For the purposes of this discussion, lets assume there is one or several people that work together (ie trading firm,pump group whatever) on finex.
So if one was in a position where he wanted to get out leveraged position and return to USD (for whatever ever) what would one have to do ? You would obviously sell, but how do you sell that big of a position, even with order book as full as bitfinex , without taking a serious loss ?
This is where the assumptions based on confirmed past events, narrative and possibly a bit of fiction comes in.
You would to create a series of events that buffers enough coin so that you could exit. Bags changing hands if you will. (since youre not concerned about manipulation charges since this market is unregulated) This costs money though - money which have you currently have tied up in a position. So first you have to exit some of your position (or cause an event that make people exit) by selling
1/8 -1/15 selling occured until 25,858,712 total margin was free or ~1.8 million dollar is freed up. That worked ok but you still have ~4.5 million locked up. Selling down further would potentially mean starting to take a costly losses to get out.
1/16-1/29 a serious of pump candles that were fully retraced the following day were drawn.
2/1 - 2/9 the final shaking of the branch happpens. The going equal almost that of going down exactly. No new lows made. But your margin position is now closed.
dollar margin usage is low
BTC is also low.
So what does this leave with TA wise?
- higher lows w/ a confirmed
- high time frame over sold
- 1W reset poised to cross up.
- plenty of margin available to long
- low over all (with the exception of the pump and dump candles)
- horizontal levels defended
Given this, when was the last time we saw something with simliar characteristics? Answer: 11/11 -11/24
- margin reach a low of 19,194,679
- margin reach a low before horizontal resistance would stop selling it down.
- high time frame oversold.
- higher lows w/ a confirmed
- 1W cross back up (after leaving the over bought range)
If this is indeed the same setup, it will likely happen with in the next 5-9 days.
Current price could close as low as 367.5 and still be valid.
A close below 360 would invalidate this theory. Support would be 350 at that point.
few other x factors worth mentioning
- btce has been 7-10 dollars ahead of finex this whole dump. finex has been leading.
- china 10-15 dollars ahead of finex.
- China barely follow the downward motion of finex and recovered way faster
- Chinese new years holiday concludes 2/12 - 2/13
- confluence of major around 2/12-2/14
last night ATH there was 23,589,181 long in margin out.. the current used is 21,593,915.taking the other candles in context. 1.5 million was spent in roughly 6 hours.. on a sunday evening asia time.
short actually did not go up all that much from previous days candles to here. ~2k btc btc usd in position.
there a pretty solid chance for continuation here.
disclosure i closed the original long 368-450.8 but am long after the 20 dollar drop.