stock Indices are close to forming an intermediate top if not major one and is beginning to show weakness. Some geopolitical events might be the catalyst. But should this have follow through then observe if it begins to reflect in the Bitcoin chart having high correlation between both. Here is the chart.
snapshot
+1 Reply
This correlation is pretty interesting, given the highly speculative nature of both instruments
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problem i see with this is comparing bitcoin's logarithmic growth to sp500's linear growth. i also don't see the correlations you speak of, and the few that you've pointed out seem to be forced.
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DanV MOD PaulAnthony
Thanks for your comments. In any correlation analysis, very rare if at at will you find they has 100% both in time and magnitude. So the objective is not to look for one but where there is relatively high correlation then it could be used. In this case most swings appear to be correlated in both direction with some either diverging or exaggerated but nevertheless it cannot be completely dismissed. As far as the vertical scale is concerned it is to to help identify the up and down swings on Bitcoin as due to its parabolic rise earlier moves are hardly identifiable on arithmetic scale. Hope this helps.
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We could be in progress to complete this rising wedge. ie Ending diagonal of Running Flat (price action in the BOX). Likely top around 635
snapshot
+2 Reply
It seem like we have the high in place 660. Drop since then we appear to have 1st leg drop to 608 in down trend. The congestion since then is either contracting triangle which should resolve to downside or that we have already commenced new leg to the downside which could be confirmed by move below 608
snapshot
+1 Reply
24/07/2014 19:15: So 2 Possibilities right now. We either hold today low and bounce to 620 or so then we could see a triangle form as shown below and breakout towards 750-780 zone before leading down. If we fail today's low then we have long way to drop and will be guided by the price unfolding.
snapshot
snapshot
+2 Reply
Agreed. 751.4 would give us the 50% retracement from the December (Bitstamp) high and also finish the 5th wave up.

snapshot
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DanLaffas DanLaffas
*November high
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DanLaffas DanLaffas
Failing the upward break, I'd suggest 550-570 as the first stop on the elevator down to the ground floor.
+2 Reply
DanV MOD DanLaffas
Yes Agreed.
+2 Reply
The Price action since Nov 2013 top has been keeping everyone on their toes, as they try to decipher where it is going next. I am looking at every possibilities and cannot ignore my original chart suggesting large triangle 3-3-3-3-3 normally appears in wave 4 position.

The last one was put in the background as it failed the initial expectation. However, with more price data now it is beginning to look as serious possibility. It needs more confirmation. ie from here price to run up past 607-610 zone to 630 and fail then drop in 3 swings to validate this triangle with final low being formed in the area of 570. Should this happen then it could offer real opportunity to go long with manageable stop for retest of ATH in due course.

Check out my chart of 5 months ago for more details of triangle known in EW as 3-3-3-3-3
BitStamp - Still in Triangle wave (iv) of 3 Consolidation
and Youtube video

Bitcoin In Triangle in Wave 4 Consolidation & its Significance 16th March 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnpdt2YABY8

I will republish that chart later when we have more price data but for now you can prepare for it. Here is the chart snapshot
snapshot
+5 Reply
my expectations also
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Excellent. Thanks for your comment.
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There was a strong support at 550$ (3400cny) on Huobi (7k BTC) when we touched your point C. So without a strong bad news we won't break it.
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That's is amazing Dan
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Really interesting to come back to this chart (and the discussion thereof) after so much time. Probably the single most discussed chart in the Bitcoin chat, criticized for being too bearish, it's funny to see your target was hit spot on, and after a bounce the market even dropped to much lower levels. The hostility in the comments section is a textbook example of market psychology and how strong denial can be during a bubble deflation ;) Good you haven't erased it!
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Thank you very much for your kind words. Much appreciated and pleasant to here positive comments.

I understand those who did not like and probably still don't is due to their inherent bullish bias as they feel that would help them make profit. So if anyone suggest alternate view is despised. It is almost like alternate view is taking money out of their pockets. This is in addition to seeming misconception that such new technology if that is what it is only move in one direction and do not experience any significant set backs.

However, all forms of bubbles no matter when and about what assets, often do burst and result is that relatively long period when it decline and goes flat before a lasting base is formed from which a new bullish cycle can develop id the assets still has merits. Otherwise could disappear altogether.

Therefore, whilst we might have higher prices, my view is that this is still retracing the decline from Nov 2013 and final low is not in place and probably will not be in place for at least next couple of years. But saying that would likely revoke strong reaction from others. So I will let the time unfold and show how the price will develops.
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