This is a very interesting time in all markets and people seem to be more confused than ever on whats in store for crypto in 2022.
The ongoing war in Ukraine is a devastating conflict that will likely affect the global markets for months to come. As seen on Thursday, Biden's speech provided an immediate jump for US stock markets along with the crypto markets.
BTC still rules 99% of the crypto markets and can be relied upon as a valid indicator.
The blue line is the 50 week MA and I decided to start this post with some simple, yet effective. Anytime BTC has broken under the 50W MA, prices have fallenat least -50%.
This has also marked the beginning of the end of the bear market. In the current case, time has only been a few months.
Enjoy the rest of this post as it is filled with metrics not seen often!
Please comment & like!
CONTINUED:
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This simple chart tells much of a story (adding one to the first chart above)
The blue are 50 EMA & MA The purple are 100 EMA & MA The green are 200 EMA & MA
The blue layer has now been lost for the first time since the COVID crash.
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While looking at just the 50W EMA & MA, we can see it retested the zone as resistance for the first time in over 3 years.
In addition, the RSI has broke and retested a trend it has held since the bottom of the COVID crash.
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Anytime BTC has closed a 1 month candle below the 15 month MA, it dropped at least -47% from the breaking point. it has occurred 4 other times in history. if this is the case, BTC may need to land around 22k-25k before starting another strong bullish trend.
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1 month RSI looks to have broken the uptrend started at the 2019 low of $3,300. Each time the RSI has had a massive spike over the 70 value, it has needed to reset by swooping under the 50 value for a couple months.
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The length of the this "presumed" bull run is already much longer than the previous 2.
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1 Month LMACD (logarithmic) had a bearish cross after 64K was first hit and has been heading towards the bottom trend since. This would complete 3 touches in history on each trend.
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The 1 Month MACD just had its first bearish cross since the COVID crash.
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BTC transactions fees seem to show bear markets.Right after fees break the uptrends formed throughout the bull market, price reverses.If you look to the current, we are just missing the second vertical line which always comes in at a lower low.
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Every long term low is marked with the SOPR flash crashing to at least 0.93-
If you look now, we have the lower highs as in the past but we are missing a flash crash to at least 0.93-
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Using the stock to flow ratio, we can see this shade of green has occurred two other times in history and BTC fell -50%+ afterwards. The shades are based on the time since the last halving and this shade of green occurs around the 620-650th day since the previous halving.
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Thanks for reading!
Love to hear thoughts in the comments!
Are you still bullish for this year?
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The TA and data throughout this thread showed what was coming. The market has fallen and fully entered the depths of a bear market. Has it bottomed? Not enough data to back that thought.
Its better to show up late to the party than to show up at the wrong one...
In the daily time frame it looks like the price will go up because there is a confluence of 2 supports.
traderview2
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@MarsSignals Thanks for sharing! i can surely see a retest of 45k
MarsSignals
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Great chart
Eloquent
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Love all of the data man, thank you for your work.
I 100% agree with what you're thinking here. A lot of people are expecting btc to just miraculously recover and fly to ath's like it has in the past; and while i do think this is still possible, i also think we have at least a couple more months of consolidatory price action before anything of this nature could take place. The larger frame oscillators need some time to cool off after such an awesome run last year, and that's precisely what's going on - all of this chop is healthy for btc's future.
It's totally possible we swoop down to the mid \ low 20's before this correction is done with, that would be a magnificent area of pick some up for a longer term swing 💸
traderview2
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@Eloquent, Thanks for reading and commenting! You put that amazing. I am impressed by the simple explanation and yes, i think 1 more nice size drop to mid \ low 20's will be the best setup we could ask for! then i feel very comfortable to buy and really hold during that next "wave"!
DU09
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I agree we may need to go lower, but the chart is turning bullish on daily. Maybe a relief rally?
traderview2
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@DU09 You’re comparing day charts to my one month charts
traderview2
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@DU09 thanks for sharing! i think some relief rally’s or dead-cat bounces Can be in play the next month, if they occur
Coinmojis
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I have never seen an idea in which explained so much about BTC.