Btw, I repurchased 0.5 BTC expecting another ~10% bounce which I will sell. I might buy up to 1 BTC if it drops to ~22.6k again.
After the bounce, I expect a sharp decline into March which I will buy hand & fist with all my sidelined cash.
Expecting a rally into June ~$30 - 35k.
I will sell that June peak and wait for a significant market drop. Then I will buy gold and hold until the crash I expect in Q1 or Q2 2024. I will sell the gold and buy Bitcoin ~10k in 2024 and hodl for $60+k in 2025.
I'm buying this dip. This appears to be the BU/SOS phase of a textbook Wycoff accumulation (school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method) pattern. About to enter Phase E with a rocket launch to 30k? Other possibility is that the SOS/BU has turned into a smaller Wycoff distribution with UT completed but a possible higher high UTAD incoming before a further pullback into the $20 - 21k region (to form the right shoulder of a bullish, inverse H&S). Either way it makes sense to dollar cost average into some here below 24k. Not likely that price is headed back below 19.5k until 2024 and after a significant rally sometime before July.
JerryManders
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@shelby3, you're right it is accumulation. I use wyckoff in my analysis I just don't go into detail in my posts
shelby3
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@JerryManders, My comment on the following linked video:
Correct, the Fed will surprise with 50 basis points in March, but this will only provide a pullback not a crash, because the market is pricing in the pause in May. Historically there is a final rally when the Fed pauses then the markets tank as they begin to pivot lower on interest rates. Lower low not until 2024. As I have been telling you since summer of 2021, that the 2019 to 2020 pattern would repeat. We are in a Wycoff accumulation now with the bottom behind us. Will rally up to at least 30k if not 57k, possibly with a retest of 21K in March. Then it will roll-over with the recession in 2024 and make a lower low at your red trend line. Yes your 9k is coming but not until after an epic 2023 rally.
shelby3
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@JerryManders, S&P wants to bounce possibly to 4300. Both BTC and S&P now have bullish RSI divergences on the daily. Nasdaq is still within a broadening wedge pattern, which is bullish for now. Also both have harmonic bottoming patterns projecting for massive rallies ongoing. Ron Walker is drinking too much Koolaid. Finally he admits there could be another bounce. Again I do agree there could be one final pullback to $20 - 21k for Bitcoin in March or April. But there's also a risk of exploding to 30k because Bitcoin is doing the same catching up to gold it did in 2019 after the Chinese New Year and Hong Kong is opening Bitcoin buying to all Chinese suddenly & massive stimulus being poured into Bitcoin.
youtu.be/1iXJPB0vHlI (Stock Market CRASH: S&P 500 Bounces Off 4 Trendlines & The 50 Day Moving Average - Bounce Likely | Ron Walker)
shelby3
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@JerryManders, My charts on Feb 15 showed that gold has been more bullish than Bitcoin, as was the case in 2019, before Bitcoin rallied to catch up. See that gold is about to breakout to 3k as in did in H2 2019. The 2019 - 2020 is repeat as I identified as a repeating fractal back in summer of 2021!. I was so prescient and early. Then after the 14K peak in 2019, gold outperformed until after the March 2020 flash crash. Remember I am expecting a repeat of this pattern with a flash crash in Q1 or Q2 2024, except it will be worse with Bitcoin to make a lower low in 2024 ~10k. So I am expecting a correction into March/April, then a rally in June where Bitcoin catches up to gold as it did in 2019. Then underperformance of Bitcoin relative to gold until the crash in 2024.
GoT is seeing the same strength in gold on the stocks-to-gold ratio. Looks like one final rally on this chart for stocks into June, then gold will outperform from 2023 to 2024.
So I am looking to sell some Bitcoin in June, wait for a slight correction in gold, then buy and hold gold until 2024. Repurchase Bitcoin ~10k in 2024.
youtu.be/1-e5jgIumTA ( We Saw This Happen on the SP500 4 Times Throughout History | It Signaled Massive Turning Points. | Game of Trades)
shelby3
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Here was that post I made on Feb 15...
Whether there's a correction first—which I think is likely at least for the right shoulder of an inverse H&S (if not still in Wycoff accumulation)—Bitcoin is likely to shoot rapidly up to ~$35+k to catch up to gold. Then gold is likely to break out after that to repeat the outperformance from 2019 to 2020. I'm expecting 3k gold in 2024—likely due to escalation of NATO vs. Russia war. Gold is getting stronger, whilst Bitcoin is weakening (this should continue until legacy Bitcoin is restored as the Phoenix world reserve currency).