InvestingScope

Bitcoin: Roadmap to the next Halving. Reward phases and cycles.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is the long term logarithmic chart of BTCUSD providing a complete outlook of the halvings, reward phases and market cycles. All those parameters are much needed in anticipating and most of all timing the price action within the parabolic pattern.

Bitcoin cannot of course keep growing exponentially. The log ensures that its growth is decelerating on the long term to an asymptotic point.

This chart clearly illustrates the growth (uptrend) periods (shown in green) as well as the subsequent downtrend, accumulation and recovery/ distribution phases of the market cycle.

Halvings are the primary reason of those cycles as they initiate the supply shock that causes the start of the new uptrend/ bull market period.

As seen on the chart the next (3rd) Halving is scheduled for May 2020 where the new Recovery/ Distribution phase is expected to peak around $12,000. This is expected to initiate the new uptrend phase the peak of which should be considerably higher than the current All Time High, based on the parabolic pattern (see the chart below). BTC investors that follow those phases and historic patterns shouldn't wait for the next halving to buy as currently we have most likely concluded the downtrend and are at the start of the accumulation period. Roadmap





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Comments

Why should Bitcoin always be parabolic? A deceptive idea, fed by wishful thinking... ;-)

IMHO, like everything else in this financial world, it will probably move in impulsive and corrective phases.

+3 Reply
Poukitoun ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, so all world stock markets should go back to pre 1930? :)
+2 Reply
ReallyMe Poukitoun
@Poukitoun, There is no logic to draw this conclusion from what has been said.
Reply
Poukitoun ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, I think you missed the point...Where was the massive corrective phase here?



Corrective phases do happen but to say it is going to be a textbook Elliot corrective impulse wave seems to me quite arbitrary, not impossible at all but simply not a simple thing to predict. Particularly when it comes to adoption models, the growth can take the form of a multiple S curves which would mean the start of a much more aggressive growth. This was the case for the adoption curves for smartphones, microwaves, the internet, cars, Paypal, etc. Considering that the world adoption of Bitcoin is not even 1%, we still have a long way to go. However the major difference with other innovations is that Bitcoin is digital, meaning the adoption can happen really fast, particularly in the age of the Internet. That combined with a fix limited supply and the chances for continuous growth is much higher.
Reply
ReallyMe Poukitoun
@Poukitoun, I explained where the corrective phases are in my recent idea.

I never said it was going to be a textbook Elliot, did you read the text to the end?
Reply
Poukitoun ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, also have you ever seen a S adoption curve? ;)
+1 Reply
@ReallyMe, At some point it's asymptotic. We mention this on our text.
+1 Reply
ReallyMe InvestingScope
@InvestingScope, I think it's a big mistake to assume that the price will be "asymptotic" at some point, as you put it. ;-) That would mean that the price will move range-bound forever in an ever-narrowing area. It is totally unrealistic, there is no such thing in the real world financial markets, you have confused something with "asymptotic" ;-) theoretical mathematics.
Reply
InvestingScope bitcoinwizard1
@bitcoinwizard1, Very plausible scenari oof the accumulation - distribution phases.
Reply
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