As euphoria grows more and more reminiscent of the market peak in late 2021, there is one strong warning signal emerging. Based on the data from LookIntoBitcoin, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC underwent a considerable drop yesterday just as Bitcoin managed to break above $60,000. This figure dropped from 2,159 to 2,092, which inversely mirrors a rise in the number of addresses exceeding 100 BTC in mid-October 2023 (just a day or two before the fake news about Bitcoin Spot ETF approval kickstarted this steep part of the rally). While this does not necessarily warrant the end of the rally, it is a significant development that should not be overlooked (as it may suggest a change in the large speculator’s stance, which, up until yesterday, seemed very serious). Since this could potentially foreshadow a significant pullback in the market, we advise a caution to market participants.
Illustration 1.01 Interestingly, Bitcoin halted a decline slightly below the trendline, which connects peaks from the early stage of the rally.
Illustration 1.02 The price deviating too far from its 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA also makes a case for the pullback (retracement toward these moving averages).
Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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There was no significant change in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC overnight. But there was an interesting article from Coindesk, which suggested Bitcoin held by crypto miners has dropped to the lowest level since July 2021.
i think two way is ahead first btc goes to 135K and finally 220K from here or price will start correction toward 32K midterm...
Tradersweekly
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@arvine11, I have some doubts about seeing $100,000 this year and even more about higher price tags. But time will tell; things change quickly, and markets can run irrationally for longer than one expects.
arvine11
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@Tradersweekly i think its highly possible my second scenario to 32K. i'm sure we never see bitcoin under 30K in our life from today....
Tradersweekly
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@arvine11, I prefer to think about markets in terms of probabilities rather than assurances or guarantees, as there are no such things in the market. From my experience, being sure about a particular outcome is a dangerous game to play in the markets.
arvine11
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@Tradersweekly i think there is a certainity in markets about direction but who can reach to this intuition! i trust to my fibonacci analysis that is too perfect.