Crypto Market Update - June 28, 2024

Bitcoin Daily Chart

On the Daily Timeframe, Bitcoin continues it's consolidation following the epic plunge back down to the bottom of it's range on Monday. The current and the last three Daily Candles can be considered Inside Bars, indicative of consolidation and tightening volatility. They herald a potential reversal, and a breakout - although the breakout could come in either direction.

Bitcoin's price found support at the 200 Simple Moving Average, a strong area of support.

Volume Profile Analysis also shows us that Monday's lows wicked down into a Low-Volume Node, an area of liquidity where buyers stepped in, and so far Bitcoin is maintaining itself back within the High-Volume Node of it's current range ($60,600 - $71,400).

Volume Delta shows that buyers have been in control today and over the past two trading days, and the Time Transformation Momentum Oscillator is recovering from it's overbought condition after printing a Reversal Buy Signal.

Bitcoin Mining Analysis

Analyzing the profitability and incentives of Miners has been a strong edge in my trading strategy.

We can see that Bitcoin's price is at a historical "Back the Truck Up" zone, where' Bitcoin's price has tested the Average Production Cost to mine a Bitcoin.

In Bitcoin's history, we have never seen price sustain itself below this level, however we have seen several occasions where price has wicked below, with the most notable being the March Meltdown in March of 2020.

The Hash Ribbons Indicator lets us know that Miners are still in capitulation, and I believe that Ordinals and Runes are the main cause of this, as the demand for blockspace remains high, allowing miners to earn significant revenues from fees rather than having to focus on block rewards, allowing them to continue to sell.

The NVT Indicator is still in a downtrend.

Simply put, we are at a critical area of support where historically, capital allocation into Bitcoin has been the correct play.

There are significant macro headwinds that may alter Bitcoin's reaction moving forward, potentially pushing us into unchartered territory.

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