Based on the market behavior today, April 10, 2024, I have finally settled on a new structure model of this entire market top.
The bullish wave yesterday had all the punch of a D-wave in an Elliott triangle, but then stopped unexpectedly and turned south for a deep retracement.
I commented in another topic that this was a leading diagonal, but that structure is very close to just a corrective subwave, having half motive, half corrective character. It was followed by a deep retrace, which is characteristic of a leading diagonal. The retrace turned out to be a three-wave with the extra swing down below 68 k today that was quickly recovered. Thus all is very reminiscent of the exit out of a triangle. And that is what we have here.
Of course quite a few traders here have drawn triangles for this top. But they are all wrong, and none have fulfilled their projections. I have in private also contemplated a triangle of course, but I have had several models to work with, waiting for the price action to fit. That has finally happened.
The result is a large double combination correction, WXY, as shown in this chart. It has the triangle in the second, final component.
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This is not a change of interpretation, or complete reassignment from my original model. It is simply an extension of wave Y of the original WXY. Originally it was just a straight ABC down, but this evolved into tha A leg of the triangle, from which point forward the market simply oscillated horizontally in the triangle.
The market now appears ready for a large move upward.
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Ready for breakout?
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The peak represents a completed fifth wave, Therefore it is now looking to advance in wave three.
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Wave three has commenced, finally, after slowing this market considerably in wave two, an abc correction.
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Price is still hanging below 71000. This is really slow, while the halving is only eight days or nine away. The S2F model has historically shown that at halving the market price falls right on the model price, which is about 110 k. Trend line target for that week is about 100 k, which has been my guide. What gives, are we getting a rally or what?
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Well, there is movement now. Essentially pivot point trading. A good start.
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The 69 k coins are sold out, time to move on.
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The bears found some more cheap coins, and the bulls are buying them up, but that hasn’t helped the pricing much recently. But among the negativity and the nonsense of explanations rampant in the crypto press there is finally a positive sign today, as the price has finally come close to the correction low that was printed back in early March of about $59200, after reaching just under the 2021 ATH, and ending a fifth wave of the uptrend of winter since the 38.5 k low. I believe the down trend may finally have found it end with the seeming conclusion of a triple combination correction formed as the second half of the entire period.
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The end at 59.7 k has now come within about 500 points of the initial low, which I thought possible once again, and we are seeing a healthy rebound now. There was some hope since the weekend as the price rebounded to over 64 k, but the established bear trendline overhead rejected this advance, for another trip south.
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The market is making an attempt at recovery here, but progress is slow. The crypto media is running amok with negative prospective outcomes and explanations for the downturn. All nonsense. Given the fundamentally strong position of the market, this is a sign that the upswing is near. People just don’t see the forest for the trees.
Meanwhile, I have been re-examining the wave counts since the 38.5 k bottom in January, and have confirmed that the run from there to the peak at 72.7 k, not the ATH but the top of this latest drop, represents a complete five-wave progression. This means that the entire horizontal range is not all corrective, but the middle section was a bullish move in fifth wave. This is almost identical to the pattern in January. This also means that the drop of the past week or so, shown again in this chart is a separate correction from that in March. The top chart in this posting come close the correct structure already, but the middle section where I drew a triangle is actually a bullish diagonal, very similar in pattern.
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This last chart shows again the recent correction as a triple combination correction, WXYXZ. The long runs in this down trend, waves Y and Z, are clearly composed of three waves, which means that the whole drop cannot be counted as a 12345 impulse. This means that the correction is likely finished. This should be confirmed by the price action breaking above the declining bear trend line, here shown as a dashed line. Another indication of end is that the price has dropped to about the same level as in early March, which was the fourth wave of one lower degree. This is the first level we look for as target after completion of a fifth wave.
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With this update and preparation, we are ready to look at the new structure of the entire market top. The PA is clearly segmented into red and green section, for the corrective and motive parts, respectively. The fifth wave completion is clearly visible in the center part. This also makes intuitive and practical sense, as the trading of price action in that part felt genuinely bullish. I published an idea on that bullishness, in which I counted the large center wave as a first wave of a new uptrend, only to find that the following third wave, now identified as wave five, was cut short by onset of correction. We now have the explanation in this new assignment.
The only remaining task is to show and verify the structure of the uptrend from 38.5 k$, which did not fit onto this chart. It needs to verify that we actually have a valid waveform resulting in waves 3, 4, and 5 at this top. But trust me for right now…
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BEAR TREND LINE BREACH We were looking for confirmation of the end of the correction by breaking the trend line, and we got it shortly after the previous update here, in what looks very strong upward moves. Additional confirmation now will come from exceeding the last bear peak at 64.5 k.decisively.
