VaidoVeek

BITCOIN - A Little Overview!

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Again, I would like to give some confirmation areas, lately those are worked out pretty well - as on my last idea post, I pointed out one consolidation area around 5k, the price made a breakout upwards, it got a candle close confirmation and the BTC price reached into the first target which was the recent high at $5,345, so, a pretty nicely worked opportunity.

After every day, after every hour, we get more data around the 5k level and this is great because we need history to read out some patterns and areas which should work and which not.
Currently, we have an ascending channel , or at least we can draw it. The bottom trendline is set but the upper trendline is a bit subjective but still, I can set it pretty clearly from the 2. April high.

At the moment, the channel middle line works perfectly as a resistance, two times it has got a rejection from it and if it breaks then we can add it easily into our bullish confirmation list:
The bullish movement should be confirmed after the 1H candle close:
- above the channel middle line (red)
- above the recent high (2019 high)
Let's say a candle close above $5,355, needed is the 1H candle close but perfect would be 4H candle close!

There are some minor targets but can't predict any higher targets than the 2018 July low at $5,777. Overall, the area around $5,800 should act as pretty strong resistance.

Okay, a bullish confirmation area is set but for next - bearish confirmation areas.
As said, the channel middle line has worked nicely as resistance and if it gets a bigger rejection from the current levels then first bearish confirmation may come from altcoins. Look what they do, and if they start to go averagely below -2% to -3% (Daily) then prepare for the next bearish confirmation. The next bearish confirmation should come after the candle close below the ascending channel . Yes, it is pretty far but there are some minor support levels before it and can't give any bigger confirmations above that, above $5,120.
So, a bearish confirmation comes after the 1H candle close below the ascending channel . Rising Wedge is ascending and it is a bearish pattern and so as ascending channel but it triggers after the breakout!!


Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You!

Have a nice day,
Best regards!


*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!

Previous analysis:
Comment: We have that first sign from altcoins, they start to make a little throwback and so as BTC.
Currently, we are not in the confirmation area but the price has started to approach it:
Comment: Currently, the price has started to approach that bearish confirmation area. Now, the area is a little bit higher because of the ascending channel but the bearish confirmation area is a candle close below $5,125 and the criteria:
- Break below the ascending channel
- Break below the recent support
- New short-term lower low
Definitely, watch out, altcoins are on the minus side and a possible correction downwards may occur!
Comment: ...we need a candle close (at least 1H) to confirm it because there are some support levels which may hold the price - channel bottom trendline, recent support levels and etc.
Comment: On the higher timeframe, we have seen several rejections from the bottom trendline at $5,200 and on the lower timeframe, we have an inverted head and shoulders pattern which has made a breakout upwards so, pos. signs from there:

Comment: New BTC Analysis:

Regards!
keep in mind that btc can drop to complete its previous pattern target

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We should have it in mind that BTC may drop at any time to complete this potential missing wave 4 before final leg up.
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Nice and simple presented.
+1 Reply
MA and EMA 50 1W BIG resistance!!
bulls insist on something unusual!
I'm 1000% sure the bulls will be defeated in this war, and Bitcoin will soon see the 3000 level, I've said that a week ago when all talk about 6000 level!
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If it goes up, it will go up, if it goes down, it will go down... Hmmm, :thinking_face:
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@alskdj, well there are people who when they go up then open a short :):). Each one proposes a different idea. I really like this idea.
+1 Reply
alskdj FXtrai66
@FXtrai66, I like it too. It's clean, makes sense and no voodoo involved.
+1 Reply
@alskdj, ehehe...as You see there are confirmation areas - do not sell on the channel and do not buy when the price is lower then the channel mid trendline. Currently, there are no trade setups, that’s why are the confirmation areas!
All the best!
+3 Reply
alskdj VaidoVeek
> do not sell on the channel and do not buy when the price is lower then the channel mid trendline.

@VaidoVeek, It's almost exact opposite to how I trade :) It's a trend. I like to ride the trend.

I think you chart is a really good example why diagonal lines and corridors can be (probably not by the pro) misleading and can keep "you" out of the market for no reason. :)

Here are my trade areas (I trade XBTEUR so those are not exact but close enough)
I keep margin low, 3x is max. No "all in" BS etc. Hardest part is not to get greedy.

Have fun and do not get stopped out.
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@alskdj, Hey! I'm more reversal trader than breakout trader but to make a good reversal or breakout trades then we have to get confirmations from higher timeframes, etc. and yes, we are different because You trade on the consolidation period. Maybe small wins here and there but You have to be strong and your stop losses have to be perfect do not stop You out.
To me, this area is full of crap (a lot of noise) and to make good trades we need more than one criteria matching together examples:
Breakout trade, multiple signs:

Reversal trade:

All the best!
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