It looks like the boring market is going to become a little bit interesting. Which benefits can we get from such transformation? Will it be long term changes? Let's try to figure it out. I want to start from the following. We got two big bullish candles which were formed 08.02 and 18.02 and small candles around them. It can be a signal of coming interest to BTC and that probably big players start building long term positions. The market did not drop after upward movements and it just confirms that these positions were opened not for short term profits.
Another interesting and important fact, not only BTC but also altcoins made a good upward movement. It's another positive moment confirming interest to crypto. Now it's rather difficult to say, what was the real reason for such movement. But we can use this movement as a bullish signal.
The next question is - should we expect a new uptrend? Now we have the bearish market, the correction movement which was realized in a sideways movement. For starting a new uptrend, we have to get confirmation that the downtrend is over and we must get signals confirming the trend reversal. You can use different tools for this and I use Moving Average with 100 period. For me, it's the line of the main long term trade which I follow. If the price is below this line - we have a bearish market. If the price is above the line - we have a bullish market. The breakouts above/below this line confirm trend reversals.
If we look at BTC, we can see that the price tries to break the resistance zone formed by SMA100 and 4000.00 psychologically important level. It tells us that the downtrend is going to be reversed. Will we get a new uptrend after that of a new sideways movement, we will see later. Now we have to use only this signal confirming changes in the bearish market.
If we look at indicators, they also give bullish signals. MACD lines and histogram support further upward movement. RSI confirms the strength of buyers. DMI is bullish and confirms trend market conditions. ADX lines move upward, and it gives a signal that bulls become stronger.
When the market makes a new swing high, makes a retracement after that and forms a new swing low - only after that, we will be able to tell about a new uptrend. If the market can stay above 3500.00 support and start a new upward movement from this zone, it will be a good confirmation for starting the bullish period. As a variant, the price can drop below 3500.00 but bounce from the uptrend line - in such way we also will have confirmation for the uptrend. The only breakout below the new uptrend line will be a signal that bears have control under BTC and crypto. But for such falling, there must be solid fundamental reasons.
Concluding, we have to become positive with BTC and crypto as a whole. Good signals are confirming that buyers become more active and it can lead to starting the new uptrend. Will BTC be able to develop the good upward movement in the solid uptrend, we will see. For this, we will have to get new signals showing the zones of reversal after the retracement, and how active buyers will be in such period.
I remind you that it's just my vision about possible market movements. If you have your own, please share in comments. I will be glad to discuss with you. I will be very grateful for supporting my post by your LIKEs, if it's not so hard for you.
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Thank you very much for your likes and comments! I'm very grateful for this! Here the update
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Consolidation at the resistance level. If the market stays at this zone for several day or more, the correction will be realised in a range format. The market will be able to break 4000.00 and make a new local high ithout falling to the main uptrend line. Be ready for this. It's possible to place pending orders for buy above 4000.00 and use the breakout for entry the market. This can be done only if you want to open positions for long run. For other cases, it's better to wait for deeper correction movement and buy based on reversal signals.
You know the saying "one swallow does not make a summer "
BTC crossing MA 100 on daily...
Wow, how breathtaking... Let's see
It had already done that at the end of April 2018. After which it collapsed on May 6, 2018.
It had already done that at the end of July 2018. After which it collapsed on July 31, 2018.
It had already done that at the end of August 2018. After which it collapsed on September 5, 2018
Then it collapsed badly on November 14, 2018.
Just look at the MA100's angle of dip, how sharp MA100 is still going down. It is even sharper than the times before!
It is therefore totally silly to believe that it unlike the times before BTC will not collapse to the new lows this time around.
Grandmaster_Nitemare
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@ReallyMe, But only for a few days each. when you bought the breakout and sold the downbreak you could have made money with shorting and you would lost only a tiny bit with the long positions.
ArcWizard
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@ReallyMe, Yes but how many of those times where the weekly rsi coming from oversold conditions and also monthly stocastic is oversold now? That's one major difference.last time monthly stocastic was over sold was in 2015 i believe around the last major bottom .Not disagreeing only pointing out those conditions
ReallyMe
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@ArcWizard, @ArcWizard, Good point! However, if we talk about daily MA100, we should also look at the daily RSI
As with all these breakdowns before, Bitcoin is currently oversold (RSI = 71). If you draw a logical conclusion from the times before, a collapse is imminent and will happen soon when the RSI goes down from 71 a bit, to 65 or so
DLavrov
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@ReallyMe, it looks like you don't want to take into consideration many factors:
- market has been bearish for 1 year - it's a lot for the market which had great potential
- there are no solid fundamental news for crypto
- look at price action at 3000.00 level
- think about the market from position of a big player, when to invest in the market which has/ keeps potential for growing in long run.
Also, false breakouts above MA100 means nothing. There were just false breakouts. At that moments the buyers could not develop these breakouts into new uptrends. Fundamental news were not on their side. It's normal. It's a good example how one of the most interesting, reliable and profitable indicators works - I mean Moving Average.
ReallyMe
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@DLavrov, I think especially the big, shrewd investors know alle the dodges and the very fact that the market has been bearish for a year now clearly shows that they are hesitant. Why should they stock up on bitcoins at $3200 if they're pretty sure the price will go lower? The boring price action around $3500 in the past three month kindof reveals that there is still not enough demand.
DLavrov
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@ReallyMe, the reasons for going lower? Any strong fundamental reasons? Why the market did not drop before?
What is the bottom based on your opinion? Why you think so? Let's discuss.
ReallyMe
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@DLavrov, Why do I think that the true bottom is yet to come?
Because in my opinion one can not assume that every Bitcoin cycle is always the same and will always be the same. It's a common mistake many people do in their "BTC projections".
In my view, we have had three major *impulse* waves so far (2010-2011, 2012-2013, 2015-2017).
Now, the major *corrective* wave - we're in the middle of - will go somewhat deeper than everyone currently expects.
Considering all the signs and comparing to super cycles of different other assets, I think it's reasonable to expect that Bitcoin will complete its retracement at around $2800-2700 later this year.
It is just a wild guess, who is to know today, it could in fact turn out even much lower. YMMV, and of course I could be completely wrong. We will see... ;-)
See my last idea for more details
DLavrov
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@ReallyMe, ok, this time I can read your arguments. Of course everything can be, because any minute we can get news that crypto will be banned and we will see BTC below 1000, 500 or even 100 levels. Or just that big banks will decide to use BTC as a payment instrument - and BTC will jump to 50 000 very quickly. Let's wait and watch for the market and news around it.
ReallyMe
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@DLavrov, I believe that the news is just a fuss about the actual market movements that do not really or very seldom affect the price.
Rather, the news writers are clueless and guided by the facts of the actual price development and then write the appropriate news, as alibi-explanations cope.
BTC crossing MA 100 on daily...
Wow, how breathtaking... Let's see
It had already done that at the end of April 2018. After which it collapsed on May 6, 2018.
It had already done that at the end of July 2018. After which it collapsed on July 31, 2018.
It had already done that at the end of August 2018. After which it collapsed on September 5, 2018
Then it collapsed badly on November 14, 2018.
Just look at the MA100's angle of dip, how sharp MA100 is still going down. It is even sharper than the times before!
It is therefore totally silly to believe that it unlike the times before BTC will not collapse to the new lows this time around.