BTC Long Term Trend Charted Using Lows To Set The Trend Angle
I Charted this Trend line because I think that a lot of the price action in BTC history was a bubble and therefore an unreliable prediction of true value.
The premise here is that the true value is closer to the all time lows, than to the all time highs, and the unsustainable spikes. However, I do believe that the all time lows are also undervalued.
To display a line that approximates the mean average true value of BTC above the plotted trend line using the all time lows, I drew a measurement line from the all time lows bottom, to the strong shoulder of the 2017 rally, but NOT to the spikey peak which I think is aberrant. I used this along with the next all time highs to set a trend line that seemed consistent for the real top that was parallel to the all times bottom (angle), and used my cloned measurement line to keep those equally spaced over time. As you can see this is a very conservative projection that does not calculate increased interest over time or world economy or fomo any more than existed looking backwards. There are many events that may change this line into an upward arc, or even a downwards trend. But I drew this as my own very conservative, almost worst case scenario for slow BTC growth excluding all other factors.
The top line can be seen as the upper limit barring bubble spikes and fomo that are unsustainable., the Bottom line is consistent with solid growing support trend over time. The real value is somewhere in between these two lines and BTC can expect to bounce along in between these two for the most part.
NOTE: while it has nothing to do with this chart or idea, I do believe that there is a mathematical bottom, where resistance becomes increasingly strong on the low end, because of the resistance of price action for stored work to go below a certain level (or loss). This mathematical bottom is BELOW the bottom trend line . but obviously the support offered by it is representative of the first lines of support of the mathematical bottom. This is my idea and my terminology, so googling it will not be helpful. It is based on the idea that unlike some alt coins and other speculative items, BTC DOES have intrinsic value, and would not immediately go to 0 if speculation ceased. It is unique, and there is a layer of value below the bottom of speculative pricing that represents a level that entities are increasingly reluctant to sell at, even if that reluctance would possibly result in total loss. It is because much of the investment in BTC is not just speculative, but is used as a savings account of stored work which does have intrinsic value, that cannot disappear without larger time factors. The speculative range is between the two trend lines , the mathematical bottom of increasing resistance to sell off is below them.
CONCLUSION
As you can see based on this ultra conservative projection, the next all time high above 20K, barring spikes or fomo bubbles which may never happen, would be in 2026, and only if that time coincided with an uptrend of the sine wave of the price action because it would be the very top of the box.
My "idea" is that we should be very cautious in measuring the speed and strength of the upward motion of BTC pricing. I myself have believed a different storyline that projected much faster growth, which MAY happen, but from a trading point of view, until factors change, it was a detrimental factor for me to be basing the success of long positions on the idea that the value would be increasing at a much faster rate, like my old flawwed projection of 18K by next March, which was literally a zoomed out timeline mistake when I saw the month, and assumed the year. When I realized this last night and replotted a realistic future, I was SHOCKED at how far the reality is from the hype. And it jarred me to the point that I exited a position that was based on much stronger upwards trend that had so much to accomplish in a short period of time. I went from thinking we were low on the trend box, to realizing that we were well inside of it.
I think we should not expect Moons and much Parabola. It IS still growing, but it is a jagged and slow road. I am hoping one day that the straight trend lines will become upward arcs, but I do not trade based on hope. I hope my dose of reality helps somebody who has a case of the moonies. I am a fan of BTC but we need to have perspective and accurate long sightedness as traders.
(IMHO BTC does have an intrinsic value as a store of owned work, not just from mining it, but more importantly from the volume of owned work capital. Literally purchasing entites stored work in a bottle.)
Cheers.
The premise here is that the true value is closer to the all time lows, than to the all time highs, and the unsustainable spikes. However, I do believe that the all time lows are also undervalued.
To display a line that approximates the mean average true value of BTC above the plotted trend line using the all time lows, I drew a measurement line from the all time lows bottom, to the strong shoulder of the 2017 rally, but NOT to the spikey peak which I think is aberrant. I used this along with the next all time highs to set a trend line that seemed consistent for the real top that was parallel to the all times bottom (angle), and used my cloned measurement line to keep those equally spaced over time. As you can see this is a very conservative projection that does not calculate increased interest over time or world economy or fomo any more than existed looking backwards. There are many events that may change this line into an upward arc, or even a downwards trend. But I drew this as my own very conservative, almost worst case scenario for slow BTC growth excluding all other factors.
The top line can be seen as the upper limit barring bubble spikes and fomo that are unsustainable., the Bottom line is consistent with solid growing support trend over time. The real value is somewhere in between these two lines and BTC can expect to bounce along in between these two for the most part.
NOTE: while it has nothing to do with this chart or idea, I do believe that there is a mathematical bottom, where resistance becomes increasingly strong on the low end, because of the resistance of price action for stored work to go below a certain level (or loss). This mathematical bottom is BELOW the bottom trend line . but obviously the support offered by it is representative of the first lines of support of the mathematical bottom. This is my idea and my terminology, so googling it will not be helpful. It is based on the idea that unlike some alt coins and other speculative items, BTC DOES have intrinsic value, and would not immediately go to 0 if speculation ceased. It is unique, and there is a layer of value below the bottom of speculative pricing that represents a level that entities are increasingly reluctant to sell at, even if that reluctance would possibly result in total loss. It is because much of the investment in BTC is not just speculative, but is used as a savings account of stored work which does have intrinsic value, that cannot disappear without larger time factors. The speculative range is between the two trend lines , the mathematical bottom of increasing resistance to sell off is below them.
CONCLUSION
As you can see based on this ultra conservative projection, the next all time high above 20K, barring spikes or fomo bubbles which may never happen, would be in 2026, and only if that time coincided with an uptrend of the sine wave of the price action because it would be the very top of the box.
My "idea" is that we should be very cautious in measuring the speed and strength of the upward motion of BTC pricing. I myself have believed a different storyline that projected much faster growth, which MAY happen, but from a trading point of view, until factors change, it was a detrimental factor for me to be basing the success of long positions on the idea that the value would be increasing at a much faster rate, like my old flawwed projection of 18K by next March, which was literally a zoomed out timeline mistake when I saw the month, and assumed the year. When I realized this last night and replotted a realistic future, I was SHOCKED at how far the reality is from the hype. And it jarred me to the point that I exited a position that was based on much stronger upwards trend that had so much to accomplish in a short period of time. I went from thinking we were low on the trend box, to realizing that we were well inside of it.
I think we should not expect Moons and much Parabola. It IS still growing, but it is a jagged and slow road. I am hoping one day that the straight trend lines will become upward arcs, but I do not trade based on hope. I hope my dose of reality helps somebody who has a case of the moonies. I am a fan of BTC but we need to have perspective and accurate long sightedness as traders.
(IMHO BTC does have an intrinsic value as a store of owned work, not just from mining it, but more importantly from the volume of owned work capital. Literally purchasing entites stored work in a bottle.)
Cheers.
Comment:
People scoffed. But my growth trend upper and lower limits and angle have proved to be spot on. Certain events may spike above or below, but barring civil wars and cyclones, this is the growth trend for this item. No moons, but a good investment until it is not, projected growth at THIS speed. Databyter