It's been a rocky (and likely stressful for those who are not properly hedged against negative BTC price movement) few months for crypto, but here's my take on the situation for BTC/USD
So there's some good news and bad news, and neutral news.
Bad news first: There's definitely more to go, we haven't completed the cycle just yet and smart money knows a better entry point is incoming.
Now the good news! The end of the cycle is in sight.
In neutral news: We can predict this cycle because we're almost completely done with it, but we have no indication of what the next cycle will bring. My belief is that it will be a generally bullish but highly volatile period as smart & big money enters near the bottom, shakes out retail, forms new local tops/bottoms, shakes out retail again, rinse, repeat, until we see a bullish confirmation (listed in point 3.)
Why do I think the bottom is not in?
1. Oscillators indicate a very strong continuing bear trend on 1D, 12H, 6H. It does appear to be slowing in momentum, but not price direction.
2. Money Flow Double Top: This indicates that traders were as interested in BTC @ $40k as they were at $35k. Although a drop in capital inflow (MFI) indicates retail traders are at the whim of market conditions (aka. continuation of trend to cycle completion) it also means there is a lack of capital to reverse the current trend. New capital at a bottom is a prerequisite for a reversal.
Cycle Completion: Cycle completion for any "mature" (blue-chip) asset generally occurs at the average closing price upon which the current meta-trend was realized (confirmation in Jan 2021 that close above 2017 ATH was "real", allowing capital to safely enter the market.
3. A trend reversal that continues to close up through $31k past $34k without closing below $31k during the time of that trend. Would a) invalidate the current projection, and b) provide confirmation that capital can safely enter the market for positive gains.
So there's some good news and bad news, and neutral news.
Bad news first: There's definitely more to go, we haven't completed the cycle just yet and smart money knows a better entry point is incoming.
Now the good news! The end of the cycle is in sight.
In neutral news: We can predict this cycle because we're almost completely done with it, but we have no indication of what the next cycle will bring. My belief is that it will be a generally bullish but highly volatile period as smart & big money enters near the bottom, shakes out retail, forms new local tops/bottoms, shakes out retail again, rinse, repeat, until we see a bullish confirmation (listed in point 3.)
Why do I think the bottom is not in?
1. Oscillators indicate a very strong continuing bear trend on 1D, 12H, 6H. It does appear to be slowing in momentum, but not price direction.
2. Money Flow Double Top: This indicates that traders were as interested in BTC @ $40k as they were at $35k. Although a drop in capital inflow (MFI) indicates retail traders are at the whim of market conditions (aka. continuation of trend to cycle completion) it also means there is a lack of capital to reverse the current trend. New capital at a bottom is a prerequisite for a reversal.
Cycle Completion: Cycle completion for any "mature" (blue-chip) asset generally occurs at the average closing price upon which the current meta-trend was realized (confirmation in Jan 2021 that close above 2017 ATH was "real", allowing capital to safely enter the market.
3. A trend reversal that continues to close up through $31k past $34k without closing below $31k during the time of that trend. Would a) invalidate the current projection, and b) provide confirmation that capital can safely enter the market for positive gains.