Bitcoin inside a triangle, decision coming days? Part 2

From what i can see, actually even the past few days, there has been quite the fight between the Bitmex brothers and the other exchanges. Prices closed in to each other during the day, but the spread was increasing again the past few hours. Don't know what the game plan is,
- maybe it's just a simple fight between bears and bulls,
- maybe it's what i mentioned a while back, that the Bitmex bears push prices down on Bitstamp and Coinbase and since a 2 weeks Kraken as well, to keep the funding on Bitmex at low prices or sometimes even profitable.

One second it looks like the price will make a drop and attempts will be made to break big support levels, other moments it looks like the bulls are taking over and are ready to push higher. We are still moving inside that triangle in the chart on the right, so based on that it's no surprise that we just keep on bouncing up and down, but the annoying fact lately is, that this triangle is inside that bigger triangle where the whole world is looking at. Volume is low, price action on Bitfinex has been quite the joke lately. Seems almost like 80% of the orders are just bots doing their thing.

Anyway, still not much to add to the previous analysis. IMO things are still in balance almost, but the bears do have the upper hand still. The past few days have been heavy for the bulls, highs keep getting lower each lame attempt they make to push up again after a drop. This shows the bear still have allot of grip, unless the bulls are still not showing their hand and are waiting for the right moment to step in. That fractal on the left, which is still in play, does confirm that unless that 6450ish breaks.
The 6660 level is a level i have been mentioning for a while now, but the past few days it has been a important level once again. That red line scenario is still in play because the bulls have not been able to break the 6660 level. The past few hours it looked like the bears would win, even pushing it below a support level, but either the bears were to weak to push through or the bulls stepped up. Out of nowhere a small squeeze happened that pushed the price 70 points up. Yesterday i mentioned we would probably get a break of this triangle within 24 hours, and from the looks of it, it might happen any minute now. Since resistance and support have been touched many times now, we can expect a big move happening on either side, somewhere in the range of 400/500 points. This would mean a price around 6000 or a price around 7200. If the bears win, a break of 6300 might already be the trigger for a much bigger push down in to the 5K levels, don't expect the 6000 will hold. For the bulls on the other hand, there might still be resistance even if they break up. I still think the 6800/6900 will be the biggest challenge for the bulls. So i would like to say all the resistance above that level will be a formality, but the bears have shown so much control the past months, better not to underestimate them.

Whatever happens, lets just hope we get some real movement soon, because this is starting to frustrate bears and bulls.


Previous analysis:

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There is fight going on now, no doubt. I see the bullish exchanges trying to push up (with low volume thought) and i see sell pressure on Bitmex which is almost looking like distribution. Just not sure about it.
Bulls and bears are really pushing it though, there is no more room left in this triangle, in the bigger one of the primary chart there is more room though.

So still a coin flip at the moment.

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So a tiny squeeze on the bullish exchanges, but Bitmex is not even blinking.

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Welcome to crypto :)

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In case your wondering where the updates are, well, what's the use. Still nothing real happening. Bears have the advantage at the moment and it's dropping a little bit now. But still no real support levels that have been broken. Needs a break of 6400ish before some continuation of a move. Have been looking at the order of Finex the past hour, just amazing to see how it keeps repeating itself for hours in a row. The charts look much more bearish than bullish on the lower time frames, but that is not the first time the past week.

I really hoped we would get a breakout yesterday, but it seems the market is still not ready for it. Can't say anymore how much longer this can go on.

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Still looks like the market will look up the 6400/6450, which is the target of that possible wedge on the left. But it doesn't feel like the bears WANT to get it there. It's moving in slowmotion, so no conviction of the bears. Volume is very low, so it's not that there is allot buy buying power preventing the price to drop. Still since yesterday, on the lower time frame the highs keep getting lower which is bearish. Price is very close again at that support of this bigger triangle.

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Seems like the low we just made, was a bounce once again from that previous resistance line. Still not sure about it's a value, but it had several bounce though.
The current bounce can once again be failed attempt to move higher, unless that small trend line breaks but even more important, that 6650ish resistance needs to break for the bulls. This bounce up has no power so the chances are still there it will turn down again later.

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And again, the spread between the bitmex brother and the other has increase to 40 again, showing their intentions to push the market down again. The closed in to almost 20 after that jump up because the volume went up. It looked promising at first but as i mentioned above, the bounce had no power at all. There was a inverse H&S in the making, but because it went to slow it seems it has turned into another wedge indicating we might test the low again. Unless we see real price action and volume, instead of only bots trading, it will will remain like this with the bears being in favor

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So the wedge on Binance already reached it's target within a few minutes after my last update. I showed a little fractal in my previous analysis, showing some similarities of the previous 2 highs. I tried to zoom in a bit more and seems like the steps are even more similar than on first sight. Just had to share this one with you so you can see for yourself what you think of it. I do think the triangle from the chart above has more value than this, even though it's hanging on it's support and most likely to break, but it's still support so the fight is still not over. But Bitcoin had made yet another lower high which shows the weakness that is still in the current market. Only a push up above 6600ish could change things again, otherwise it will just be a matter of time.

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The price difference went up to 50 points almost again and each time this happened the Bitmex brother eventually won the small battle again and made the price drop again because the volume from the buyers was just too low each time. Repeating the same pattern over and over again. One thing that is bugging me, i just can help thinking there is a game plan here. Why would one keep on buying while seeing the spread go to 50 points again and each time the price just drops to a lower low. In the "fractal" these big price differences did not appear so big and clearly like they are now.

Open intrest on Bitmex went up the past few days from 680 to 747 mil, showing that new positions (long and short) have increased. So my thought is, a big move is being fueled at the moment, that's why it's probably moving so slowly. There is no other logical explanation that i can think of. We have already dropped out of the triangle from the primary chart, but no real acceleration down yet. This could still be just a retest of the former resistance though (which is completely normal).

I added another circle to this fractal, which shows we could still see that bigger wave down happen anytime again. The current bounce up is quite similar the the other one. So unless that yellow resistance break (around 6540 on Binance) we have to assume that we will see a similar move again. It would be crazy if it would make the exact same move.

I still can't say what the end game is here, but i doubt if there won't be a bear/bull trap first before taking the real direction.

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Bitfinex maintenance tomorrow for about 2 hours. We remember what happened last time when Bitmex had this. Within seconds that the maintenance started Bitfinex whales pumped the price to above 6800 and when Bitmex opened again, the liquidations had reached even 7150ish prices on Bitmex. This really can't be any good for the market, when the most bullish exchange of the past months will be offline for roughly 2 hours. From what i remember in the past, nothing happened with the price during maintenance of exchanges. But in those days Bitmex was not as big as it is now. I really don't know what can happen here and can't give any advice. Expect that having no position at all is probably the wisest choice. Unless you like to gamble of course. Maybe nothing happens, maybe the price crashes or even goes up, who knows. But first thought is, without Bitfinex and it's whales trading there, bitmex brothers will try to crash the price. I am not trading this because i don't like to gamble.

Part of the message from the Bitfinex website:


Bitfinex will be undertaking planned infrastructure maintenance on October 4, 2018 between 06:00 AM UTC and 18:00 PM UTC. The exact timing of the maintenance update will made public 30 minutes prior to the start of the update.

Traders should expect a service interruption of roughly 2 hours while this maintenance is being performed.


www.bitfinex.com/posts/286

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Made an update