TradingShot

BITCOIN Is this trend-line setting up the tempo?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is something I came across while experimenting with the Channel Up that Bitcoin has been trading in since March 20th.

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On March 20th was the first peak, a significant development for BTC as it was the first bullish reaction after the dramatic March 12th collapse. As you see this was the first Higher High on a series of three Higher Highs all of which touched a (hidden) middle trend-line on the Channel Up which I believe holds the key to the underlying trend. This is seen in the lower part of the Channel Up, the Blue Triangle.

After that sequence of three Higher Highs was completed, a sharp rise followed above the underlying trend-line. This took BTC to the upper layer of the Channel Up, the Red Triangle. As you see, after that sharp rise hit the top of the Channel Up, a Higher Low was followed on the underlying trend-line. It is interesting that following this another two Higher Lows followed (3 in total) that touched the underlying trend-line. This means that (so far) within the Channel Up, this trend-line has made 3 contact points from below as Higher Highs and 3 from above as Higher Lows.

The pattern becomes more interesting if we look at the LMACD. All the price Higher Highs and Higher Lows of the two Triangles (Blue and Red) are on identical High Low formations on the LMACD. The chart is self-explanatory. This suggests that the two Triangles within the Channel Up are identical.

Does this mean that another sharp rise as on April 29th is next to take place? I assume if the underlying trend-line holds, there is a possibility. Do you think it will, or break the Channel Up downwards and start a new bearish medium term trend? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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Comments

TBH TS, I'm not too keen on using a 4H chart for setting a trendline that covers several months. Not saying it's not valid, just doesn't set well here as it is not keeping with the scope of time we're dealing with.

Right now bTC has made a bearish move below MA50 and has stuck there throughout the day thus far. The last couple days downward movement now also has the MA20 curving over the top and heading down towards the MA50 where it's not far from that bearish cross you spoke of a shorrt time ago. I'm all eyes on that! I'm setting up with a limit order on the average between the close on May 24 and the MA200 as it is today. May need to adjust that order but if it takes a sudden drop into that zone and pulls back up quickly hopefully I'll get filled. It could go lower too then I'd have bought in too high, but either way it's going to go back up far beyond that in time anyhoo.
+3 Reply
TradingShot cosmicnexus
@cosmicnexus, Always a joy reading your perspective Nexus. I guess this week will tell us.
Reply
Agreed!
+2 Reply
TradingShot Phi-Deltalytics
@Phi-Deltalytics, What an excellent display of fundamentals blended with technicals! I am impressed!
Reply
Phi-Deltalytics TradingShot
@TradingShot, thank you. ))
Reply
Good points. I think there could be one more short term wave up before an intermediate term correction. Or the correction could come without such wave up - the EW wave count is tough to decipher in this case. In either case, I think BTC needs to pullback for a few weeks to reset in order for the next big wave to take place.
+2 Reply
@moon4yu, Thanks. Where do you see this correction going to?
Reply
How did I miss that trendline!? Haha great analysis as always. Looks like BTC is on a knife edge at the moment deciding which way it'll break
+2 Reply
TradingShot Barr0telli
@Barr0telli, True. It is a critical week this one.
Reply
always like your charts
+2 Reply
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