When you draw lines in such a large time-frame it's necessary to be very precise and watch the details. Here is my version drawing the lines only using the candle bodies and not using sometimes the candle shadows and sometimes the candle bodies.
You can see that Bitcoin is in a downtrend since May 2014 (blue line) and that the very large uptrend since 2012 has not been broken, yet. That could only happen between January-March 2015.
GWaves
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Thank you for the feedback! When drawing lines the way I did, one starting at the body of the candle connecting to the shadow of another candle, does that invalidate the trend line? Could I draw such trend lines in a smaller timeframe say the H4?
ChartArt
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"When drawing lines the way I did, one starting at the body of the candle connecting to the shadow of another candle, does that invalidate the trend line?" Common knowledge is to either connect all trend lines with the candle shadows or to connect all trend lines with the candle bodies, but not to mix both approaches.
I also never draw trend lines, because as you can see with this single example two people easily came to two different conclusions and you don't know what the rest of the market thinks. Doing so in a 4 hour chart is even more risky, if you ask me.
The only trend lines I 100% obey to are horizontal support and resistance lines using the lowest low and highest high price, and if you want to be 120% safe to see the same uptrend or downtrend as everybody, then use candle bodies and not shadows to draw these horizontal lines. I then mainly use bars not candles (equal to OHLC on BitcoinWisdom).
GWaves
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I will keep this in mind as I continue to develop my skills. I am beginner in the technical analyses world so feedback is always welcome. Thank you sir.
ChartArt
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I'm also a beginner and I'm still learning and can only tell you what I learned myself so far the last months while trading (and not reading books). Here is what I mean with the horizontal lines. If you pick the right lows and highs a breach of those lines represent very hich chances that the trend will continue in the direction:
ChartArt
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I shared this chart and tradingview.com/u/Daedalus/ said the sell line is risky (and I have to agree). The following low line would have less risk, because it's a stronger pivot price point. These are maybe not trend lines, but important price areas to watch:
ChartArt
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And then other people see this using other lines.... that's why I never draw lines and instead rely on indicators.
GWaves
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I am currently learning about Fib Ratios and how to accurately use it in circumstances as the one above. I find that to be the most accurate method of determining entry and exit positions. Each trader, of course, has a different method of determining that. I also do not use trend lines to trade as they indeed are not the most reliable sources to trade off of. Instead I use multiple methods and cross reference to solidify a trade.
GWaves
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Can I for example connect a shadow to a shadow?
MoonTrader
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Yes, you can, and people often do. There's nothing wrong with drawing trendlines. While they may sometimes be very subjective, they can also sometimes be good indicators. The idea behind trendlines is that they serve as a general directional barrier for the price. If it crosses that barrier, then it must mean the market is beginning to push the price in the other direction. As always, though, they are not 100% effective and you need to watch them in conjunction with the volume to decide if a technical break is really a trend change.
You can see that Bitcoin is in a downtrend since May 2014 (blue line) and that the very large uptrend since 2012 has not been broken, yet. That could only happen between January-March 2015.