Here we have BTCUSD weekly on log scale and Coppock on log scale too.
Background: the last major correction started at ~ Nov, 2013 and finished Dec, 2016. It took ~ 1100days. Lowest was around its half, ~600 days.
Hip: my biased prediction use the assumption that the current correction is similar to 2013-2016 in duration. (And yes, I might be wrong here.)
Biased prediction of mine: - Correction started: Dec, 2017 - Lowest values might be coming around Aug, 2019.
Momentums I use: -- if Coppock crosses its own moving average - Crossing MAe200 - Some bit more difficult linear + logistic regression modells
So: I might be buying in under 4k, may be in mid-2019.
This is NOT a trading advise, just my biased ideas...Use stop-sell, always calculate risk and try to avoid FOMO and learn about linear regression models.
Criticism welcome!
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BTC did go under 4k much earlier than I predicted, BTC did cross MA200, ALMA200, VWMA 200. As of now, my indicators are contradicting each other, so I have no idea...whether I should buy in or wait. Those, who have no reserve to risk, shall not, I think. I wait 1-2 days before deciding and run some ARIMA meanwhile...
I don't get the red dotted line.. Are you just ignoring the chart for the past couple months and how it hasn't broken past $5800?
bricoleurs
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@roaken, Yes, I ignore it based on the following: BTC "could not" go bellow 340 from Apr, 2014 till Sep, 2014, than it did -- that is my reply to @FernandoMocer too re: "higher-lows"
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This is NOT a trading advise, just my biased ideas...Use stop-sell, always calculate risk and try to avoid FOMO and learn about time-series models.
bricoleurs
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My few and tired followers deserve an update :-) ..Correction speeded up as BTC crossed 400xALMA, so I had thought, I had to update my tactics. Somewhat risky, but these are my entry levels.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/p/PGrFikh1.png
Again: this is NOT a trading advise, just a biased idea of a non-pro. Calculate risk, use stops, avoid FOMO, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, learn about ARIMA and non-linear time-series regression modells. It helps a lot, I think, Ciao!
FernandoMocer
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making higher lights what does it mean? why people her doesn't know basics of trading?