Bitcoin appears to be in fifth wave extension style impulse wave. You can see that there have been five major waves since the low of March 2020, with the fifth wave obviously being massively extended. Fifth wave extension impulse moves almost always retrace to 61.8% of the fifth wave. Currently, that's at 22100. Building on the technical evidence for a breakdown to 22100, there is a possible head and shoulders formation that's currently being printed on the chart. It's more visible on the 1-4 hour timeframes, but it actually projects a fall to about 20000. Now, that pattern hasn't broken down below the neckline yet (roughly shown in pink on the chart) but if we do get a breakdown below the neckline, there would be a very high probability that BTC would retrace to the 61.8% level. Furthermore, every time BTC has taken out a major all time high from previous bull markets, it has retraced to the 20 week moving average on the chart. The 20 week MA is currently in the 18500 region, and would presumably be near the 61.8% retrace by the time BTC sold off to that level. Additionally, we can see that the daily MACD is only just starting to cross over bearish, and the weekly NVT is nearing a major sell signal. Adding more weight to the case, you can see that the bottom of the daily Bollinger band (light blue) is near the 618. Given that assets trade within the bands about 95% of the time, you can see that there is still a very real chance that BTC could retrace to the 22000 level or lower. Last but not least, you can see that several of the recent daily candlesticks have long lower shadows, which is indicative of an impending bearish reversal. So, there is overwhelming evidence here, to suggest that we are on the brink of a correction to at least the 22100 level.
***THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO MONITOR, IS A POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN ON THE 4 HOUR CHART. THAT WOULD SOLIDIFY THE TARGETED 22100 AREA IN THIS ANALYSIS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, THE TARGET IS NOT VALID.***
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
***THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO MONITOR, IS A POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN ON THE 4 HOUR CHART. THAT WOULD SOLIDIFY THE TARGETED 22100 AREA IN THIS ANALYSIS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, THE TARGET IS NOT VALID.***
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-