BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
We have broken below 600 again ever since we did so in late June. This time was more intense and stronger than ever as it looks like we will end the candle off staying this way. Support levels 590 (strongly tested), 586, 557 and 534 are all possible zones for a battle if we happen to fall lower. Good possibility we either do that or continue sideways unless we get some good news, or random jitter from investors.

I am going to be looking at the weekly chart today since it was ChartArt who pointed out how the long term indicators weren’t doing so great. In fact, they are not in the best of spots. Ultimate Oscillator has not once broken through. At this point, nothing is following previous bubble cycles with respect to the indicators. When they should have been into the overbought stage right now they are instead falling. There is no news or anything positive that would catalyst us. Contrary to popular belief, the cycles need something to kick start them off. Either speculation, like China during the last bubble, or maybe just 10,000 new investors to the Bitosphere.

Indicators

PSAR – Bearish at this point, but it is getting closer. This week’s sudden fall did not help it, though. Unless we see 660 prices here soon I just don’t see it switching to BUY.
UO – If you try to extrapolate anything from the next indicators they will tell you it is not time for bubble. It is still possible for us to see OB             . However, without any good news, or some push above 660 I will expect it to remain in the general bull territory.
Stoch RSI + Stoch – In general are both in a downward swing. Going above 630 would really help it to go back on track into OB             .

More on my blog as I look back upon this week http://www.allbitcointa.cu.cc/2014/07/the-week-in-review-july-20-26.html
ChartArt
2 years ago
As you wrote: "Oscillators aren't following previous bubbles. This is new territory we are treading." This is exactly the same end-result of my research from this weekend. Most people are still thinking all is fine, but the longer we can't break above 700 US Dollar the more we face the problem of not being able to sustain the overall uptrend which lasted for years so far.

The long-term outlook is two fold. Either Bitcoin very slowly bleeds out like an altcoin, like e.g. Dogecoin (because we are since May, July 2014 the first time in a downtrend since the beginning of Bitstamp price data since 2012, according to some indicators). Or we get enough energy and new volume together to break out and then we will have a mega rally upwards similar and even more epic than in Winter 2013. But first we have to break out of this bad situation - like shown by the Ultimate Oscillator in your chart, where failing to go above 70 means we are heading lower after the double top.

Bitcoin has several hedge funds behind it and big things are on the roadmap, like the Xapo credit card for mainstream users and the launch of Circle, who will give away 10 Dollar to buy Bitcoin to every new person who signs up and startups like BitPay have now gotten enough venture capital funding to sponsor sport teams, therefore I still have some hope we get enough momentum together to start a new rally this year and don't die the slow sad death of an altcoin, but go to 2000 US Dollar this year.
+2 Reply
ItisCalvin ChartArt
2 years ago
Agree, it is a very really and scary possibility if we cannot maintain a simple uptrend. Good to see how your analysis follows along what I'm thinking. Reinforces the fact that this time isn't like the last.

There are a great many opps for us to take off. Something needs to happen within the next few weeks or we may have to call it bust. Indicators haven't fully weakened, but this is just unsustainable. I'll have to pull my Finex swaps so I can trade when I need to.
+2 Reply
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