user100000
Long

long term chart

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1515 20 8
the price action is no longer contained within the channel as you can see. that means the correction was a higher degree wave. i also had an invalidation of my wave 4 so this isn't a wave 4 correction any longer but a wave II (bigger degree) correction.

according to rules and guidelines of elliott wave principle wave three must never be the shortest wave so it should atleast be equal in length to wave I

using my windows calculator set to scientific you can calculate where wave I equals wave III             in length
e^(( ln             (1163)-ln(2.22))+ln(255))=
(1163 is the ATH             )
(2.22 is the start of wave I)
(255 is the recent low)

USD 133,587.83 per bitcoin
we have long way to go.

my previousious estimate of 7K to 10K is not correct because of the recent invalidation of wave 4 and realising the price action is outside the channel hinting at a higher degree (wave II)
MoonTrader
2 years ago
But you think we've reached the bottom, correct?
Reply
user100000 MoonTrader
2 years ago
yes 100% confident
+5 Reply
edwinrosero user100000
2 years ago
How many months will it take to reach the peak of Wave 3?
Reply
user100000 edwinrosero
2 years ago
"How many months will it take to reach the peak of Wave 3? "
future wave 3? i don't know. im watching what happens around march 27
Reply
Qiuness user100000
2 years ago
QQ: Does'nt this look like an unfinished elliot wave? http://i.imgur.com/BaIUD90.png
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Noobincrypt PRO Qiuness
2 years ago
3 cannot be the shortest wave so that cant work... i think
Reply
user100000 Qiuness
2 years ago
"QQ: Does'nt this look like an unfinished elliot wave?"
i believe wave 5 was an ending diagonal. rules are the 5th wave must be the shortest wave. should be shorter than 3rd
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MoonTrader user100000
2 years ago
Hold on a second. I thought I remembered you saying that you thought wave 5 would be longer than usual to make up for the "short" wave 3? How does an idea like that go with "wave 5 must be shortest"?
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user100000 MoonTrader
2 years ago
5th wave of an ending diagonal has limits. max length of 5th must not be greater than 100% of 3rd. so it should be equal to 3 or less than 3 in length

if it's a normal impulse wave. wave 5 can extend no probelm as long as wave 3 is larger than 1
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Unapologetic_Capitalist PRO user100000
2 years ago
I think we're still finishing wave 5, with the current rally ending around 1756 Yuan ($287 USD).
BTCCNY - Zoom in: Bull Trap Before Major Move Down
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Unapologetic_Capitalist PRO Unapologetic_Capitalist
2 years ago
I think we'll hit the bottom at around 1390 Yuan ($226) to finally complete wave v of 5 of C and start the cycle to an ATH.

My detailed calculations can be found in my description in my second chart:

BTCCNY - Zoom out:  Bottom is Near (in time)
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user100000 Unapologetic_Capitalist
2 years ago
of course it depends on where you think wave 5 started. i believe the correction is over because of the ending diagonal pattern and at same time the DXY is topping. bitcoin and dxy negatively correlated for a while
Reply
Unapologetic_Capitalist PRO user100000
2 years ago
You are correct that it depends on where one thinks Wave 5 started.

At this point, for a general confirmation/invalidation:
My count would be invalidated if price goes above 302 on BTC-e / 1797 on BTCCHINA.
Conversely, your count would be invalidated if price goes below 260 on BTC-e / 1578 on BTCCHINA.

The reason I think that wave 5 of C has yet to complete is based on the price action of the last Bitcoin price bubble in July 2013, which I've included a snapshot of with a red arrow designating where I think we are now relative to then.

snapshot
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Unapologetic_Capitalist PRO Unapologetic_Capitalist
2 years ago
I meant Bitcoin price bottom in July 2013.

Man, I need to go to bed but can't yet because futures are settling soon.
Reply
janos666 MoonTrader
2 years ago
Did you read this part?
"USD 133,587.83 per bitcoin
we have long way to go"
Reply
MoonTrader janos666
2 years ago
Thanks for your input. I'm sure it's well-appreciated by someone.
Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
BTCUSD, double support to be tested
-2 Reply
vortexspaces
2 years ago
hi! thx for your work! How about counting global waves with the older data from mt.gox? I like your charts, but can't understand why you don't consider gox data
Reply
user100000 vortexspaces
2 years ago
i looked at gox data from the start. i assume the 1st move up was the supercycle (I) peak and the correction was a supercycle (II). bitstamp & gox sync up at the lows. nothing has changed in longer term picture. market is trending higher because it is in a supercycle (III) wave. so far, market completed wave I and II. III is in progress
Reply
vortexspaces user100000
2 years ago
Ok, now i see your point on this! Thx! Keep on charting, always interesting to see new ideas )
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