Just to name a few, have fundamental valuation, They own assets, have business plan projections and small percentage 2-3% volatility can cause a bad day on the stock market while 60% drops in crypto is a normal occurrence, Which can lead to account destruction. I've read lots of fundamental and technical analysis on this website... The best advice I would give to anyone that is new to cryptocurrency is to stop reading all this bullshit on TV.com. There is so much garbage charting going on in tradingview.com it can cloud your judgement. Learn to make your own decisions on trades based on your research and knowledge of the market. Do not listen to idiots charting, I would say only 2-3% of people on tradingview.com actually have ever owned one full Bitcoin. Your dealing with people that do not back up their trades with their money. They just find charting fun and have no repercussion for the ramifications of their suggestions to other amatures.
Here is what we need to understand ,In cryptocurrency the price of the coins you are trading are dictated by you the user/trader. The more people trade the more people sell into the market the more demand the lower the price goes. Thus people have created the 'hodl' routine. Which is in my opinion completely dumb at certain points of when even the hodlers should be unloading. I spoke to a few of my friends when bitcoin was around 18kish approaching 20k. I was scaling out my orders at the time and had interest in knowing what other users in crypto are doing so I started asking people where they thought the price of bitcoin would go, They would all respond with 'higher" my response was that bitcoin has moved a total of 1000% how much higher do you think it will go, and they would respond with 'higher'.... This type of mentality is the mentality of the herd, this is probably why you've heard the saying over and over, the bulls make money the bears make money, the pigs get slaughtered.. or in this case the sheep get slaughtered. For someone who just purchased at 10K and has seen their money double, they are too euphoric to sell and find no reason to sell as they just want it to go higher and higher. which brings me to the next phase..
This is the current phase.
The current phase of the market is where the smart money have been shorting from the top, the smart money would short against their positions close when the bottom was reached. This was at around the 6k area previous bottom, and this gave us a near 100% bounce from the lows. Giving the whales an excellent opportunity to buy and sell and quickly double their money. But now, as you can see in the past few weeks that the market has been stagnant and sideways not giving us clear direction, this is terrible for any market as the bears nor the bulls can successfully trade. Therefore we must sit on the sidelines and wait for clear indications to put on trades, also cutting the trades off quickly to avoid all the massive resistance above. In order for the market to find its footing to lift of and start reaching for new ATH it needs to completely resolve itself in the daily chart. So this brings me to the next moment.
The following chart that I have drafted is a very simple longer time frame chart, that can give us an idea of what is happening in the market to be able to evaluate where we stand and where we are going. We have lower and higher support lines and everything that is happening in between. Right now we are flirting with danger, and the previous low of $7250 was a very dangerous area, if breached we will certainly take the next leg down, which in my opinion will be the final let down this is an area where lots of money will start flowing into the market and will give us the needed momentum to break out of the top. The trick is that we cant drop down there right away, It has to take time because the quick the price drops the lower the supports are and the lower the price will fall.
Thank you
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Just an update, I've made a bunch of mistakes writing this had to run out and was doing this on the fly. Hope no one gets too confused.
theres a saying by one of the most successful traders and it goes like this " markets are completely unpredictable and the money is made by discounting the obvious, and betting on the unexpected" I would say that what you have drawn here is the completely obivuous, and you should discount it completely, and bet on the unexpected.
@TheCryptAlpha, no i would not say to the moon just yet. what is happening , is BTC is building a base that will set up the next Bull cycle. a normal tight range for the next 30-60 days would be the 8-10k area with possible breaks above and below these levels.What is happening is he is forming another J curve that is on the S curve of full adoption. So this base he's forming now is the bottom of the J. Bull resumes after the base is completed
TheCryptAlpha
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@jlhequities, You may want to go educate yourself on some basic technical analysis. You probably bought @ 16k and are waiting for BTC to get back to your entries. Good luck with that J S Z E B curve your talking about. Sounds ridiculous...
jlhequities
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@TheCryptAlpha, No friend, I did not buy at 16k, that would be about the same intelligence level of someone who would go short between 6-8K. Educating myself is something I have done my entire life and is really all that i do, So props for producing 1 good idea idea. it honestly doesn't matter to me if you think what i say is rediculous or not. Build as big a short as you can, put all you got into it. I will certainly enjoy squeezing you while you push the price up on my BTC up.
@jlhequities, is it the obvious? The driving forces are new people that never experienced a bear market. There are so many super bulls and believers, thinking they have frontrun banks and institutions. History suggests they are never right. Also I see a chance where you might be right, but so far I don't see any signals and the odds aren't looking good. Well if it happens I hope to get long though. Gl anyways
jlhequities
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@macrobear, Brother the only thing thats buying right now is smart money. all the buying of the these dips are not traders nor are they retail noobs coming into they market. They come out at new highs. Traders buy, see its going a little lower and dump what they just bought. smart money and longterm holders are in accumulation. What most people call "Bear Market" is when institutions are accumulating. once the inventory is all sold from everyone thats going to sell, then demand will out weigh supply. Thats all this market is, supply vs demand. here is an institutional accumulation pattern laid out perfectly on Bitcoin
jlhequities
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@TheCryptAlpha, for your educational purposes, i have drawn out the J's that are going up the https://Shttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MT3abrwX/
TheCryptAlpha
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@jlhequities, My man, stop embarrassing yourself with your J theory, Its non-sense.