------------------------------- UPDATE (August 24) ------------------------------- Here is what happened so far this since my "Bitcoin is facing a larger correction" forecast 1 month ago. Since I said "I was bullish on Bitcoin until we breached the 610 US Dollar price area" Bitcoin fell down to $442.
------------------------------- UPDATE 2 (July 28) ------------------------------- The Bitcoin price is finally moving down (even without any major bad news) as predicted 17 days earlier. The last support is somewhere around here: $550 to $575: tradingview.com/v/ytvhmTtQ/
------------------------------- UPDATE 2 (July 17) ------------------------------- Since the fast rally from the last low at $608 failed around $625 to go above $630 and turned into a dead cat bounce, we are now back in the original larger correction which I forecasted before Update 1.
My new forecast after looking at more signals is that $600 is going to be a very critical price area. If we break below $595 we might see $550-$560 again. Worst case maybe even $500 as I posted here in my new chart: tradingview.com/v/HvkyjwBQ/ -------------------------------
------------------------------- UPDATE 1 (July 12) ------------------------------- I was partially wrong on this one. Since we are overall in a very strong uptrend the decreased Bitcoin price served as a welcome area for patient traders to now re-enter the market at a cheaper price - after they bought in the correction below 590 US Dollar and then sold at the previous peak around 645-655 US Dollar. I expected a larger buy back to happen, but starting at the psychological round number of 600 US Dollar with the risk that this area can't be supported and that we then break below 600 US Dollar. I didn't expect a massive buy back with full force at 608.5 US Dollar as it actually happened at Bitstamp & Bitfinex.
My forecast is that the Bitcoin market will stay above 600 US Dollar. -------------------------------
I was bullish on Bitcoin until we breached the 610 US Dollar price area. I see the next support somewhere around 575 US Dollar before the overall uptrend continues. I see this as a larger healthy pullback, not as a downtrend.
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UPDATE 2 (July 28)
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The Bitcoin price is finally moving down as predicted 17 days earlier (even without any major bad news, besides the news that Ecuador banned Bitcoin on July 25, 2014) . The current Bitcoin price is $580 (last Bitstamp low: $576) while I made the following screenshot. The support is somewhere around $500, $525, $550 to $575. We could even go below $500 if there is very bad news the next days. It's currently Monday, July 28, 2014.
MoonTrader
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I don't see how the uptrend can continue after we cross the long term trend line. It appears to have already been crossed, but a retrace to 575 would remove all doubt, and if that happens, I don't think we will see a significant uptrend.
MoonTrader
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Out of curiosity, does anyone think we can reach a new ATH after breaking below the LTL? I suppose it happened before the Gox bubble, but I see that as an un-developed trend. After it's been reinforced so many times, it's hard for me to see how we can break it without going into a bear market.
ChartArt
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We haven't crossed the long-term trend lines. We breached them in March 2014 and are back on track since May 2014.
MoonTrader
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So you don't think falling to $575 would cross that trendline and basically nullify all the progress since we topped out at $683? That would be extremely bearish behavior to me. But I'm a rookie, so what do I know?
ChartArt
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If we go below $550-$575 that would entirely nullify all the progress since the end of May. Above that area it's only a correction inside the uptrend. Especially if we would bounce of $600.
MoonTrader
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But you don't think that would violate the long term trend line? Every trend line I draw comes very close to where we are now. It may have been breached a few times, but those were only flash crash candle wicks. If we stay below 610 for any significant amount of time, that would call into question a long term bull trend for me. Thoughts?
Here is what happened so far this since my "Bitcoin is facing a larger correction" forecast 1 month ago. Since I said "I was bullish on Bitcoin until we breached the 610 US Dollar price area" Bitcoin fell down to $442. My short target was $500 (tradingview.com/v/HvkyjwBQ)
VERY NICE, i thought some would come, but you had it nailed. good work.
dovaboy
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yes it probably will correct, but only a cubby correction. it will charge hard around August once the impact of newer merchants is felt.
coindesk.com/online-retail-giant-newegg-now-accepts-bitcoin/ i definitly dont think your off. Its just that we crossed a bigger, tangible line with major merchant support. those numbers and vibrance havent resonated yet, when it does BTC will see 1K in a few months and probably 700$ Augustish
UPDATE 2 (July 28)
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The Bitcoin price is finally moving down as predicted 17 days earlier (even without any major bad news, besides the news that Ecuador banned Bitcoin on July 25, 2014) . The current Bitcoin price is $580 (last Bitstamp low: $576) while I made the following screenshot. The support is somewhere around $500, $525, $550 to $575. We could even go below $500 if there is very bad news the next days. It's currently Monday, July 28, 2014.