Last weeks high: $43584.42 Last weeks low: $41935.80 Midpoint: $40287.19
With the BTC sell off underway post ETF approval, we start the week hovering just under the previous weeks low of 41.5k. This area is the key S/R zone in my opinion and for now it looks like BTC bulls are struggling to reclaim that level.
I previously stated in the last weeks outlook that there is a strong magnet pulling price towards the 33K area FVG. To reach that area and react positively off the level would be very bullish and should begin the next leg up towards 50K+ going into the run up for THE HALVING.
For now BTC bleeding is causing the altcoin market to do the same, however as normal altcoins do tend to bleed against BTC as well for example SOL is now sub $90 and falling, good opportunities will present themselves in the coming days/weeks for the next leg up in the Bullrun but patience is key.
In conclusion the ETF news was a sell the news event, Blackrock and others are scooping up large sums of BTC at discounted rates as market makers push the prices lower. That in turn drags altcoin prices down with it and now it seems we're heading towards the 30K's. My final target would be ~33K before looking towards becoming bullish again. I will rethink that plan if BTC was able to reclaim 41.5K with strength.
Agreed!! You have provided a detailed and insightful analysis of the BTC price action and its impact on the altcoin market. But do you think this short-term pull back will remain until Halving or will we get bullish before Halving?
ProR35
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@MyCryptoParadise_Simon, That's an important question to answer for sure. My take on it is that we have roughly 90 days from now until the halving, and BTC took 80 days from that 33k FVG area to get to its local high of 49K. My estimate would be we see a similar pattern on the way down mirroring the rally so we spend 80 days grinding back down to 33K, including a quick wick down into that area as I don't expect price to stay there for very long. That would mean BTC would bottom at the beginning of April, I do think history will repeat itself with nearly a full month of bullish price action going into the event and from there BTC has to start targeting new highs with very little holding it back after this final shakeout.
I hope that answers your question, I will publish another idea showcasing what I have described on a chart too. Thank you for your comment!