TradersForecast

BTCUSD analysis based on ToW proprietary indicators

Short
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Analysis (on the 2 day chart, the one in the middle):
  • The direction lines are crossing 0 down and mostly down indicating a down trend.
  • Additionally the red line in the bottom pane crossed the pink area again indicating a down trend.
  • The swing (purple) lines are relatively high, indicating being oversold (one the one-bar time frame).

On the 1 day chart some direction lines are crossing 0 up but the sing (purple) lines are a a previous high level where the price reversed before so given this and the 2 day chart analysis, I shorted BTCUSD .

"Like it" if you like it! Add your comments, questions or concerns if you have any.

Description of my Tug-of-War (ToW) indicators (named for the tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears):
  • The price moving up or down is usually correlated with the lines of my ToW indicator being above or below 0 (you can hover in the chart above over previous bars to confirm).
  • The green lines in the 2nd pane from the top and purple lines in the other panes are the swing line (it often swings up and down from one bar to the next around its moving average).
  • The rest of the lines are the direction lines (they show the expected direction or trend).
  • The ideal setup is for the trend to be one way (let's say on the up side of 0, preferably pointing up as well) and the swing line to be the other way (to be on the down side of its moving average, the red line). Thus the purple, swing line will likely swing back to be on the same side of its moving average as the trend lines are on the side of the 0 line (unless the trend breaks down). This is like buying during dips on a strong uptrend.
  • In addition to that I'm also looking for potential divergence between the top pane lines (ToW-D) and the price which may indicate a reversal.

DISCLAIMER: Security trading involves substantial risk of loss. My analysis is not trading advice. Do your own research first and/or consult a financial advisor. I'm not responsible for any losses you may incur following my analysis.
Trade active: entered short at 11,634.
Trade closed manually: Closed position at 11,479.
Comment: I had 2 separate legs with 2 separate stop losses. Based on those SLs I made 31% and 56.2% profit of the risked amount (the maximum possible loss based on the SL).
I published my ToW indicator as an invite-only script. Send me a PM for an invite and you can use it for free for the rest of the year. Algo w/ 700k% profit since 2012 in backtesting! Join free https://discord.gg/wDTkRnS or https://t.me/TradersForecast

Comments

Perfect timing as I have been doing some more digging trying to figure out how I want to handle my BTC position. I am leaning bearish in the short term and bullish in the long term. Now I will go check out your ETH TOW. Thanks!
Reply
@WTFpattern, very welcome! Glad if it works out for you. I made profit with the ETHBTC position going up and just closed with profit my second position going down. I also just closed BTCUSD with profit. This was a shorter term trade. BTCUSD went the way I predicted last time. So far so good! I trade more US equities (options) than crypto though. I just reviewed on options positions I opened since 7/27 I had 11 profitable options trades out of 15 (69% profitable trades) and a profit factor was 4.07 (for each 1% lost I made 4.07% profit)! Exciting!
+1 Reply
TradersForecast TradersForecast
@TradersForecast, BTW, I din't post an idea, just a signal in my venues, but I shorted BTCUSD again a several hours back at 11,750.
Reply
TradersForecast TradersForecast
@WTFpattern, FYI, I just closed my BTCUSD short at 11,576.
+1 Reply
Nice bro
Reply
TradersForecast Olutobi-Ogunsemore
@Olutobi-Ogunsemore, thanks, we'll see how it goes. I expect the move down to be a short term move.
Reply
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