We've all heard the news. Panthera capital says its time to fill our crypto coffers, as a rare buy signal has come about with the price below the 200 day EMA (now crossed). However, myself (and apparently many other analysts) still believe that BTCUSD is still to fully emerge from the woods.
Until we see gains above $11500, BTCUSD is under strong bear control.
Instead of boring you with indicator readings and TA errata, lets consider one important market fundamental:
If you were a large financial institution or hedge fund, would you be interested to buy BTCUSD at a marginal discount or at a rock bottom price? Does anyone think that $6500 was enough FOMO to attract institutional investors? If so, where is the money ?? It makes a lot more sense for "so called whales" to drive the price upwards and then collect all those pretty little bitcoins in pacman style after they ignite a massive selloff.
We don't hold any cards in this poker game and can do little other than placing side bets.
My thoughts are to stay in cash and when the time comes, swim with the whales ! The next 2 - 3 weeks will bear all (excuse the pun!) If (in the unlikely event that) I am wrong and the BTCUSD prices rises above $ 11 500, we've got little to lose on the road to 20K + !
Hope this post will be helpful to some.
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I'd like to explain my idea using a different approach. Let's consider Bulkowski's Descending Triangle:
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Please see my short term suggestion for the downward price move:
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Please see this idea to track short and long positions, which signals trend direction:
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Please see my Elliot Wave Suggestion for this idea. Kindly take note that I do not claim to be an EW expert. My interest is to prove the start of a descending wave.
@loa1975, "Buy in May" started like 300 years ago in London I believe..
UnknownUnicorn416662
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@arthax0r, I think it was “sell in May and go away”. The claim was that winter months yield lower returns than the summer (and with the underlying assumption that only the northern hemisphere is relevant to global equity markets). I suppose it’s as speculative as any other strategy, but not sure if I would pay credence to it!
UnknownUnicorn416662
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Please see this idea to track short and long positions, which signals trend direction:
CryptoKyle03
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I’ve been taking profits and agree with your idea, however it’s not going below 6800k.You will never see BTC at 5k ever again!
UnknownUnicorn416662
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@CryptoKyle03, Thanks for the comment. I appreciate your point of view!
iguana10
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Hi pseudomania, I am learning this market and have a question about the statement you made about the whales driving the price up and then igniting a sell off:
How do they drive the price up and how do they ignite a selloff?
And if they have previously done that and accumulated a lot of cheap BTC, why don't they let it ride up to the top again, attracting more buyers, so they can ignite a selloff then and make more money?
UnknownUnicorn416662
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@iguana10, The only information available to us (the trading community at large) about a digital asset is it's price, volume and news (fundamentals). Which of these do you have enough resources available to control? Probably none? Well, there are folks out there who do have these resources under their control to a greater or lesser extent. They have automated HFT (high frequency trading) systems, links to the press, experienced human traders and quants at their disposal.
It's possible to identify these strategies as they are often repeated in succession. Consider the famous Bart Simpson pattern. Pump - Consolidate - Dump (Repeated over and over). It's absolutely impossible to trade and technical analysis is completely useless.
While I cannot identify all of these strategies at all times, experience warns me when "untradable" and irrational market behavior abounds; and when TA has no value, that its likely as a result of market manipulation. Call it my gut feel rather than an implicit evidence based deduction. I cannot claim to know the minds or strategies of these groups / traders we refer to as whales.
Wanna try this at home ?? Yes .. you can be a whale too!
Find an almost worthless coin on a rubbish exchange, post large buy orders (relative to 24 hour trading volume) which you know are unlikely to execute, then start laddering in new buy orders at higher prices (which execute). Soon, it will seem like the coin is exploding and interested parties will follow your lead. When the desired price is reached, maintain it with buy / sell orders for several hours (or days as necessary) to allow buy orders to build up. As just the right time, kill your (large) buy orders and then dump your coins to produce a healthy profit. Heck, you could even do this in tranches. When everyone else has followed suit and dumped their coins at a loss, the opportunity for you to buy will once again present.
I realize this example is overly simplistic and may possibly fail due to it's simplicity, but it serves to demonstrate the point and answer your question. There are plenty of resources on the Internet which are able to teach you advanced pump and dump strategies.
Food for thought ...
Do you not find it strange in the slightest that crypto exchanges which are geographically remote, should respond to the price action of bitcoin almost in unison ? The market is like a well conducted orchestra at times!
iguana10
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@pseudomania, Thankyou very much for your response, I appreciate the depth you have gone to.
Yes, I have wondered how the different exchanges each have buyers and sellers at roughly the same time and same price?? I hadn't thought of the links that they must all have with each other and their automated systems that can respond immediately by injecting or withdrawing their own orders to influence the price. No one can say they can't hey, unregulated and all.
Being new to this game, I don't have the experience or history to have developed any "gut intuitions" yet and I am frustrated in not being able to see the logic in some of these whale moves. Aside from the broad end goal of making lots more extremely greedy, excessive money at the expense of others of course.
For example, these short squeezes that many say are happening. If the 'short' bets are mainly leveraged positions using someone else's BTC, or not even a real BTC but a price pegged to BTC, and there is a supposed concerted drive by many whales to get the price to rise, thereby stopping out the short bets, which they hope will crash the price so they can buy in again lower, is confusing.( if I've got that scenario correct in the first place!). To move the market up, they already bought major amounts at the cheap price and could have simply just bought more which in turn would drive the price up and attract more money into a rising markt, instead of all the trouble and increased risk they are exposing themselves to? There is no freeing up of BTC for sale if the short bets are leveraged or not even with real BTC? Writing this, ideas have come that may answer my own questions. Maybe I should stop thinking of whales as stocked up wealthy individuals, but rather the very organisations that have accepted those short bets. Maybe they don't want to let the price ride higher, attracting wider public and government involvement/scrutiny. They are making squillions down this lower end of the price range as is. But... if massive amounts of institutional money has entered or wants to enter this market and will be using the increasing number of regulated exchanges to make short plays too, they will not want to be getting stopped out and will do what it takes to prevent that.
I need to start investigating more about these "whales".
Once I figure that out, hopefully I (as everyone else is attempting to do), will start to see tell-tale patterns and get a feel for what may happen. It's fascinating looking at all the different ideas posted- the use & interpretaion of all the TA indicators, reading why these very experienced people think what do, the speculation about what's going to happen and all the re-buttles in the comments sections.