dsgorthy
Long

Bitcoin (BTC) MA Death/Golden Cross Analysis (Part 3) ---> +14%

CEXIO:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello all! This is an extension of my previous analyses on wave trading CEXIO:BTCUSD             . I'm using:
  • 90-hour Moving Average
  • Basic Candles Techniques
  • Current Price and Volume
  • RSI

To clarify, I am long-term bullish about CEXIO:BTCUSD             but am looking to profit off of the waves that we're seeing now. My goal is not to identify the ultimate peak and the ultimate valley, but trade on strong indicators. This method has strongly outperformed the simple buy-and-sell as long as you are able to maintain some composure and trade only once when the MA crosses the price a bunch of times in a short period of time (see yesterday for what I mean).

We've completed the first full-cycle segment of the trade, the summary is posted below:

Segment 1

Segment 2
Trade active: As stated, we bought in at $9,750 after the MA leveled out!
Comment: Just to note, in two weeks, we've made 11.4% profit with respect to USD and 17% profit with respect to BTC. This can always reverse on us, but with a hard stop-loss at our MA for the next day, we won't lose much ground there. This is an awesome amount of profit for only a couple of trades!
Comment: Today has been a weird day in trading, we're definitely moving sideways. It's looking like people are unsure about BTC after the recent movement, and I'm not confident that it will go in either direction. Time will tell, but what I do know is that we're well above the buy-in and the RSI is pretty much right in the middle. The MA is nearly flattening out, which is a positive signal for us. Hopefully, tomorrow brings us a better idea about where we're headed!
Trade closed: stop reached: On a macro scale, I'm seeing a lot of bearish signs for BTC. (1) We're seeing the formation of a bear flag. While BTC has tested the top several times, it hasn't broken upwards. (2) On CEX I'm seeing a lot of buy order back up to around 6k, while the sells are slowly creeping down. (3) Note how the RSI has acted over the past couple of hours. You'd be locking in a loss if you bought on the oversold RSI and sold now. This is essentially normalizing the lower price, allowing it to fall further.

For these reasons, I'm exiting BTC in this long segment at 9.4k. I am taking a slight loss in order to protect myself from the downward slippage that I'm expecting.
Comment: We've got about $300 separation between the price and the MA right now. The slippage that I pointed out earlier was a precursor to another dip in price. I think selling at 9.4k was worth it because I'm seeing these bearish signs from BTC right now. I'll be buying back in on strategy when we meet our MA once again.
Trade active: After fees, I'm back in at about 9.4k. I've got a hard stop loss at 9.1k, I'll be in until then! I'll be disregarding the sell and buy at 9.4k for simplicity.
Comment: We're moving sideways within our channel here, I'm holding until we see one direction or the other.
Trade closed: stop reached: Look out below! My stop was triggered last night at 9.1k, locking in a loss here. I'll be closing out this post and tracking my short in another.
Comment:
Comment: Click on the above chart for the short tracking!
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