Good morning, traders. The weekend continued much the same for Bitcoin as it has for the past week now - horizontal range trading between $6350 and $6500. However, many traders, while staring at their 30 minute charts, may have missed the fact that Bitcoin has now spent the past three days above the July triangle. Volatility remains low, as does volume, which means that when it picks up we should see a large expansion of both in whichever direction price happens to move. Bitfinex BTCUSD shorts have continued to drop in a measured manner but the shorts/longs ratio still sits at 1.6124. Bitmex is showing shorts at 57% and longs at 43%. CME Bitcoin futures expire on Friday, so we could potentially see sideways movement continue through the rest of the week with volatility of some sort kicking in right before that expiration.
On the 4H chart, we can see the three dominant channels containing price at the moment - the blue horizontal TR, smaller ascending black channel within it, and the even smaller descending red channel within that one. If price pushes through the top of the red channel, then we should expect it to target the top of the black channel. Expected movement is normally to follow the red outline, however any kind of short squeeze could see a hard push all the way up to $7400/$7500 before we see any type of potential consolidation. Failure for the bottom of the black channel to support price has me watching the bottom of the blue channel and the equilibrium of the larger, black daily TR at $6340 for support. If price continues to fall through that level, then we are looking at $6095-$6255 as support. The 4H pivot sits at $6440, with any move and close above it being bullish for the pair. OBV continues to rise slightly.
We can see that the equilibrium of the blue TR is almost even with the 15 minute pivot. With RSI at oversold, the current downward movement should just be an attempt to fill the gap at $6379 that was left on 10/19. RSI has been trending higher since its low yesterday, while price has been trending lower, suggesting a price reversal is imminent. Additionally, price is printing a descending wedge within the descending red channel, suggesting a likely breach of resistance. This should have price at least targeting the top of the black channel thereby filling the 15 minute gaps up to $6475, dating back to 10/16. OBV has been trending up within a channel since 10/18, confirming price's continued appreciation.
I continue to watch the 1D TR between $6095 and $6384. Once price moves through the resistance or support of this TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is too much greater than any reward for me.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
On the 4H chart, we can see the three dominant channels containing price at the moment - the blue horizontal TR, smaller ascending black channel within it, and the even smaller descending red channel within that one. If price pushes through the top of the red channel, then we should expect it to target the top of the black channel. Expected movement is normally to follow the red outline, however any kind of short squeeze could see a hard push all the way up to $7400/$7500 before we see any type of potential consolidation. Failure for the bottom of the black channel to support price has me watching the bottom of the blue channel and the equilibrium of the larger, black daily TR at $6340 for support. If price continues to fall through that level, then we are looking at $6095-$6255 as support. The 4H pivot sits at $6440, with any move and close above it being bullish for the pair. OBV continues to rise slightly.
We can see that the equilibrium of the blue TR is almost even with the 15 minute pivot. With RSI at oversold, the current downward movement should just be an attempt to fill the gap at $6379 that was left on 10/19. RSI has been trending higher since its low yesterday, while price has been trending lower, suggesting a price reversal is imminent. Additionally, price is printing a descending wedge within the descending red channel, suggesting a likely breach of resistance. This should have price at least targeting the top of the black channel thereby filling the 15 minute gaps up to $6475, dating back to 10/16. OBV has been trending up within a channel since 10/18, confirming price's continued appreciation.
I continue to watch the 1D TR between $6095 and $6384. Once price moves through the resistance or support of this TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is too much greater than any reward for me.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.