A follow up on the previous analysis and the updates i did since. I showed a small bearish wedge (yellow triangle on the right) a few days ago, which was forming inside of the bigger one (black lines on the right). Since last week i kept saying that the key zone for the bulls to break is 60kish, where resistance would start from the 58k zone as talked about in the previous analysis. Yesterday the small yellow wedge broke and i gave the 55k and 53k as support zones. After it seemed that bulls were holding it, and a retest of the wedge was becoming more likely, the basic resistance of the retest was 56/56.5, but as i mentioned yesterday, knowing the fomo in the market, it could even do an extended retest up to 58Kish.
Today i updated the support zone a bit, because things change while price moves. Where i had the 55 and 53 as support zones, which of course still have some value, now it looks as if that thick red line below might be a more important one short term, which is moving around 54K. I also mentioned, that the range is probably 58K and this 54K, with 56/55.6k being the middle line between the two. While writing this, this middle line seems to be breaking, at least getting tested. Not really dropping through it yet, so maybe i am wrong about this short term level, but could still happen.
The chart here below, we can see very similar movements. Where we had a big high and a big drop afterwards, then creating like a very ugly inverse H&S with very extended retests of the neckline. The on the left, we can see, that it eventually rallies. While this time, at a similar spot, it simply fails to break up, finding a lot of resistance. So one thing which is not in favour of the bulls.
Then the things i talked about in my previous analysis, the big ABC correction, also still in full play. The B wave, started as my number 1 scenario, but eventually turning into the number 2, which you can still see below. Number 2 showing a more sideways, channel like movement. It's not a great channel, but at least something to look at as well.
The chart above, primary chart, the big triangle on the left. Is another realistic scenario as well. Which would mean, that even if we drop coming week or so, as long as 50/51k holds, chance will still be there that all of this might turn into a big triangle. As you can also in that same (weekly) chart, a weekly close above 62K (in theory 60K, but think would be too tight), would/should be a big win for the bulls. Here and there i still hear some people about the bear market has started already, but i think that is wayyyyyyy to premature to say that. As long as we do not see a big fast dump, within days, through the 30/28K zone, i so no reason (except guessing) to say that the bull trend has ended already. The market is still in super hype mode, people are still bringing in their money. So even if this market would be one big joke, even if whales are trying to cash out at these highs. As long as they can see that money is pooring in at these highs, they will continue to let that money come to them instead of dumping the price.
My big picture, even if my big ABC plays out, meaning a potential drop towards 30/40K, i still think there is a good chance that we might still see another rally for Bitcoin later this year. I don't dare to say that for alts, because there is way too much garbage (once again) floating around in this market. The exit scams will increase again, the crap/worthless coins are increasing again. So this will, just like the ICO market did in 2018, damage the confidence in this market. Why i think that the Alt market, won't simply make another big rally after a big drop (assuming it will happen). The other day i saw that we 9500 coins/tokens, while in 2018 i think we had around 1500. So do the math about how much shit is out there now. Just unbelievable how people simply put there money in this crap. Funny, how the most inexperienced people i meet in real life, who never traded, just started for a month or so, are only talking about the most hyped coins that are worth complete nothing.
So short term, think 54K is an important level, then second i think 51kish a support level as well. On the upside, 58k is the resistance now, above that the 60K zone. But as i described past week or so, even if the 60K breaks, there is still a chance for a failed break out. So think we really do need to see 62/63K break as well.
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Previous analysis:
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There you have it, the ABC played out pretty damn nicely if i say so myself ;). The drop we had was too big, to think we can simply go up from here again without doing a test of the lows. Meaning, think minimum of 46/7 should be touched again at some point before a rally can start again.
The ABC normally isn't complete though, so i personally think we should get bit lower even coming week. I don't have a target level, but somewhere between 40k and 42k would make most sense. So actually something like the chart here below.
We can also that there is still a decent chance it might go up first before doing the drop. Anything below 53K is still danger zone to me, maybe up to 54K, but 53K is more like the key level short term on the upside.
There is a scenario i have in mind, just a theory, but a realistic version i think for the coming weeks. This would suggest we don't drop below 44/43, so also not in the 30K levels as mentioned 2 days ago. Would look something like this:
Which says all of this is just a consolidation, and not so much a big shake out.
So 53Kish is an important zone to look at short term, on the downside, think we should make a new low coming week, but how far it will go is the guessing part
Years later...still providing good, understandable analysis for both sides (bull/bear). Not saying where it will go, but what those alternatives are likely to mean or where price is likely to react.
As always, well-done sir.
botje11
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@OraCloudPlusInc, Thank you :), Good to see people who do understand the value of that
momo034
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Thanks @botje11 for sharing. you mentioned all the garbage Alt coins floating around, no doubt true...It would be great if you could share with your followers, here in the comments or a new post, which alt coins you believe will have lasting growth potential. Not necessarily as an analysis (Although I would be curious to see your analysis of them as well), but would just be curious to hear which alt-coins you think are NOT garbage and that have good long-term growth potential. Just an idea. Thanks!
botje11
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@momo034, That's not an easy job, i am not the crypto fundamental guy, but i could give it a try. I could of course do some TA on a few. Will try to do some coming week or so
momo034
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@botje11, That would be cool! I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on it precisely because you are not really a crypto-fundamental guy. I'll look forward to the post! Take care.
majormajor
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Hi David, great to see you charting again:). Thank you!
Nice analytic chart, seems 40K is upcoming ..
Thank you for the alert, Now I'm waiting to buy low again..
botje11
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@Swords_Rex, Your welcome, was almost there already. Normally, should not be over already
Pro_Trader_HTBB
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Only people selling BTC are exchanges, its how they make most of their profits by liquidating their customers.
I doubt we see 40k but hey it is BTC and who knows how far the dirty exchanges will push it lower.
The weekly MA21 is support on any bull market and BTC just touched it an hour ago. If it closes below the MA21 then yes 27k will be hit and this bull market is dead.
As always, well-done sir.