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Still looking for continuation of the uptrend, but the price action has successfully back-tested the trend line, which clearly has become support. The narrow wave trading now often resolves in a spike up or down. Since this is a spinning top pattern of traditional TA, where it is considered a bullish pattern, I would expect a nice move up.
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The new uptrend seems confirmed now, with an enourmous vertical rise beyond the pivot point and R1, as well as the prior structural resistance of the down trend. Price is hesutabt briefly at R2 just below 65000. All this after the price collapsed this evening to form a new correction low, just a few points lower then previously. Some people claim the war action between Israel and Iran, and while that may have been a convenient excuse, price action blends in pretty well, just extending the last wave Z, by one abc.
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Bitcoin has now travelled almost 10000 points in one day, half down and half up. Perhaps we should expect the same just up before the halving tonight. Not even 100 blocks are left to be mined. But let’s not create a connection to the price action here.
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Next milestones. R3 @ 66.2 k X @ 66.9 k X @ 71.2 k Top @ 72.7 k ATH @ 73.7 k
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Thie drop yesterday was an interesting market event. It does appear to be caused by external events in the Mideast, because the market spiked right back to where it left off, and seemingly is continuing in the same trading pattern that was established before. This just illustrates that events don’t make markets, they produce noise. But I think we have to count the spike down to support in the wave counts now, and so I extended wave Z with an extra leg.
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Trading seems to be stuck in the area between and close to the R1 and R2 Fibonacci pivot point resistance levels today. These always turn out to be major levels in the market.
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41 blocks to be mined before todays non-event.
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So just as is logical and as predicted, the non-event happened and the world has not changed a bit, except that the miners now make more money than ever from transaction fees. Wish BTC holders had such a good April, but the chart shows those fortunes should soon change, with the imminent uptick in pricing.
Here is what it looks like post-halving, with a definitive break from the second correction of this market top range.
Notice the wave counting on the way up from 38.5 k, which I had promised to show, and which every one else gets wrong.
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This topic is now continued in my post “Bitcoin in April”
Wow, your analysis is very detailed and easy to follow. Thank you for sharing.
unbeldi
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@MyCryptoParadise, Thank you. I have accused of messy charts with lines all over, LOL. But without lines waves can be hard to follow; they help to see the forest for the trees.
eenmakkie
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looks like my wave ((4)) count came out that I posted here. on your chat
now we started wave ((5)). the problem I have with this is most ALTS started wave ((3)), what would mean BTC will end its cycle earlier as ALTS. what is a bit strange. or ALTS are making their (C) leg of the large ((B)) from bottom in 2023.
eenmakkie
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@eenmakkie, the only possibility is that BTC makes this wave ((4)) much larger in time. to give ALTS their time to finish wave ((3)).
unbeldi
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@eenmakkie, you are calling it a wave ((4)), but you don’t show that it is actually a fourth wave. I have shown that the entire structure is a combination of three parts, a fourth wave correcting the orthodox top, plus the corresponding fifth wave, plus the correction of that fifth. Therefore, the entire structure is not a fourth wave. Only the final top and bottom are either a 3-4 sequence or a fresh 1-2 sequence. I have not firmly made up my mind which pair. But I have to say I am leaning toward 1-2 because the correction is really too small for any established wave from earlier times last year.
unbeldi
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@eenmakkie, I don’t think so. Your wave three top is wrong. And it remains to be seen whether the bottom at 59.6 last week is actually a 4 or a new 2. I am not sure we will know for sure until BTC gets to the next stage between 110 and 120 k. Please look at my new topic “Bitcoin in April”. I am certain the run from 38.5 k to 74 k is closed and done. Overall I am keeping an open mind about the larger wave count. Counting it as a third wave is a possibility, but it could easily be just the first wave of wave three. What the Alts do is irrelevant to BTC still. As far as I can see, they have been waiting for BTC to emerge from this range.
unbeldi
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@eenmakkie, I am not sure or I don’t know actually which waves you are referring to for alts. The established ones didn’t make it out of crypto winter until September or October of 2023. Some new ones started exploding immediately out of the blocks in Nov/Dec. I suppose one could look at waves in alt market cap, TOTAL3 or so. But when it comes to BTC I don’t look for guidance from the alts, with one exception. Occasionally I look at ETH for guidance in details. On the contrary BTC still dominates the alts’ structure, qualitatively. For example the irregular top on 3/14 (wave B or X) is replicated in many of the alts and that clue is a recipe for solving a lot of wave puzzles there.